If National wins ...

[minimoke]

We are not allowed to post tomorrow, technically.

not entirely true. We can't promote or attack a party or candidate on election day up to 7.00 pm. So if we can refrain from such activity and ensure we are not trying to influence voters then we can still discuss.

[craic]

Not a myth,I'm Afraid. As a PO I had a reporting centre in the midst of a large State Housing area. A wet evening would reduce the level of reporting right down even though it was a criminal offence. Crime also drops radically in bad weather. Offenders on that level do not support National or do not vote anyway.

Conservatives aren't looking good. National will hopefully still get in without Craig, and that would make for a more stable govt.
And don't believe that 'rainy day bad for Labour' myth. A lower voter rainy day turnout might have been true in the first part of the last century when it was too much trouble to saddle up the horse just to ride off and vote, but it applied to all parties.

[fungus pudding]

Not a myth,I'm Afraid. As a PO I had a reporting centre in the midst of a large State Housing area. A wet evening would reduce the level of reporting right down even though it was a criminal offence. Crime also drops radically in bad weather. Offenders on that level do not support National or do not vote anyway.

Sorry but that's not voting. I think you'll find research over the last 20 or so elections show little reaction to weather.

[Hoop]

Latest short term chart from I-predict (up to 9.15am today)
One thing about the validity on I-predict is you put your money where your mouth is...
My TA chart from I predict sees a support at 82c (82% chance) for National holding power after tomorrows election...There was Technical trouble earlier but last Tuesday 16th saw a TA buy signal with the 82c resistance broken...the break out rally ran out of steam mid day Wednesday 17th and we are testing the new 82c support again....
With over 80% prediction it seems the Media is making out this election to be a lot closer than perhaps it really is...Listerning and relying on the Media as being honest I would've thought I- predict would have shown these market predictions around the 60-65% level..but no..it seems odds on National will win, unless an unexpected bombshell explodes today.

From I -predict charts concerning indidivual electorates...Electorates on my watchlist are:

May Surprise

Hutt South...Labour held...Traditionally L but electorate boundaries has done Trever Mallard no favours..There's been volatile swing trading here on I predict ..down 4c to 69c 5.65% this morning!!! (69% chance L will win)

Palmeston North...Labour held...L had a scare earlier on but has broken its downtrend and rallying back quickly into the lead against N

Te Atatu ..Labour held...L is in front but not by much N is 2nd

Waimakariri ..National held (2011 Marginal seat) L is trailing but it will be close if National loses steam and breaks 82c support.


Cliff hangers

Port Hills ..L held..Ruth Dyson's seat under threat from N.....UPDATE big trading swing to N up 10% this morning to 53% chance of winning

Te Tai Tokerau* ...Mana held...Hone is sweating on this one, he is eyeball to eyeball with Labour...Too close to call. UPDATE Hone pulling ahead this morning


Goneburgers

Tamaki Makaurau...Maori Party held....Pita Sharples is gone and so has this seat...Odds on for a Labour victory here.

Te Tai Hauauru...Maori Party held....Labour has 73% chance of winning...

Christchurch Central...National held...Traditionally a strong Labour seat and there's a 73% chance L is taking it back


Seats that Matter:

Epsom...Act held..... Act has an 87% chance of winning this time...no problem here

Hamilton East and Hamilton West..These two seats used to be "the bell weather seats" If they go red Labour wins...This election prediction its all blue 89% and 92% respectively.

Ohariu..United held...United has 83% chance of winning this time ...no problems here either (up 3% this morning).

Waiariki....Maori Party held...MP has 86% of winning this time...no problems..

*Te Tai Tokerau...see above Mana's survivial in Parliament rests on this seat

[winner69]

so buying in the 60's and the 70's was pretty good ....nice

[elZorro]

Hoop, interesting analysis. You have noted some weird things going on with iPredict. I'm fairly certain that about 10 right-wing people, mostly with deep pockets and accounts that never seem to hit the $2500 limits, push the important voting around. Just so people like you can publish the results online.

I have noted elsewhere that the actual closeoff (each day for the last two weeks) is still done by Exceltium, 100% owned by Matthew Hooton. He gets to choose when it's closed off, and he has an account on iPredict. Most of the National MPs appear to be keeping their own chances looking very positive, and most Labour candidates have been slack about getting involved. So, what you are looking at, is a fabrication, not a real market, on many of the smaller options anyway.

What is perceived to be real, can often turn out to be real, after a deciding event like the election. It's all part of the National Team propaganda.

[Hoop]

Hoop, interesting analysis. You have noted some weird things going on with iPredict. I'm fairly certain that about 10 right-wing people, mostly with deep pockets and accounts that never seem to hit the $2500 limits, push the important voting around. Just so people like you can publish the results online.

I have noted elsewhere that the actual closeoff (each day for the last two weeks) is still done by Exceltium, 100% owned by Matthew Hooton. He gets to choose when it's closed off, and he has an account on iPredict. Most of the National MPs appear to be keeping their own chances looking very positive, and most Labour candidates have been slack about getting involved. So, what you are looking at, is a fabrication, not a real market, on many of the smaller options anyway.

What is perceived to be real, can often turn out to be real, after a deciding event like the election. It's all part of the National Team propaganda.

EZ..We don't have to wait long to see how accurate these media polls are and I-predict too.

If you look at I-predict there is only a handful of electorates that are tight run contests..the volatility exists in only a few electorates so I guess the games being played here can be equally blamed on all parties involved...its all human nature really...

I-predict is a market place....NZX is a market place ...game on

[elZorro]

EZ..We don't have to wait long to see how accurate these media polls are and I-predict too.

If you look at I-predict there is only a handful of electorates that are tight run contests..the volatility exists in only a few electorates so I guess the games being played here can be equally blamed on all parties involved...its all human nature really

Yeah, except National holds all of the good hands, using a stacked deck.

[BlackPeter]

Hoop, interesting analysis. You have noted some weird things going on with iPredict. I'm fairly certain that about 10 right-wing people, mostly with deep pockets and accounts that never seem to hit the $2500 limits, push the important voting around. Just so people like you can publish the results online.

I have noted elsewhere that the actual closeoff (each day for the last two weeks) is still done by Exceltium, 100% owned by Matthew Hooton. He gets to choose when it's closed off, and he has an account on iPredict. Most of the National MPs appear to be keeping their own chances looking very positive, and most Labour candidates have been slack about getting involved. So, what you are looking at, is a fabrication, not a real market, on many of the smaller options anyway.

What is perceived to be real, can often turn out to be real, after a deciding event like the election. It's all part of the National Team propaganda.

Hi EZ, if that's what you really believe, than why don't you just put your money where your mouth is instead of complaining about right wing conspiracies? Just gang up with Kim Dotcom, Nicky Hager, Belg and other rich Lefties (Leila earns much more money than she deserves, and there are others) and buy all these in your view too cheap options that Labour might win. I am sure together you can get the price up (in the spirit of a real unionist) ... and if you are right ... than you all will be richly rewarded come Sunday ...

[Hoop]

Yeah, except National holds all of the good hands, using a stacked deck.

ELZ..I hope for your sake that I-predict for a couple of Maori seats and Christchurch Central going back to Labour are true........or is it all as you say .....propaganda!!!