If National wins ...

[Blackrose]

Here's the thing. It seems like JK had NZ in this steady as she goes make no massive changes, it's all good sort of thing going on. The problem is that when you do have some one that smiles and waves at everything; something that should have really been nipped in the bud in 2013, such as an introduction to LTV and debt to income bank loan lending for residential home loans at the "that's enough now stage" has by 2017 turned in to liability.

We could look at housing. Two facts still jump out - 51% of the population now rents (according to Shamubeel Eaqub's good report to the town planners last week) and NZ has a massive short fall of social housing and affordable housing that's not going to do well in the up coming credit crunch that looks like it's on the cards. ( I need not explain about how NZ's banks are the offspring of the big 4 banks in Australia and in turn rely on funding from the US)

NZ still has the most expensive housing market in the world and the Nats have played silly buggers with various immigration schemes which I won't go in to because I just can't say how much of that was good solid growth and skills migration vs some nasty stories about exploitation in gas stations, kitchen hand work and low end fast food.

We could also start to look at who is exactly benefited here it seems that the primary agriculture has gotten many a free pass on environmental issues, and cheap labor hire, not much has been done to really stimulate sustainable growth and jobs that don't require someone to be a relative to work there.

The poor of course have gone backwards. Paula Bennett has not really instituted any credible working schemes to help grow the economy and any IR laws to help with that.

The Nats have been in for what 8 years now? Why haven't they fixed this. I'm gonna be a contrarian (surprise surprise) and say its going to be a swing to Labor/Greens and independents with a question over Winston Peters. I could be horribly wrong - but I think what ever mechanism that removed JK, has not finished, and the last two by-elections in Mt Roskill and Mt Albert, have gone to labor candidates on solid margins.

[Bjauck]

I think National has got away with it, and will continue to do so because Labour still needs a convincing or good leader....

However the same forces behind Trump and Brexit - social and economic disaffection and the related backlash against immigration - will continue to grow in NZ in the absence of major policy shifts.

[elZorro]

Here's the thing. It seems like JK had NZ in this steady as she goes make no massive changes, it's all good sort of thing going on. The problem is that when you do have some one that smiles and waves at everything; something that should have really been nipped in the bud in 2013, such as an introduction to LTV and debt to income bank loan lending for residential home loans at the "that's enough now stage" has by 2017 turned in to liability.

We could look at housing. Two facts still jump out - 51% of the population now rents (according to Shamubeel Eaqub's good report to the town planners last week) and NZ has a massive short fall of social housing and affordable housing that's not going to do well in the up coming credit crunch that looks like it's on the cards. ( I need not explain about how NZ's banks are the offspring of the big 4 banks in Australia and in turn rely on funding from the US)

NZ still has the most expensive housing market in the world and the Nats have played silly buggers with various immigration schemes which I won't go in to because I just can't say how much of that was good solid growth and skills migration vs some nasty stories about exploitation in gas stations, kitchen hand work and low end fast food.

We could also start to look at who is exactly benefited here it seems that the primary agriculture has gotten many a free pass on environmental issues, and cheap labor hire, not much has been done to really stimulate sustainable growth and jobs that don't require someone to be a relative to work there.

The poor of course have gone backwards. Paula Bennett has not really instituted any credible working schemes to help grow the economy and any IR laws to help with that.

The Nats have been in for what 8 years now? Why haven't they fixed this. I'm gonna be a contrarian (surprise surprise) and say its going to be a swing to Labor/Greens and independents with a question over Winston Peters. I could be horribly wrong - but I think what ever mechanism that removed JK, has not finished, and the last two by-elections in Mt Roskill and Mt Albert, have gone to labor candidates on solid margins.

Good post, Blackrose, looks like you've been watching the situation carefully. That's pretty much how I read it too, immigration has gone unchecked too long, they've just cruised and backed off on any tough decisions. Except asset selloffs and other short-term rubbish. If National are so good at helping businesses, and here I'm talking all businesses, why do we have 11% fewer that are exporting, compared to five years ago?

We're going backwards, that's why. It's such a waste of our collective potential.

I'm looking forward to a Labour-Green govt at last, like you.

Good news in the Hagaman verdict.

[Blackrose]

Cheers El Zorro, Bjack -

I do think Bjack is right though, voter frustration and the same old same old isn't cutting the mustard for a bunch of middle NZ. That is indeed what drove Brexit and the inexplicable rise of Donald Trump. Still defamation cases are notoriously hard to win and what ever this means for Little in the run up to the election it's still not a good look.

Whilst the housing market wobbles, and the rise of the Winston Peter's whine on immigration is nothing new, it's the next round of property development failures that will hurt more in the long run.

[craic]

OK so here it comes. A $1,000 bet that Little WILL NOT be the Prime Minister after the next election. A golden opportunity for you elZorro, to demonstrate your confidence in the left.

[elZorro]

OK so here it comes. A $1,000 bet that Little WILL NOT be the Prime Minister after the next election. A golden opportunity for you elZorro, to demonstrate your confidence in the left.

You took your time Craic..I'm not so sure about the wording. What if Little is rolled before the election, as your lot is so keen on seeing? Labour could still win (much more unlikely though). You'd need to hope there won't be any sign of a property valuation collapse by September.

Still, it's a great offer, I could send the cash to my chosen charity, they're always needing it. Can I get back to you sir?

You have to be a bit worried for the homeless in Auckland. Just observing a close relative with their first rental's choice of tenant, she had a choice including a solo mum who was desperately keen, and a working couple. She made the hard-headed decision of course.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/nation...send-them'

[fungus pudding]

Cunliffe's leaving parliament presents a unique situation for a departing MP. Not one Labour member will be sorry to see him go, while every National MP will be deeply disappointed.

[craic]

I am astounded that you could allow yourself to utter the suggestion "What if Little is rolled before the Election"[ in considering my proposed wager. For me it's a a win-win situation. If he is rolled it would be a sign of desperation, if he isn't , then its a clear surrender.

QUOTE=elZorro;662696]You took your time Craic..I'm not so sure about the wording. What if Little is rolled before the election, as your lot is so keen on seeing? Labour could still win (much more unlikely though). You'd need to hope there won't be any sign of a property valuation collapse by September.

Still, it's a great offer, I could send the cash to my chosen charity, they're always needing it. Can I get back to you sir?

You have to be a bit worried for the homeless in Auckland. Just observing a close relative with their first rental's choice of tenant, she had a choice including a solo mum who was desperately keen, and a working couple. She made the hard-headed decision of course.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/nation...send-them'[/QUOTE]

[Bjauck]

Cunliffe's leaving parliament presents a unique situation for a departing MP. Not one Labour member will be sorry to see him go, while every National MP will be deeply disappointed.

A comedy series should be produced entitled the "Ex Labour Party Leader" similar to the Shaun Micallef's "The Ex PM". Australia has a had a few recent PM's; NZ a few Labour Leaders.

[craic]

Now there is a policy proposal from Mr Little to replace a number of our senior Meteorologists after the election on the grounds that they are not controlling the weather properly and causing expensive floods and the like. The final cull will be left to the Greens as they are seen to have the greatest insight into the will of God.