If National wins ...

[fungus pudding]

The human brain is a complex organ with the wonderful power of enabling man to find reasons for continuing to believe whatever it is that he wants to believe.”
― Voltaire

Who on earth would want to believe that?

[craic]

Who on earth would want to believe that?

The bottle says "Wild Turkey Bourbon" but I'm not too sure of the mixture - it was months ago but confusing the human brain with MIND is a crime. I cannot allow the idea that Brain is is our ultimate reasoning power. Mind is universal and open to all who who would have the courage to use it - brain is just a switchboard. Brain is this laptop that I am using - Mind is google and other similar systems. It is the universally available body of knowledge and information that is available to everyone who chooses to learn how to use it.

[westerly]

Yes, they do. Note they have been saying the same thing in several different ways, for the last few weeks, and they'll keep doing it, until everyone is brainwashed. This method has always worked before. By 2017 we'll all have forgotten what a budget surplus looks like. It never existed, it was never promised.

National is a conservative party ,basically a do nothing when in power party unless it will assist it's core group of supporters, business and farming interests.
At present, a majority outside of those core areas of support are doing OK. And on the back of John's popularity and a Press happy to help they have been comfortably returned at election time.
But
Housing is becoming an area of concern as people start to realize their children and grandchildren have little hope of ever owning a house, jobs are starting to become more and more technical and not everybody is suited to computer programming. Govt. services are being reduced as the drive to cut expenditure continues. Low interest rates penalize savers, reward borrowers, while the thought of any major downturn in house prices must give Bill English nightmares.The downturn in dairy prices must cause highly indebted farmers sleepless nights. Nick Smith and several other National mps are looking past their use by date.
Labour probably do not need to do much at present , if they can formulate policy nearer to their core values , eliminate the more contentious items, and present a more unified party National may be history at the next election

westerly

[elZorro]

National is a conservative party ,basically a do nothing when in power party unless it will assist it's core group of supporters, business and farming interests.
At present, a majority outside of those core areas of support are doing OK. And on the back of John's popularity and a Press happy to help they have been comfortably returned at election time.
But
Housing is becoming an area of concern as people start to realize their children and grandchildren have little hope of ever owning a house, jobs are starting to become more and more technical and not everybody is suited to computer programming. Govt. services are being reduced as the drive to cut expenditure continues. Low interest rates penalize savers, reward borrowers, while the thought of any major downturn in house prices must give Bill English nightmares.The downturn in dairy prices must cause highly indebted farmers sleepless nights. Nick Smith and several other National mps are looking past their use by date.
Labour probably do not need to do much at present , if they can formulate policy nearer to their core values , eliminate the more contentious items, and present a more unified party National may be history at the next election

westerly

That's a good synopsis, although I'm not sure the majority are doing OK, they might be in a holding pattern. I have no doubt that Labour are becoming more unified and focussed. They're holding regional planning meetings around the country, putting a lot of resources into it. Maybe they'll still put a CGT on the backburner, never mind, it'll keep.

Now I need to remind Fungus Pudding of what I said before the election. See post..
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...l=1#post502113

FP probably voted ACT, but the effect was the same as voting National. He helped bump up house prices in Auckland. Yet he always says the govt should stay out of the housing market, out of most things. Does that make him a hypocrite?

[iceman]

That I totally agree with. I have a daughter at Uni at the moment and I think we have some serious issues with our University education in NZ.
It needs a serious rethink if we want to be World class and just making it easier with interest free student loans or lowering standards (some based on race) are not solutions that will get us anywhere as a country. Making it too easy is setting our young people up for failures when they get to the real World

Student loan issues are multi faceted. The cause is the growing cost of tertiary education which prevents some socio economic groups from even considering attending & that needs addressing. We have gone along way down the path of a flawed American model. A lot of work that was previously available to union students are now taken by foreign labour, so it doesn't help students trying to pay for their education & then there is the interest free issue which devoids responsibility. A low interest rate say at least the official cash rate probably makes sense or perhaps the rate of a 1 year fixed mortgage.

[winner69]

A consistent narrative and perception go hand in hand.

For seven years Bill has said here will be a government surplus. Never achieved but always close or next year. That's the consistent narrative - perception is that government doing a pretty good job in balancing books.

You never hear much from Bill about the rising government debt, now over $60 billion and up from $30 billion when he took over. Treasury still planning to borrow in 2019. No narrative here so perception is probably that increasing levels of government debt is not a problem.

EZ - if they want to get anywhere Labour need to undermine this consistent narrative. More than the spasmodic bleating about broken promises and all that but a real consistent 'narrative' of their own that not only undermines Bill's one but also is an alternative way forward (even if it says deficits are good if the spend s owing to make NZ a better pace). State the narrative, keep hammering on about it and the punters perceptions might just change.

Maybe there isn't that alternative narrative, if not Labour are gone for good.

from a while ago. Maybe perception is brainwashing

But Bill doing a great job with that surplus

[craic]

My three offspring seem to be different. The eldest bypassed Uni altogether and and set up a business, now worth millions. The second left from the fourth form and got an apprenticeship which he completed before going overseas into the financial markets, computers and the rest and eventually, a degree and a top job - Goldman Sachs paid him back all his fees after he graduated and the youngest got his degree in Auckland while he worked. nothing like effective parental guidance for overcoming the vagries of the state.

[iceman]

That´s great craig. Of course some do well and I am saitisfied with my own daughter´s progress. My comments are about general standards and goals which I believe are ridiculously low, from what I have seen and heard in the last 2 years.

My three offspring seem to be different. The eldest bypassed Uni altogether and and set up a business, now worth millions. The second left from the fourth form and got an apprenticeship which he completed before going overseas into the financial markets, computers and the rest and eventually, a degree and a top job - Goldman Sachs paid him back all his fees after he graduated and the youngest got his degree in Auckland while he worked. nothing like effective parental guidance for overcoming the vagries of the state.

[craic]

Sorry Iceman, that Wild Turkey affects my comprehension and I probably didn't read your post properly. But Ithink the problem is widespread and fundamental. I have always been struck by the lack of basic education here. I have no educational qualifications but a fairly good education by Christian Brothers and the like but here I found Primary teachers who could not spell or do simple mathematics and this left me quite confused for a year or two. Before computers, I had a very large and varied collection of books taking up one wall of our living area and my kids were taken weekly to the library. I rarely saw books in homes of friends. My grandson who has qualified to enter St Pauls Collge in London next year has to go along every saturday morning to learn Latin to be up with other entrants. Learning Latin here would be akin to heresy.

[elZorro]

Posted by W69:

A consistent narrative and perception go hand in hand.

For seven years Bill has said here will be a government surplus. Never achieved but always close or next year. That's the consistent narrative - perception is that government doing a pretty good job in balancing books.

You never hear much from Bill about the rising government debt, now over $60 billion and up from $30 billion when he took over. Treasury still planning to borrow in 2019. No narrative here so perception is probably that increasing levels of government debt is not a problem.

EZ - if they want to get anywhere Labour need to undermine this consistent narrative. More than the spasmodic bleating about broken promises and all that but a real consistent 'narrative' of their own that not only undermines Bill's one but also is an alternative way forward (even if it says deficits are good if the spend is going to make NZ a better place). State the narrative, keep hammering on about it and the punters perceptions might just change.

Maybe there isn't that alternative narrative, if not Labour are gone for good.

There's quite a bit of truth in that, I think the Greens always offer a sensible alternative when they criticise National. Perhaps Labour are looking for the narrative for this non-event budget surplus, but I think that if R&D tax credits had been left in place in 2009, if the KiwiBuild project had started, if SMEs had been supported instead of big business, if the tax breaks to the wealthiest hadn't occurred, we would have a budget surplus again by now, it would have been there with the higher dairy payout last year. We'd have more employed, we'd be on our way to exporting nirvana with more niche manufactured products. Would we have needed a GST increase? I'd certainly prefer a CGT over that.

Audrey Young has an article on Grant Robertson, not altogether flattering. But I think the very last sentence is the narrative Labour needs, and it's accurate.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/ne...day+4+May+2015

(Grant Robertson said) National's failure in meeting the (budget surplus) target, more broadly reflected a failure to grow and diversify the economy.