If National wins ...

[winner69]

EZ, Bill will be saved by reporting a surplus.

[elZorro]

EZ, Bill will be saved by reporting a surplus.

Yes, W69, that would be a really amazing trick for the govt to pull off, it would involve mass sackings of state employees, I can't see any other way they could do it. Had a brief look at the Waikato Times this morning, and was smacked in the head by this article from reporter Gerald Piddock, who is writing well, from farmer perspectives. Not good news for Bill, John, or any of us out here.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...ake-five-years

[winner69]

Yes, W69, that would be a really amazing trick for the govt to pull off, it would involve mass sackings of state employees, I can't see any other way they could do it. Had a brief look at the Waikato Times this morning, and was smacked in the head by this article by Gerald Piddock, who is writing increasingly useful articles. Not good news for Bill, John, or any of us out here.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...ake-five-years

Good article EZ

I always hear that farmers are resilient and manage the us and downs of the cyclic nature of it.

But then I wonder why such a problem now for dairy farmers when milk prices are not that much below the long term average. One of the perils of the recent past being seen as he norm. But debt problems maybe are only a problem for 'newish' farmers and sharemilkers who have bought farms/stock at over inflated prices doing their sums on a farm gate price of $7 plus.

[elZorro]

Good article EZ

I always hear that farmers are resilient and manage the us and downs of the cyclic nature of it.

But then I wonder why such a problem now for dairy farmers when milk prices are not that much below the long term average. One of the perils of the recent past being seen as he norm. But debt problems maybe are only a problem for 'newish' farmers and sharemilkers who have bought farms/stock at over inflated prices doing their sums on a farm gate price of $7 plus.

Fair points W69, farmers are networking better than ever, and they are seeking out some good deals. By and large, suppliers are heeding the call. I don't know the farm land price scene very well, but from an outside observation standpoint it seems that there are always cycles, and those exiting farming for good, will try and time into one of the peaks. After that, the landowners left behind have a choice every time a new farm comes up for sale in poorer return circumstances. Do they let it go for a song, or do they keep the price 'up there'? Most of their own loans and securities are based on farm valuations, so unless there is a wholesale exit, the smaller farms that come up can be amalgamated into one of the neighbours' properties using a new bank loan, and everyone can relax for a while.

That doesn't change the situation for this dairying season: many farm and herd owners will be facing a negative income from their substantial assets base. Like any business, they'll lodge a tax loss and carry it forward, Bill won't be getting any provisional taxes from them. But all of the farm suppliers and provincial retailers won't be making much profit either, so they'll stop paying prov tax, and that'll be more noticeable.

The Reserve Bank drops the OCR, banks offering under 5% interest for 2 years, even in the face of rampant inflation in Auckland house prices? Why? Because the low dairy payout is a slow moving train wreck.


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...y+20+June+2015

[winner69]

EZ, chicane after 30 odd years at the Southland Times been made redundant. No more local cartoons for southlanders any more

Media restricting real free speech eh

[Daytr]

Its because input costs have gone up dramatically with intensification & many have also converted dairy on marginal land that only works if getting high prices. so the exposure to the slump in prices is a lot wider & bigger than ever before. With new farmers the land values have also soared so more debt is required.

Good article EZ

I always hear that farmers are resilient and manage the us and downs of the cyclic nature of it.

But then I wonder why such a problem now for dairy farmers when milk prices are not that much below the long term average. One of the perils of the recent past being seen as he norm. But debt problems maybe are only a problem for 'newish' farmers and sharemilkers who have bought farms/stock at over inflated prices doing their sums on a farm gate price of $7 plus.

[elZorro]

Its because input costs have gone up dramatically with intensification & many have also converted dairy on marginal land that only works if getting high prices. so the exposure to the slump in prices is a lot wider & bigger than ever before. With new farmers the land values have also soared so more debt is required.

Yes, I agree with your comments Daytr. It won't be pleasant running a dairy-linked business in the regions for the next year or two. On the bright side, maybe it will help with voter sentiment towards NZFirst and Labour, come 2017.

[Daytr]

Yep EZ after NZFs success in Northland if I was the I'd make sure they put a strong candidate in every seat.

[elZorro]

Yep EZ after NZFs success in Northland if I was the I'd make sure they put a strong candidate in every seat.

But they need to get the good applications in first, and that's sometimes the hard part, it's not a highly paid job for the hours, even if you get in after being selected, and the campaign itself is unpaid. They have to be very politically committed.

The Commissioner for the Environment is not happy with Landcorp.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/landcor...y+22+June+2015

NZ Govt about to trade in its limousines (three years is up), and since they spend an average of $28,000 on each vehicle for the rest of the public service, and the govt hasn't been living within its income for seven years, they should limit the cost to no more than say $50,000 a vehicle, and even then it should be a hydrid. We probably can't afford European styling then, can we?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...ury-limo-fleet

[winner69]

Yes, I agree with your comments Daytr. It won't be pleasant running a dairy-linked business in the regions for the next year or two. On the bright side, maybe it will help with voter sentiment towards NZFirst and Labour, come 2017.

I wouldn't be surprised to see all these GDP numbers and things all 'revised' upwards sometime in the future.

The cynic in me says Wheeler and Government engineering a 'bail out' for Fonterra and keeping their mates with interests in the Auckland property market sweet.