If National wins ...

[elZorro]

Hi EZ, don't despair ... I remember Labour complaining for many years about the high NZ dollar. Now - looks like we cracked this problem - a huge boost for our export industry. Looking forward to profitable times ...

Yes - dairy is an unfortunate exception, and hey - this just happens if you give a lazy coop quasi monopoly status. A bunch of greedy self serving managers enjoyed splashing other people's money away with questionable ventures overseas (remember the Chinese melamine crisis) and without sufficient focus on internal quality control (remember also the 2013 botulism scandal).

What they should have done is diversifying their production from boring staples everybody can produce to value added specialities ... and obviously care more about quality than about rising the top managers salaries.

Just remind me - wasn't Fonterra formed under Labours watch? So - if we follow for a moment your logic that the government is responsible for everything - why is it more National's than Labour's fault that this industry is in a crisis?

Fonterra was formed in 2001, but it's a joint co-operative for farmers, so it didn't need much government direction. I'm not sure in which post I ever said that Fonterra is doing a bad job of anything, technically. Rod Oram isn't too sure about their policies for growth and profits, but I know their plants are technically leading edge, and they have very good engineers and highly trained operators.

National's fault, which many commentators are also picking up on, is that they thought dairying would be the backbone of NZ, no problem. It's now going to be a big problem for the economy. Some of our dairy farms will need to downsize herds, maybe convert to sheep/beef or cropping. Too many new plants are being started up overseas, big milking plants with up to 100,000 cows. Using our gear, our technology, but cheap labour. We are not going to see high milkfat prices here again, not unless the market is a lot bigger than it is at the moment.

Our R&D efforts in other areas have been idling since National came to power, we don't have many new exports, that's a fault of government direction being lacking. Yes, we've now achieved a low exchange rate, but it'll make our imports more expensive, it's always a two-edged sword. The low exchange rate says that overseas investors see our prospects being worse than they were, not better.

[BlackPeter]

[QUOTE=westerly;581885]

Cute, westerley. So you are saying that only an at least second generation NZ socialist knows what racism and xenophobia is? How dare a recent import from the British islands teach old hands like you - outrageous, isn't it? Always good to learn from an expert like you ... and I understand now why Mr Twyford is so good in exercising these skills ... [/QUOTE

No one would describe me as cute BP However you do seem to have a unique way of interpreting other peoples posts.

westerly

Westerly, I wouldn't dare to describe you in a public forum ... I was only referring to your post

[Jantar]

...... We are not going to see high milkfat prices here again, not unless the market is a lot bigger than it is at the moment.
......

I recall seeing that same comment about sheepmeat prices some 20 years ago, and that prompted many farmers to convert to Dairy. However store lambs are now fetching around $80 each, and that is very profitable.

[BlackPeter]

Our R&D efforts in other areas have been idling since National came to power, we don't have many new exports, that's a fault of government direction being lacking. Yes, we've now achieved a low exchange rate, but it'll make our imports more expensive, it's always a two-edged sword. The low exchange rate says that overseas investors see our prospects being worse than they were, not better.

They just can't win, can they? I remember the Lefties on this thread whining for years about the government being responsible for the high exchange rate - and now it is lower, it is all bad ...

And looking at your other claim re having no new exports - is this really true? Lets start with agriculture: Wine industry is thriving, red meats are going well, pip fruit are doing very well, thank you. Kiwifruit are doing well and I hear wool and lambs are up as well. And even the dairy industry is not all bleak .... sure, farmers are hurting (and I never heard you before showing them your sympathy) but the industry itself? Sure - Fonterra - boring coop and near monopoly are not doing well - but SML might be in for a surprise ...

Other industries ... tourism is doing quite well and poised to rise next season - recently been in Queenstown? Just look at THL and AIR - do they look like curling up their nails anytime soon?

Now lets look into the technical industries: FPH had an outstanding handful of years and no end of the growth cycle visible; SKL and MVN are as I think quite well positioned and the lower dollar can only help; Lots of successful startups over the last 7 years or so. Just some from memory: XRO, OHE, WYN, GTK, ERD. Sure - not all of them make money - yet (as startups do), but thanks to the lower dollar the future for them looks certainly brighter. I am sure that if & when Labour gets at any stage back into power you will be the first to claim their success as Labour's.

EZ, you would make a marvelous Cassandra ... and I can't imagine you are feeling good about this constant whining yourself. Look - this is not what a good opposition is about. Wouldn't it be amazing if you folks could start to add some value instead of just trying to make everybody (including yourself) feeling miserable?

----
And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother's eye, but considerest not the beam that is in thine own eye? (Matthew 7:3)

[elZorro]

They just can't win, can they? I remember the Lefties on this thread whining for years about the government being responsible for the high exchange rate - and now it is lower, it is all bad ...

And looking at your other claim re having no new exports - is this really true? Lets start with agriculture: Wine industry is thriving, red meats are going well, pip fruit are doing very well, thank you. Kiwifruit are doing well and I hear wool and lambs are up as well. And even the dairy industry is not all bleak .... sure, farmers are hurting (and I never heard you before showing them your sympathy) but the industry itself? Sure - Fonterra - boring coop and near monopoly are not doing well - but SML might be in for a surprise ...

Other industries ... tourism is doing quite well and poised to rise next season - recently been in Queenstown? Just look at THL and AIR - do they look like curling up their nails anytime soon?

Now lets look into the technical industries: FPH had an outstanding handful of years and no end of the growth cycle visible; SKL and MVN are as I think quite well positioned and the lower dollar can only help; Lots of successful startups over the last 7 years or so. Just some from memory: XRO, OHE, WYN, GTK, ERD. Sure - not all of them make money - yet (as startups do), but thanks to the lower dollar the future for them looks certainly brighter. I am sure that if & when Labour gets at any stage back into power you will be the first to claim their success as Labour's.

EZ, you would make a marvelous Cassandra ... and I can't imagine you are feeling good about this constant whining yourself. Look - this is not what a good opposition is about. Wouldn't it be amazing if you folks could start to add some value instead of just trying to make everybody (including yourself) feeling miserable?

BP, this article is mostly apprehensive about the economy. I'm mindful that the govt tax take has dipped heavily under National's terms, has crept back to be slightly above what Labour achieved in 2008 (just after the high dairy payout year), but has not yet allowed a budget surplus for the National govt. Despite all the number shuffling, selling of assets, sinking lids, etc. Therefore, it looks to me like we have been watching the economy downsize in relative terms. We have a higher population, but we are starting to see the stresses of finding gainful employment for all who want to work.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opin...y+20+July+2015

if all of those sectors you mention are going gangbusters, shouldn't there have been a fairly massive company tax income for the National govt? And will all of these sectors make up for the negative income overall, for the regionally huge dairy sector?

[BlackPeter]

BP, this article is mostly apprehensive about the economy. I'm mindful that the govt tax take has dipped heavily under National's terms, has crept back to be slightly above what Labour achieved in 2008 (just after the high dairy payout year), but has not yet allowed a budget surplus for the National govt. Despite all the number shuffling, selling of assets, sinking lids, etc. Therefore, it looks to me like we have been watching the economy downsize in relative terms. We have a higher population, but we are starting to see the stresses of finding gainful employment for all who want to work.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opin...y+20+July+2015

EZ, quite funny - the article you linked to is actually quite balanced and in parts even quite upbeat about the economic situation. I guess this happens if you only read the first screen and not the whole article

Here are some snippets I found in your article:

In recent days we have started to see analysts prepare for this earnings season.
Already a few analysts have upgraded profit forecasts for some companies with global earnings.
For instance, Macquarie have reduced their New Zealand dollar forecasts in the short and medium term to a level of US60c and this will flow through to their forecasts for earnings and valuations. But there is more to come.

As an extreme example in May Diligent provided sales guidance of $98 million US dollars for the 2015 calendar year.
Analysts conduct all their analysis in US dollars for Diligent. The consensus range among five analysts is US$92m-US$100m.
In June that equated to a range of $119-$136mn using a variety of broker assumptions around exchange rates.
Today using US66c the average forecast would be $137m (with a spread of $131m-$142m).
Changes to actual valuations of Diligent will vary significantly according to the exchange rates analysts use in their models.
Most will develop a US dollar valuation and convert that valuation at the spot foreign exchange rate. At the time of writing no one has published a report with new valuations for Diligent but it seems likely that New Zealand dollar valuations and target prices will rise by between 5 per cent-15 per cent.

The same is so for NZ exporters. Although dairy is attracting the headlines some exporters are seeing better global pricing.
Companies like Scales, with significant exposure to apples, could potentially report a better outlook, and tech and healthcare companies exporting to the US should see a material improvement in the outlook for sales.

All gloom and doom? I don't think so ... unless you are wearing your left-wing blinkers ....

[craic]

BP, this article is mostly apprehensive about the economy. I'm mindful that the govt tax take has dipped heavily under National's terms, has crept back to be slightly above what Labour achieved in 2008 (just after the high dairy payout year), but has not yet allowed a budget surplus for the National govt. Despite all the number shuffling, selling of assets, sinking lids, etc. Therefore, it looks to me like we have been watching the economy downsize in relative terms. We have a higher population, but we are starting to see the stresses of finding gainful employment for all who want to work.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opin...y+20+July+2015

if all of those sectors you mention are going gangbusters, shouldn't there have been a fairly massive company tax income for the National govt? And will all of these sectors make up for the negative income overall, for the regionally huge dairy sector?

You have been pushing this wheel barrow with the squeaky wheel for and if oil doesn't fix it then a new barrow is in order. Read HB Today on the bottom of the Herald site and you will find out that the pip fruit industry here is roaring with highest export prices while fruit is being wasted by being left on trees because of the dire shortage of pickers. Sooner or later, those who are most resistant to work, in Auckland or other centres will need to be re-directed by a cut in the benefits, to areas like this where the shortage is so great that even imported temporary labour can't fill the gap. South of Hastings good houses for under $200,000. Beneficiaries with children could afford a house, enjoy good schools, and have work for at least part of the year and possibly learn to cook because of the fewer number of fast food outlets in Southern Hawkes Bay. And there is cell phone coverage I'm told, not that I use one myself. But the sad part is that there are several months of this year, twelve months of next year, andeight or nine months of the next year before your dream of a labour heaven can even begin.

[BlackPeter]

if all of those sectors you mention are going gangbusters, shouldn't there have been a fairly massive company tax income for the National govt? And will all of these sectors make up for the negative income overall, for the regionally huge dairy sector?

Hi EZ, I think you just gave us a fine example to demonstrate the difference between left wing and centre / right thinking.

You are complaining about an in your view insufficient tax take (which, even if your claim would be true, would only point to past economic performance). Clear demonstration that left politics is trying to assess the economy by looking into the rear mirror.

I was talking about the amazing opportunities which lie ahead for our economy.

Spot the difference?

I personally prefer a government looking ahead rather than whinging about the past ... but hey - "de gustibus non est disputandum"

[iceman]

You have been pushing this wheel barrow with the squeaky wheel for and if oil doesn't fix it then a new barrow is in order. Read HB Today on the bottom of the Herald site and you will find out that the pip fruit industry here is roaring with highest export prices while fruit is being wasted by being left on trees because of the dire shortage of pickers. Sooner or later, those who are most resistant to work, in Auckland or other centres will need to be re-directed by a cut in the benefits, to areas like this where the shortage is so great that even imported temporary labour can't fill the gap. South of Hastings good houses for under $200,000. Beneficiaries with children could afford a house, enjoy good schools, and have work for at least part of the year and possibly learn to cook because of the fewer number of fast food outlets in Southern Hawkes Bay. And there is cell phone coverage I'm told, not that I use one myself. But the sad part is that there are several months of this year, twelve months of next year, andeight or nine months of the next year before your dream of a labour heaven can even begin.

Craic don't know if you read Duncan Garner's piece on the Stuff website yesterday. He actually spent a week in the regions, well south of the Bombay Hills and discovered a different NZ. Including a poultry farm in Foxton that had NO takers when they advertised jobs paying $30 per hour. I would have expected some of EZ's hard done by unemployed to apply.

[Sgt Pepper]

Craic don't know if you read Duncan Garner's piece on the Stuff website yesterday. He actually spent a week in the regions, well south of the Bombay Hills and discovered a different NZ. Including a poultry farm in Foxton that had NO takers when they advertised jobs paying . I would have expected some of EZ's hard done by unemployed to apply.

Iceman

regarding poultry farm jobs paying $30.00 per hour. Are you sure???. Based on a working year at 2086hours that's $62 400 per annum. I checked other Poultry farm jobs advertised and the pay rates were $16.00 per hour. I will check with someone who works at the hospital I work at. Her family have a large poultry business.