If National wins ...

[Harvey Specter]

Doesn't matter. As long as their supporters are confident of winning Epsom the party vote will lift.

yes but unless there is an overhang (which there wont be if they bring in list MPs), then it is just a shift from National to ACT.

Last time they were confident they would win Epsom but the stuff ups around the cup of tea, and maybe the way in which Brash took over the party meant they only got the same % as the one list MP they got. In fact it would have been better if they got no list votes as that would have created a positive overhang in favour of the right.

[fungus pudding]

yes but unless there is an overhang (which there wont be if they bring in list MPs), then it is just a shift from National to ACT.

Last time they were confident they would win Epsom but the stuff ups around the cup of tea, and maybe the way in which Brash took over the party meant they only got the same % as the one list MP they got. In fact it would have been better if they got no list votes as that would have created a positive overhang in favour of the right.

Yes except some will be votes that might have gone to Winston first, and there's no guarantee that he will coalesce with National, although he probably will. And some could have been heading towards The conservative mob (althouigh they probably don't count cos they won't make it.)

[craic]

I agree, but a good chance of it being a one term government. I mean - Winston and Norman?

And just to add there was some interesting analysis on Kiwiblog yesterday - if the same pattern occurs this year and complacent National voters stay home, National could well lose.

http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2014/05/it...e_in_2011.html

Sorry but complacency is mostly a left wing flaw. National voters, including ACT and all the rest will be down there voting. This is said through the bottom of a craigs whisky glass that came wiht the bottle of whisky that my mate was given prior to his demise a week or so ago. His widow felt that I should have it so tonight I am drinking it straight in his company, real or otherwise. He was a hard left wing supporter, a New Zealand Seamans Unoin member and any typographical errors in this post are entirely down to him - for not drinking the stuff when he was given it.

[elZorro]

Labour has brought through its top team for election year, with a reshuffle developed over the last few days.

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/politics/3...strongest-team

[iceman]

Labour has brought through its top team for election year, with a reshuffle developed over the last few days.

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/politics/3...strongest-team

Yes good to see all the new blood coming to the front bench Mallard did great in Parliament yesterday lasted into question 3 I think, before being thrown out. A great start !

[fungus pudding]

Yes good to see all the new blood coming to the front bench Mallard did great in Parliament yesterday lasted into question 3 I think, before being thrown out. A great start !

Mallard's behaviour was despicable; an absolute abuse of parliamentary privilege. To make such a claim without a shred of evidence speaks volumes about Mallard.

[Cuzzie]

Yep, the Duck got thrown out as he should of. He wont quack that crap outside of Parliament otherwise he will be pate. iceman, if you think Mallard did great in Parliament yesterday, carry on thinking that way - I like that.

[iceman]

iceman, if you think Mallard did great in Parliament yesterday, carry on thinking that way - I like that.

Tongue in cheek but happy for him to carry on like that. Collins will go home after today and have a rest and Labour will find that all this banging on about this issue has not resonated outside of Wellington ! Valuable time lost for them to talk about real stuff.

[iceman]

Gareth Kiernan now calling Labour's VSR a Very Silly Regulation. So not just Tony Alexander coming out against it !
http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/69...-has-ten-reaso

[Cuzzie]

Tongue in cheek but happy for him to carry on like that. Collins will go home after today and have a rest and Labour will find that all this banging on about this issue has not resonated outside of Wellington ! Valuable time lost for them to talk about real stuff.

Amen to that. That's the thing about Labour, they go full on attack when they sniff blood and leave the business end to the professionals. That's why Clark looked so bad in her last six years in Parliament. They just don't seem to understand that they look like Pit Bull Terriers and that turns a lot of people off. Matt's doing a fine job with Dave - not. If you want to compete against Key, get some charisma, maybe a few manners, smarten up a whole lot and then maybe, just maybe your popularity will rise. Until then it's just dirty deals with Peters and the Greens. Can you imagination Cunliffe, Peters and Norman running our country? I'd rather be belgs room mate in Asia than that.