If National wins ...

[elZorro]

Oh dear ...

The government expects to post an obegal deficit of $2.3 billion in the current financial year ending June 30 before returning a surplus of $86 million the following year

... but ...

The Crown's operating balance before gains and losses (obegal) was a deficit of $1.79 billion in the six months ended December 31, $380 million wider than forecast in its Dec. 17

Source: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11207173

So govt is predicting a surplus of $86m but in one quarter they were $380m out? ... Personally ... I think a surplus is a long way off!

But everyone trusts that nice Mr Key so nobody will be listening to me.

Where have you been Belge? I have had to carry the leftie can for (it seems like) weeks while you argue about religious matters elsewhere on the forum. During this time, Cuzzie has learnt how to spell. It's been interesting.

I have placed some money on Labour/Greens winning the election. Do you think they have a lot more chance, now that Shane Jones and others have upped the ante?

From your article: The core residual cash deficit was $653 million higher than forecast at $7.27 billion largely due to the smaller tax take. The cash balance is forecast to return to surplus in 2017, after which the government plans to start reducing debt.

Good one. Bill English has put out a report showing the nasty dips after the GFC, but on the future timescale into 2020 or so (which is all completely hypothetical) it shows the metrics returning to normal ,or even better than Labour had them at, in 2008.

A lower than expected tax take is behind the shortfall. This makes the very slender, tiny, predicted budget surplus a lot more difficult. They'll slash something just to show they can meet the surplus deadline, but it'll be a fake surplus.

Cuzzie, I had to post the earlier article because I like baiting the right-wingers myself. I did agree with it though.

[westerly]

Nice link EZ, that's if your looking though a loony left point of view. Look, there is no doubt about it, the Christchurch rebuild has boosted the figures, but you can't blame National for that. They have got the books moving in the right direction through our most costly disaster, that's what I call a job well done so far. Our Dairy Industry is on a roll, why would you try and make these two positives a big negative? You've got what your given and in this case National has turned that into Gold. Well done Key, the figures speak for themselves. Nothing lasts for ever, Nationals making hay while the sun is shining, what's wrong with that? ..... Nothing!


[FONT=arial]Oil & Gas is coming to boost our economy even more very soon (watch this space) and add that to the number of new immigrants and Kiwis returning to God Zone, then you have more positive news on the horizon.

We are doing good and I know that non-right wing thinkers & tinkers need to come up with a negative reason as to why our economy is full steam ahead leading up to an election. That's all Peter Lyons rant against our economy doing well is, negative hand-braking of positive news, otherwise known as sour grapes.

Finally, if Peter Lyons was a rock star in Economics, he would be Pumice - Something spewed out and is a soft rOCK!!!

If your economy is dependent on more people coming into the country somethings wrong. Only real world problem is too many people.
As for oil and gas, they are only looking, haven't actually found anything yet.
The dairy industry is going ok but has high debt levels, is causing severe environmental damage and is reliant on high prices continuing,
Australia has found with the mining industry that demand is not guaranteed.
The worry is National may get back in followed by Labour at the next election who will again take the flak for cleaning up the the Countries finances

westerly

[Cuzzie]

If your economy is dependent on more people coming into the country somethings wrong. Only real world problem is too many people.
As for oil and gas, they are only looking, haven't actually found anything yet.
The dairy industry is going ok but has high debt levels, is causing severe environmental damage and is reliant on high prices continuing,
Australia has found with the mining industry that demand is not guaranteed.
The worry is National may get back in followed by Labour at the next election who will again take the flak for cleaning up the the Countries finances

westerly

Something is wrong alright westerly, not enough people to boost our economy. BTW, National & you are brothers in arms on that one and I'm the one going against the grain here. This will get you up to speed. http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/busine...-more-migrants

You need to do some research before making bold claims that new oil & gas corps have not found anything yet and are just looking. TAG Oils Cardiff oil field target is currently 12km long by 3km wide and has not one but three zones. They will be playing Cardiff over many years to come. Cardiff is a new play. In Taranaki, TAG has reported increased revenue for the three months ended December 31, up 19 per cent to $12,939,442 when compared to the same period last year. For the nine-month period it was up 35 per cent to $43,522,224. That's small compared to what will be coming. When Cardiff comes on-line their revenue should explode.
Then there's the East Coast. TAG Oil is proceeding with its Ngapaeruru-1 well east of Dannevirke after tests have confirmed the presence of petroleum-bearing rock which will respond well to fracking, but because the source rock is naturally fractured, fracking might not be necessary. westerly that is just Tag Oil.
East West are all smiles but I'll let you do the research ion that. They just made an easy 5 million doing some drilling for TAG and stand to earn 30% profits from now on.
NZEC have had ups and downs in the last quarter, but are looking good for the next two quarters both in Taranaki and the East Coast. NZEC's new CEO of NZ operations, David Robinson is a sign of great things on the horizon.
MES are sitting on more oil & gas on the East Coast than TAG or NZEC but are letting them carry the burden. Smart move and I have plenty of their shares.
westerely, you don't know much about oil & gas in NZ huh?
The dairy industry is on fire right now, but can understand the need for you to say it's just OK. I feel your pain there.

Your last statement is outrageous, we need National to win the next eletion more than ever now. Not just to carry on fixing up Labours over spending when they ran the joint, but to keep out the Labour & Green left version of the Nazi party from more social engineering projects on us. My feeling now is that the Green Labour combo will either sneak in and win, but only just, or it will be a landslide victory for National.

[Cuzzie]

Oh dear ...

The government expects to post an obegal deficit of $2.3 billion in the current financial year ending June 30 before returning a surplus of $86 million the following year

... but ...

The Crown's operating balance before gains and losses (obegal) was a deficit of $1.79 billion in the six months ended December 31, $380 million wider than forecast in its Dec. 17

Source: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11207173

So govt is predicting a surplus of $86m but in one quarter they were $380m out? ... Personally ... I think a surplus is a long way off!

But everyone trusts that nice Mr Key so nobody will be listening to me.

belg, just think where we would be with the big spending Clark Govt. still at the helm right now. The comparison with Ireland would be well deserved if that was the case.

[Cuzzie]

Labour only knew how to increased power prices.


New Zealand producers' input and output prices fell in the fourth quarter, driven by lower electricity prices.

Producer output prices, which measures the prices received by New Zealand producers, fell 0.4 percent in the final three months of 2013, according to Statistics New Zealand. Input prices, representing the prices of goods and services used by New Zealand producers, fell 0.7 percent in the quarter.

The output price index for electricity and gas supply fell 8.7 percent in the quarter, as prices for generated electricity fell. The input price fell 9.8 percent, the fastest pace of decline since the September 2012 quarter, due to lower electricity prices and electricity spot-market conditions, the government statistician said.

"Lower electricity prices contributed to both the lower input and output PPIs in the latest quarter," prices manager Chris Pike said.

The output prices for dairy product manufacturing fell 0.2 percent following gains of 14 percent in each of the two previous quarters, as manufacturers received lower export prices for butter and cheese.

The dairy cattle farming output price index was unchanged in the December quarter after reaching a record in the September quarter, as the forecast farm-gate milk price for the 2013/14 season was unchanged from the previous quarter.

Meat and meat product manufacturing input prices rose 1.9 percent due to higher prices for prime sheep and lamb.

The price index for export logs rose 4.3 percent in the quarter due to higher overseas demand, up 23 percent for the year, the highest annual increase in three years. The price index for domestic logs rose 2.2 percent in the quarter, reflecting higher demand associated with more new house consents.

Who wants Solar panels to power your light bulb? The Greens say it will save you money. Reality is- It will cost you a fortune to say I'm a Greenie these days.

[elZorro]

Something is wrong alright westerly, not enough people to boost our economy. BTW, National & you are brothers in arms on that one and I'm the one going against the grain here. This will get you up to speed. http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/busine...-more-migrants

You need to do some research before making bold claims that new oil & gas corps have not found anything yet and are just looking. TAG Oils Cardiff oil field target is currently 12km long by 3km wide and has not one but three zones. They will be playing Cardiff over many years to come. Cardiff is a new play. In Taranaki, TAG has reported increased revenue for the three months ended December 31, up 19 per cent to $12,939,442 when compared to the same period last year. For the nine-month period it was up 35 per cent to $43,522,224. That's small compared to what will be coming. When Cardiff comes on-line their revenue should explode.
Then there's the East Coast. TAG Oil is proceeding with its Ngapaeruru-1 well east of Dannevirke after tests have confirmed the presence of petroleum-bearing rock which will respond well to fracking, but because the source rock is naturally fractured, fracking might not be necessary. westerly that is just Tag Oil.
East West are all smiles but I'll let you do the research ion that. They just made an easy 5 million doing some drilling for TAG and stand to earn 30% profits from now on.
NZEC have had ups and downs in the last quarter, but are looking good for the next two quarters both in Taranaki and the East Coast. NZEC's new CEO of NZ operations, David Robinson is a sign of great things on the horizon.
MES are sitting on more oil & gas on the East Coast than TAG or NZEC but are letting them carry the burden. Smart move and I have plenty of their shares.
westerely, you don't know much about oil & gas in NZ huh?
The dairy industry is on fire right now, but can understand the need for you to say it's just OK. I feel your pain there.

Your last statement is outrageous, we need National to win the next eletion more than ever now. Not just to carry on fixing up Labours over spending when they ran the joint, but to keep out the Labour & Green left version of the Nazi party from more social engineering projects on us. My feeling now is that the Green Labour combo will either sneak in and win, but only just, or it will be a landslide victory for National.

Cuzzie, whoa! Labour's overspending, Labour/Green Nazi party, social engineering..

Actually National has been doing some social engineering itself, and most of that has gone down OK. Name any Labour/Green MP or aspirant who is a communist or a fascist? Labour paid off a lot of old debt in their last terms. It's National who are overspending, they have been doing that every year they have been in office since 2008. Now the tax income seems to be lower than they were hoping for, with their budget surplus date looming.

That would be because the ag sector, amongst others, knows all about boom/bust, and in the boom they also try not to pay any extra tax if they can help it. You can't get out of company or private tax by paying off old debt, but you can increase your effective costs in a given year by buying new depreciable assets or increasing normal spend. Have a look at new car and commercial/farm vehicle sales and you'll get the drift. That is squandered cashflow.

You don't often see the headline "Provincial NZ crying out for workers" because large landowners have very few staff to the hectare. They have the cash some years, but buying assets that often come from larger centres, ultimately overseas, takes precedence. It's a lot simpler.

This is all part of the disappointment that I have with NZ's economy, and I'm not the only one. Why can't National see the big picture? We might be churning out tertiary graduates, but where will they all go? Will they start up new businesses and employ people, will they help build smart exporters of manufactured high-value goods? How will govt policy push this along?

National's policy settings have forced many school leavers to try tertiary training, because there are not enough jobs for unskilled new workers. Put them in the right sort of job and they could immediately produce a good wage and a profit for a business, but business owners are tending not to take the risks. Instead more than is healthy are selling out, closing down, giving up.

That will be John Key's legacy, one which I hope will start in 2014. We need to start rebuilding the place, as Westerly said.

Chalkie has some insight on the Grocery sector. Again minimising tax is the go. Countdown have been increasing their gross margin to over 23%, while loading the NZ stores with Australian debt, to reduce any tax they need to pay the NZ govt.

http://m.stuff.co.nz/business/opinio...-the-woods-yet

[Cuzzie]

Cuzzie, whoa! Labour's overspending, Labour/Green Nazi party, social engineering..

Actually National has been doing some social engineering itself, and most of that has gone down OK. Name any Labour/Green MP or aspirant who is a communist or a fascist? Labour paid off a lot of old debt in their last terms. It's National who are overspending, they have been doing that every year they have been in office since 2008. Now the tax income seems to be lower than they were hoping for, with their budget surplus date looming.

That would be because the ag sector, amongst others, knows all about boom/bust, and in the boom they also try not to pay any extra tax if they can help it. You can't get out of company or private tax by paying off old debt, but you can increase your effective costs in a given year by buying new depreciable assets or increasing normal spend. Have a look at new car and commercial/farm vehicle sales and you'll get the drift. That is squandered cashflow.

This is all part of the disappointment that I have with NZ's economy, and I'm not the only one. Why can't National see the big picture? We might be churning out tertiary graduates, but where will they all go? Will they start up new businesses and employ people, will they help build smart exporters of manufactured high-value goods? How will govt policy push this along?

National's policy settings have forced many school leavers to try tertiary training, because there are not enough jobs for unskilled new workers. Put them in the right sort of job and they could immediately produce a good wage and a profit for a business, but business owners are tending not to take the risks. Instead more than is healthy are selling out, closing down, giving up.

That will be John Key's legacy, one which I hope will start in 2014. We need to start rebuilding the place, as Westerly said.

Chalkie has some insight on the Grocery sector. Again minimising tax is the go. Countdown have been increasing their gross margin to over 23%, while loading the NZ stores with Australian debt, to reduce any tax they need to pay the NZ govt.

http://m.stuff.co.nz/business/opinio...-the-woods-yet

That's all hogwash EZ and most of NZ knows it. Labours overspending can not and will not be written off by a stoke of a pen like you are trying to do. It's a big problem for Labour and the voting public have not got short memories like you. National are going great leading into our next election, time to get those left-wing propaganda programs rolling. Cunliffe is so lazy he has even stopped talking B.S & he better get cracking soon.

This from the Herald this morning. Cunliffe-led Labour is still at the starting blocks.

You have got to be joking concerning Social engineering and the Labour party EZ. The Global Queen of social engineering is our very own Helen Clark. Now she in a position to really enforce her passion with the U.N. l'd like a full on debate with you over that one. Your be found wanting within minutes EZ so go ahead, make my day. I'll tell you what, I'm going out shortly and wont be back until mid-afternoon, so take your time and give me your best shot. Bring it on baby.

EZ, I bet your happy electricity prices have dropped, care to comment?

Finally, why is it that all the serious issues and negative news at the moment is all about our opposition partys? Normally the heat goes on the current Govt. heading into an election. The answer is simple, National are going great guns right now, there is plenty of solid financial news for NZ and that's thanks to professional guidance from our Govt. National are peaking just right and the polls confirm this. Can the Green Labour party catch up? With what - what have they got? I'm seeing Nada right now.

[elZorro]

That's all hogwash EZ and most of NZ knows it. Labours overspending can not and will not be written off by a stoke of a pen like you are trying to do. It's a big problem for Labour and the voting public have not got short memories like you. National are going great leading into our next election, time to get those left-wing propaganda programs rolling. Cunliffe is so lazy he has even stopped talking B.S & he better get cracking soon.

This from the Herald this morning. Cunliffe-led Labour is still at the starting blocks.

You have got to be joking concerning Social engineering and the Labour party EZ. The Global Queen of social engineering is our very own Helen Clark. Now she in a position to really enforce her passion with the U.N. l'd like a full on debate with you over that one. Your be found wanting within minutes EZ so go ahead, make my day. I'll tell you what, I'm going out shortly and wont be back until mid-afternoon, so take your time and give me your best shot. Bring it on baby.

EZ, I bet your happy electricity prices have dropped, care to comment?

Finally, why is it that all the serious issues and negative news at the moment is all about our opposition partys? Normally the heat goes on the current Govt. heading into an election. The answer is simple, National are going great guns right now, there is plenty of solid financial news for NZ and that's thanks to professional guidance from our Govt. National are peaking just right and the polls confirm this. Can the Green Labour party catch up? With what - what have they got? I'm seeing Nada right now.

I'm going to be busy too, today. But John Armstrong's piece assumes that Labour will obligingly feed journalists with data from now until the election. The average voter possibly has a shorter attention span than that. I'm sure we'll be hearing plenty from David Cunliffe before the election date, but closer to the event.

In the meantime MP Shane Jones has fired a very accurate first salvo. It's not all about Labour and the smaller parties. Why did National do nothing about this cosy supermarket situation before now? They also had the heads up.

We have already covered 'nanny state' policies on the thread, and I'm pleased to see no smoking in public places, I don't smack my children so at least they won't have to ponder about that as they get older, and numerous other things Labour did over the years are now part of how NZ operates. Part of our culture. National has by and large left them in place.

I think they made a mistake with the lower drinking age though. Put it back to 20 unless we can educate every youth, who thinks it's OK to drink until they can't remember what's happened.

[Major von Tempsky]

Electricity is getting cheaper? Gosh it must be time for huge Government and local body subsidies for solar power and windpower to produce lots of electricity at the time of day it's least needed..... :-)

[elZorro]

Electricity is getting cheaper? Gosh it must be time for huge Government and local body subsidies for solar power and windpower to produce lots of electricity at the time of day it's least needed..... :-)

MVT, I would have thought you'd know more about how the power grid works. It costs energy to send electricity long distances, like all the way from S.I. hydro schemes to Auckland, but they'll do it if they have to. So a fair bit of it is lost as heat before it even gets there (3%-7%). That's a waste. Wealthier NZers in urban areas can instead generate a bit of their own power needs, selling the rest to the grid for use in local daytime businesses. By that I mean at a very fair price, say 75% of the retail price, because it allows hydro lakes to be kept closer to full, for the bad winters, and it won't be all the energy a retailer buys. Hydro is fast acting, as many smaller stations on small dams and rivers are ready anytime. It's a click of a button, even automatic, done with telemetry.

Solar PV won't supply all of our power, whoever said it would. But the Greens policy will get us up to speed, and maybe it'll be enough to stop the building of any more thermal power plants in NZ. This is assuming that we don't get into more energy-intensive industry here.

Solar water heating is also well under-utilised, should be part of this policy. Unless I'm missing something, it seems too obvious.