If National wins ...

[iceman]

Yes, the fringe doth protest a lot. I think most people are over it and don't give them much weight.

I think that's exactly it. The majority of people in the centre of politics are over the fringe protests. The more the protests go on, the more centre voters will be inclined to get out and vote National in 2014.
As I suggested many many months ago, I think we will see a National Government after the 2014 election, with the Conservative Party and Act as support partners.

CP will take enough votes of Winston First to exclude them from Parliament (unless they win an electorate seat somewhere) and Green-Labour will not have enough between them. It will be Labour that hasn't got the support partners to get them across the line, not National like the media has been going on about for a long time !

[iceman]

MRP - 2.10 - National screwed punters by 40c
MELCA - sub issue

National (and some of their rabid, frothing-at-the-mouth supporter) can blame Labour and/or the Greens as much as they like but them's that bought and lost the public floats will feel right royally screwed ... with the shyster Key getting their scowls of contempt ... and their votes will not be going to National this time around.

Of course the Labour/Green ambush and blatant wealth destruction on the eve of the MRP float has nothing to do with the so far negative sentiment eh ?!

But do not despair my friend, once the radical Green/Labour confederacy policies have been rejected this time next year, confidence will return in leaps and bounds, including MRP and MELCA shareholders reaping the benefit of their commitment

There has indeed been some "frothing-at-the-mouth", even on this forum, but not so much from National leaning posters !

[slimwin]

"frothing-at the-mouth"! Well you certainly are emotive. You'd go well on the front lines of a protest Belg.

[artemis]

Of course the Labour/Green ambush and blatant wealth destruction on the eve of the MRP float has nothing to do with the so far negative sentiment eh ?! But do not despair my friend, once the radical Green/Labour confederacy policies have been rejected this time next year, confidence will return in leaps and bounds, including MRP and MELCA shareholders reaping the benefit of their commitment There has indeed been some "frothing-at-the-mouth", even on this forum, but not so much from National leaning posters !

Big IF, iceman. National and Labour/Green are more or less neck and neck at the moment. Could go either way. Expect to see a popular/populist policy announced by L/G close to the election. Interest free student loans got them over the line once, something similar may do it again. For example - what say they announced a stimulus cheque a la the US of A? They would find some results to back up the multiplier effect to the economy, ignore other results, and buy a truckload of votes.

[Cuzzie]

Business confidence rises to near 15-year high and a sure sign of the economy doing well is cranes all over the Auckland skyline. Yeah it looks like five years in and National is starting to heal NZ from the dark Clark years. The last thing we need now is a left wing Govt. to stuff it all up again.
Links are/ http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11164808 & Business confidence rises to near 15-year high

belgorion & elzorro will be along shortly to say how that is bad news for NZ, just like they said Labours poor Current account balance was good when clearly it was horrible. Spin doctors look silly when they try to alter the facts. Fact is National has turned our economy around and we are now enjoying the benefits - even the Greens and Labour supporters.

[elZorro]

Business confidence rises to near 15-year high and a sure sign of the economy doing well is cranes all over the Auckland skyline. Yeah it looks like five years in and National is starting to heal NZ from the dark Clark years. The last thing we need now is a left wing Govt. to stuff it all up again.
Links are/ http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11164808 & Business confidence rises to near 15-year high

belgorion & elzorro will be along shortly to say how that is bad news for NZ, just like they said Labours poor Current account balance was good when clearly it was horrible. Spin doctors look silly when they try to alter the facts. Fact is National has turned our economy around and we are now enjoying the benefits - even the Greens and Labour supporters.

This post would be funny, if I didn't think that you believe what you've written

It wasn't Labour's current account balance, it was the entire country's current account. Govt is a smaller portion of the full economy, and no-one has ever seen the economy, but apparently a strong economy relies on growth and profits.

What did you think of the budget surplus/deficit trend charts then Cuzzie? Did Labour show up there as overspending? No, they did not, they had profits that they used to pay back old debt, debt that could have been there since the Think Big projects. I'm not a spin doctor, I like digging up facts to expose false political comments though.

National has not turned NZ's economy around in the last five years, although it is climbing out of a big dip from the GFC. There has been a lowering of our income compared to Australia, a bigger gap between rich and poor, record budget deficits and public sector borrowing to fill the gap. GDP/capita is still slightly below that achieved by Labour in 2008. The tax take/govt revenue is similarly behind despite a bigger population. Unemployment is well up, especially for younger work-age people. The low minimum wage constrains spending patterns. An ongoing housing shortage in Christchurch and Auckland is fueling already out of control house prices there. Some provincial centres are losing employers and options, with no apparent plan by National to address much of this.

These, I believe, are all facts.

[Cuzzie]

I hate saying I told you so, but I told you so. Looks like any negative news for Labour will be shifted towards National and any positive news will be chopped down by these two. I feel your pain, really I do.
elzorro, you both said "It wasn't Labour's current account balance, it was the entire country's current account." If you want to read it like that then I'll follow your lead & simply state that “under the National Govt. years the entire country did far better than under the Labour Govt. years using the current account balance as reference” . There is no hiding that fact after both you and belgarion just eluded to that fact. You can change the goal posts all you like, but you can't alter the fact which is “New Zealand as a whole does better under a National Govt. than under a Labour Govt.”

[elZorro]

I hate saying I told you so, but I told you so. Looks like any negative news for Labour will be shifted towards National and any positive news will be chopped down by these two. I feel your pain, really I do.
elzorro, you both said "It wasn't Labour's current account balance, it was the entire country's current account." If you want to read it like that then I'll follow your lead & simply state that “under the National Govt. years the entire country did far better than under the Labour Govt. years using the current account balance as reference” . There is no hiding that fact after both you and belgarion just eluded to that fact. You can change the goal posts all you like, but you can't alter the fact which is “New Zealand as a whole does better under a National Govt. than under a Labour Govt.”

In which way is the country better off Cuzzie? There has been less investment in productive assets since the GFC, and less churn in the property market. So the public and business sector have tended to save or pay off loans, rather than take on new ones. Acting in the opposite fashion, the National Govt has had to borrow to meet its commitments, they had no other ideas, except for state asset selloffs, and that couldn't meet the shortfall.

Even when the govt budget crawls back to a small surplus (2015?), there will still be a whole lot of new National Govt debt that the country will need to repay at some stage, and pay the interest on.

A current account balance is negative in a lot of countries, and ours under Labour was reasonably healthy, because it certainly wasn't the govt adding to that negative balance, it was all the private sector, as they made investments. In other words, under Labour, the public at large were more confident than they have been under the National Govt, and a post GFC world.

This page from Te Ara is interesting, showing that a big component of the current account deficit is the extra foreign investment that flowed into NZ (in 2007 as an example). Over the period that Labour was in, imports exceeded exports generally, and some of that would have been large assets being purchased. But on a bigger scale, foreign investment into NZ trended ever higher, and NZers investing overseas didn't match it. That was the main factor in the increasing negative current account. If anything, that can be seen as an endorsement of the work Labour did while in office.

http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/diagram/...september-2007

Previous governments have been more concerned with a balance of payments deficit. The floating exchange rate and our ability to borrow overseas relatively easily means that our deficits in the current account can be seen as sustainable. This is a fairly detailed article on the situation. Pity it's not current, but it was probably compiled during the Labour term.

http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/balance-of-payments/page-1

[Major von Tempsky]

Current account balance ( we are now paying our way), growth predicted by OECD etc as 3.6% next year, lower unemployment, polls on happiness....there's heaps of evidence, crime at an all time low (Sunday Star Times headline page A10 today)...

And another one from last night - carpet bagger Poto Williams with experienced Jim Anderton as her campaign manager, Cunliffe campaigning for her continuously and other Labour shadow ministers.....only managed a majority in Christchurch East 1,000 less than Lianne Dalziel.
Next we have a referendum which will probably have a lower turnout than any other referendum and if you add the Yes vote to didn't bother voting vs the No vote Labour and Greens will have received another good whacking.

[elZorro]

Current account balance ( we are now paying our way), growth predicted by OECD etc as 3.6% next year, lower unemployment, polls on happiness....there's heaps of evidence.

And another one from last night - carpet bagger Poto Williams with experienced Jim Anderton as her campaign manager, Cunliffe campaigning for her continuously and other Labour shadow ministers.....only managed a majority in Christchurch East 1,000 less than Lianne Dalziel.
Next we have a referendum which will probably have a lower turnout than any other referendum and if you add the Yes vote to didn't bother voting vs the No vote Labour and Greens will have received another good whacking.

MVT, are you talking about the current account balance or the improving budget deficit?

Regarding the byelection, I cannot let that pass

I think on balance, that Labour's candidate won with a very healthy majority, considering the electorate numbers were about 10,000 down on the previous election.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11165189

and more:

http://tvnz.co.nz/politics-news/elec...rnment-5737201