If National wins ...

[elZorro]

Well yes, it was a sombre mood in the local Labour HQ as the results came in. There were quite a few there though, quite a good team got together in the end. Being keen on stats, I have charted the last four elections for overall votes, and it's very interesting.

About 90% of the party votes are always split up between National, Labour, Greens and NZFirst. So only one in ten voters selects a minority party on average. If there are too many of them, as we had last night, none of them get over 5%.

I have read through all the comments briefly, and can't agree with many of them. I'm pleased most noted that David Cunliffe carried himself well in defeat. He has really matured during this campaign.

Craic, send me a PM and I'll pay out on the bet pronto, you won fair and square.

Hoop, thanks for the analysis. I'm not going to get much back from iPredict, but I'll be pushing for someone else to be closing off their reports next election. The cheeky sods got away with it this year.

As to the result, I don't think it was anything to do with policies. I say this because National is leaving very poor stats in their wake in many cases, and Labour's policies would undoubtedly have helped out most NZers. Some of you breathed a sigh of relief about a CGT not coming through. Newsflash, we'll get one sooner or later, the country will have to get in more tax revenue to keep offering services to a rising and aging population.

No, what we are seeing here is not the result of National doing such a great job of governing the country. It is more likely that the use of Crosby-Textor as campaign managers over the last ten years, has moved public perception their way, and this process is still happening. Elections are won on perception, and National is using one of the world's leading neo-liberal campaign teams to get their message out.

With an increasing mandate, and being careful to not make any noises about what they're up to next, I'm fearful of what will be around the corner for lower and middle NZ. Trickle down? I don't think so. Trickle up, more likely.

[winner69]

Well yes, it was a sombre mood in the local Labour HQ as the results came in. There were quite a few there though, quite a good team got together in the end. Being keen on stats, I have charted the last four elections for overall votes, and it's very interesting.

About 90% of the party votes are always split up between National, Labour, Greens and NZFirst. So only one in ten voters selects a minority party on average. If there are too many of them, as we had last night, none of them get over 5%.

I have read through all the comments briefly, and can't agree with many of them. I'm pleased most noted that David Cunliffe carried himself well in defeat. He has really matured during this campaign.

Craic, send me a PM and I'll pay out on the bet pronto, you won fair and square.

Hoop, thanks for the analysis. I'm not going to get much back from iPredict, but I'll be pushing for someone else to be closing off their reports next election. The cheeky sods got away with it this year.

As to the result, I don't think it was anything to do with policies. I say this because National is leaving very poor stats in their wake in many cases, and Labour's policies would undoubtedly have helped out most NZers. Some of you breathed a sigh of relief about a CGT not coming through. Newsflash, we'll get one sooner or later, the country will have to get in more tax revenue to keep offering services to a rising and aging population.

No, what we are seeing here is not the result of National doing such a great job of governing the country. It is more likely that the use of Crosby-Textor as campaign managers over the last ten years, has moved public perception their way, and this process is still happening. Elections are won on perception, and National is using one of the world's leading neo-liberal campaign teams to get their message out.

With an increasing mandate, and being careful to not make any noises about what they're up to next, I'm fearful of what will be around the corner for lower and middle NZ. Trickle down? I don't think so. Trickle up, more likely.

Very gracious of you EZ

I'm with you on this trickle up bit

The million plus who didn't vote might regret their inaction

As I said earlier John's mates in the US will be very pleased with what he has managed to achieve.

All going to plan probably

[nextbigthing]

How I see it.

1) People in the center/right don't like David Cunliffe. They view him as divisive, arrogant, slimy and incompetent. Slimy and arrogant you might get away with, but not incompetent. He needs to go for Labour to have a chance (example writing the CGT policy then not even being able to answer questions on it before the election, people don't like that).

2) Labour needs to stop pandering to every minority group they can think of. They have alienated the 'average nzer' making them feel that there's nothing in it for them voting Labour. Example, David cunliffes speech at the Labour event last night. I got the impression he was about to announce a name change of the Labour party to the pacific island party there was such a strong theme with what he was saying and the pacific drums in the background. That's fine but the majority of nzers aren't pacific islanders and feel they're not represented. That's just one example but it's this constant social engineering that just annoys people. It's great if your a minimum wage earning pacific lesbian midget vegetarian (truely no offense at all intended to anyone) but the majority of nzers aren't.

I can't find the article on stuff now but Shearer and Cosgrove have come out saying exactly this. That the bulk of the policy is OK, just Labour are just out of touch with what people actually want.

You don't have to agree with this. You may think we'll it's Labour policy to represent these people so well stick with it and stand up for ourselves. That's fine but be prepared to do it as a minority party as proven by recent results.

el Z, ignore what Shearer and Cosgrove are saying at Labours peril!

[winner69]

Nat's victory was so overwhelming that to cheer me up today and bring some sanity back into my world I had to get my Billy Bragg CDs out

[BlackPeter]

Well yes, it was a sombre mood in the local Labour HQ as the results came in. There were quite a few there though, quite a good team got together in the end. Being keen on stats, I have charted the last four elections for overall votes, and it's very interesting.

About 90% of the party votes are always split up between National, Labour, Greens and NZFirst. So only one in ten voters selects a minority party on average. If there are too many of them, as we had last night, none of them get over 5%.

I have read through all the comments briefly, and can't agree with many of them. I'm pleased most noted that David Cunliffe carried himself well in defeat. He has really matured during this campaign.

Craic, send me a PM and I'll pay out on the bet pronto, you won fair and square.

Hoop, thanks for the analysis. I'm not going to get much back from iPredict, but I'll be pushing for someone else to be closing off their reports next election. The cheeky sods got away with it this year.

As to the result, I don't think it was anything to do with policies. I say this because National is leaving very poor stats in their wake in many cases, and Labour's policies would undoubtedly have helped out most NZers. Some of you breathed a sigh of relief about a CGT not coming through. Newsflash, we'll get one sooner or later, the country will have to get in more tax revenue to keep offering services to a rising and aging population.

No, what we are seeing here is not the result of National doing such a great job of governing the country. It is more likely that the use of Crosby-Textor as campaign managers over the last ten years, has moved public perception their way, and this process is still happening. Elections are won on perception, and National is using one of the world's leading neo-liberal campaign teams to get their message out.

With an increasing mandate, and being careful to not make any noises about what they're up to next, I'm fearful of what will be around the corner for lower and middle NZ. Trickle down? I don't think so. Trickle up, more likely.

Hi EZ,

Actually - I would love for New Zealand to have a credible alternative on the centre left side of the spectrum. However, if I read your comments, David Cunliffe's tirades, Leila's excuses and the weak analysis from the Green co-leaders, than I get the impression the Left thinks it is just the NZ voter who erred. Sounds like the Left thinks the NZ public must be stupid (or mediocre, or kidded by some PR company) that they choose not to follow your hard left teachings.

Is this really the way you think? Is the Left always right (excuse the pun) and everybody else stupid?

Look - it is not the job of the NZ public to do your (or Labours, or the Greens) bidding. It is the job of political parties to represent the public in parliament. If Labour and Green don't want to represent the majority of the NZ Public, than this is o.k. Just stay in opposition and somebody else will run the government. Just stop to blame others for your failure. However if you get at some stage bored from blaming everybody else for not getting elected, than maybe - just maybe you should look at yourself.

As NBT already mentioned - Shearer seems to be one of the people who understood that Labour can't win while excluding the centre. Good man, this Shearer. Just remind me, why Labour gave him the sack. Ah yes, I think he got only 35% in the polls and Cunliffe was a much better backstabber and really keen to exercise his powers (sounds like, he hasn't changed) ....

[nextbigthing]

Cunliffe not resigning confirms one thing. He wants to be leader to satisfy his ego.
Interestingly Shearer 35% Greens 10% Winnie 10% hey presto. What could have been.

[elZorro]

Hi EZ,

Actually - I would love for New Zealand to have a credible alternative on the centre left side of the spectrum. However, if I read your comments, David Cunliffe's tirades, Leila's excuses and the weak analysis from the Green co-leaders, than I get the impression the Left thinks it is just the NZ voter who erred. Sounds like the Left thinks the NZ public must be stupid (or mediocre, or kidded by some PR company) that they choose not to follow your hard left teachings.

Is this really the way you think? Is the Left always right (excuse the pun) and everybody else stupid?

Look - it is not the job of the NZ public to do your (or Labours, or the Greens) bidding. It is the job of political parties to represent the public in parliament. If Labour and Green don't want to represent the majority of the NZ Public, than this is o.k. Just stay in opposition and somebody else will run the government. Just stop to blame others for your failure. However if you get at some stage bored from blaming everybody else for not getting elected, than maybe - just maybe you should look at yourself.

As NBT already mentioned - Shearer seems to be one of the people who understood that Labour can't win while excluding the centre. Good man, this Shearer. Just remind me, why Labour gave him the sack. Ah yes, I think he got only 35% in the polls and Cunliffe was a much better backstabber and really keen to exercise his powers (sounds like, he hasn't changed) ....

Sorry BP, I can't leave this without a reply. You obviously haven't looked at Labour policies, they are not hard left at all. David Shearer didn't warm up to the cameras enough, he would have been mincemeat in the final debates with John Key. Nicky Hager's book put a serious dent in public perception of National by the public, but as we saw, only for a couple of weeks. Astoundingly, the Crosby-Textor instructions for John Key and others, worked. The public moved on - believed John Key - even though he was severely shaken at first. When he came out in front of the cameras the day after the book release, that was not the look of an innocent person. He must have known all about what was going on, it was written on his face.

But Crosby-Textor and others would have reminded him, that just like it took years to poison the perception of NZers towards Labour and the Greens using right-wing bloggers and Mr Nice Guy tactics, it would also take years to change them back towards Labour, so he just had to bluff his way through.

That's something that David Cunliffe can't say, but I'll say it. If the NZ public and the press are collectively too facile to look behind propaganda to find the real story, then the best political strategists will win elections every time. No matter how dubious their message is. How Labour is going to get the cash together to pay for better strategists, better campaign ads, should consume a lot of their thinking for the next three years. They already have better policies, and a more real team. One that looks like NZ.

[Harvey Specter]

Sorry BP, I can't leave this without a reply. You obviously haven't looked at Labour policies, they are not hard left at all.

Free healthcare to over 65's (one of the richest demographics) and effectively renationalising the generation market aren't hard left? The only reason you dont think so is because Key has gone beyond the centre into lefts territory by maintaining Labours WFF and extending free healthcare to under 13'.

[minimoke]

Free healthcare to over 65's (one of the richest demographics) and effectively renationalising the generation market aren't hard left? The only reason you dont think so is because Key has gone beyond the centre into lefts territory by maintaining Labours WFF and extending free healthcare to under 13'.

Exactly. National are just as far left as Labour so its not an issue of left right politics. Its simply down to NZ not liking the Labour brand. Saturdays nights speech by Cunliffe when he gave a big tick to the Pacific Islanders summed up up really - he is so out of touch that he thinks Labour can win with the PI vote. Wrong. Labour needs to bring all New Zealanders along for the ride.

[winner69]

Labour leadership battle

This could it make it interesting

National leader John Key said today he didn't expect the special vote count to change National's 61-seat result. But he predicted the official result may see may take one seat taken off Labour and handed to the Greens.

That would see Labour's Andrew Little out and the Green's Steffan Browning coming back in.


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11328942