If National wins ...

[Major von Tempsky]

You have performed a logical non-sequitur EZ. "If the Greens hold their 15%.." That means the Greens keeping the 3% plus that they took off Labour with sympathy for Metiria Turei. The Greens can't have the 3% at the same time that Labour does. You're double counting.

[artemis]

Unemployment rate is interesting.
I know lots of people who are employed but under employed.
They don't have enough hours to live well (mostly around 30hrs) so they are employed but struggle.
The figures paint a rosier picture than reality.

Interesting. I also know quite a few people who work 30 hours a week or fewer. Including me.

More interesting would be a survey of a sample of part timers to delve into their circumstances a bit more. Specifically, are these single income households. With or without children. Government transfers received. Total household income. Rates of pay. Part time hours by choice or not.

Rates of pay - several of the part timers I know are on very high rates and have no desire to work more hours. Fewer hours, yes maybe.

Point I am making is that statistics do not necessarily show the full story. These part timers are not always shelf stackers at the Warehouse on minimum wage and fewer hours than they want / need.

[dobby41]

Point I am making is that statistics do not necessarily show the full story. These part timers are not always shelf stackers at the Warehouse on minimum wage and fewer hours than they want / need.

They wouldn't be in the group I was thinking about who work but need more hours.

[artemis]

They wouldn't be in the group I was thinking about who work but need more hours.

I get that, but how would anyone know numbers and impacts if all part timers are lumped in together. Maybe there are only a handful in the group you are thinking about. And most of the remainder live in Remmers and work part time for pocket money and social reasons. Who knows?

[dobby41]

I get that, but how would anyone know numbers and impacts if all part timers are lumped in together. Maybe there are only a handful in the group you are thinking about. And most of the remainder live in Remmers and work part time for pocket money and social reasons. Who knows?

I don't think they are in the stats at all.
My point is that they aren't 'part timers' - they are classed as full time workers (30hrs) but can't live easily on what they get, they need more.
They aren't captured in the unemployment stats.

[iceman]

Interesting take on the hype from John Armstrong : "prevailing wisdom" is that Ardern will win back all those former Labour voters, but there is little evidence as yet to make such an assumption. You could have been excused for thinking Labour had just won the general election, rather than indulging in a last-minute exercise in survival. Amidst such euphoria, it is easy to forget the scale of the leap required to bridge the gap between leader and deputy leader.

In her prior capacity as deputy, Ardern had run up all of four months' experience in a senior management position in the party. She has never stamped a particular personal vision on the policies that have emerged from the shadow portfolios she has held during her nine years as an MP. Neither has she shown that she possesses the finely-tuned political instincts of a John Key, a Richard Prebble or, crucially in her case, a Bill English.
Perhaps most important of all, she has never landed a sustained hit which really rattled Labour's old foe."

[elZorro]

Interesting take on the hype from John Armstrong : "prevailing wisdom" is that Ardern will win back all those former Labour voters, but there is little evidence as yet to make such an assumption. You could have been excused for thinking Labour had just won the general election, rather than indulging in a last-minute exercise in survival. Amidst such euphoria, it is easy to forget the scale of the leap required to bridge the gap between leader and deputy leader.

In her prior capacity as deputy, Ardern had run up all of four months' experience in a senior management position in the party. She has never stamped a particular personal vision on the policies that have emerged from the shadow portfolios she has held during her nine years as an MP. Neither has she shown that she possesses the finely-tuned political instincts of a John Key, a Richard Prebble or, crucially in her case, a Bill English.
Perhaps most important of all, she has never landed a sustained hit which really rattled Labour's old foe."

But she should be able to make amends for that, within seven weeks.

Suicide prevention providers Lifeline left out in the cold with a new contract being awarded, for twice the funds. Bill's wife is on the board of the new outfit.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11897877

[777]

I suppose the infighting within the party will hold off until after the election.

[winner69]

James Shaw keeping a low profile these days

World imploding around the Greens and with Jacinda on fire Greens going below 10% I reckon

[dobby41]

But she should be able to make amends for that, within seven weeks.

Suicide prevention providers Lifeline left out in the cold with a new contract being awarded, for twice the funds. Bill's wife is on the board of the new outfit.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11897877

Not a good look.
The new outfit will probably do well and they can crow about their succes - with double the funding of Lifeline.