Using TA to time entries and exits

[Baa_Baa]

What happens now with these head and shoulder patterns

Does the price now fall to hands/wrist levels?

Refer post #116 for the probability stats; also @Hoops good work.

[winner69]

Refer post #116 for the probability stats; also @Hoops good work.

So that table in post #116 suggests little chance of the share price going sub 200?

[Xerof]

What happens now with these head and shoulder patterns

Does the price now fall to hands/wrist levels?

W69, there is no definitive new event expected after a H&S triggers, and meets it's 'measured' target, which in my mind it has done, by coming to within a cats whisker of my 2.15 target on Friday. Friday close was again just awful BTW

The only thing to be noted about a perfectly formed H&S completion, is that it signifies a major trend change. AIR has clearly broken it's long uptrend, and as such should now be treated as being in a downtrend, until further notice.

Just have to watch for signs of support, which could come Monday, next week, next month or next century

I am watching for an entry point, as I like the Company, but am VERY patient

If you want another example of a H&S, PEB completed an INVERSE one a short while ago, confirming completion of it's downtrend. Since then, it has simply marked time, as nothing inspirational either way has been seen.

[Hoop]

So that table in post #116 suggests little chance of the share price going sub 200?

Xerof...quote...".. AIR has clearly broken it's long uptrend, and as such should now be treated as being in a downtrend, until further notice.
Just have to watch for signs of support, which could come Monday, next week, next month or next century.."

How lucky do you feel?
Nearly a flip of a coin odds it will not break $2.00 ...that's if you are lucky and beat the odds

Neckline break (closing prices) = $2.73...only a month ago!!

Decline (%)............................ Bull Market... Bear Market
5 (breakeven)..>$2.59..................4%.............. 1%
10 ..................$2.45................ 15%.............. 5%
15 ..................$2.32.................35% .............17%
20 ..................$2.18................ 54% ............33%
25 ..................$2.04.................68% .............49%
30...................$1.91.................78% .............63%
35 ..................$1.77.................86% ............ 71%
50 ..................$1.36................ 97% ............ 93%
75 ..................$0.68.............. 100% ........... 100%
Over 75..........<$0.68...............100% ........... 100%

EDIT: currently at 209.5c down 8.5c -3.9%

[heisenberg]

What sort of drop in share price do you all tend to use as a stop loss sell point? 10% drop? 15%?

[Beagle]

Long term support at $1.90 isn't there Hoop ?

As mentioned on the AIR thread the company has bought back its own shares before when below NTA, (projected at 30 June 2016 to be $2.05 - per 4traders)

What I am suggesting is there could be a fair bit of money behind that long term support line over the medium term and any temporary drop below that might represent a real opportunity for the brave.

Price is starting to look silly when compared with QAN who are earning at the same rate and consensus price target $4.49. Agreed technical's look absolutely shocking...everyone is wondering where's the bottom so I guess the purpose of this post is to probe that question.

[stoploss]

What sort of drop in share price do you all tend to use as a stop loss sell point? 10% drop? 15%?

I find 10 % in NZ far too small - as with the lack of liquidity in a lot of stocks you get taken out of the game too easily .

[Hoop]

Long term support at $1.90 isn't there Hoop ?

As mentioned on the AIR thread the company has bought back its own shares before when below NTA, (projected at 30 June 2016 to be $2.05 - per 4traders)

What I am suggesting is there could be a fair bit of money behind that long term support line over the medium term and any temporary drop below that might represent a real opportunity for the brave.

Price is starting to look silly when compared with QAN who are earning at the same rate and consensus price target $4.49. Agreed technicals look absolutely shocking...everyone is wondering where's the bottom so I guess the purpose of this post is to probe that question.

Hi Roger
Over the many years of share investing I've learn't (burn't) not to think of any major market correction as silly..Often Mr Market has a good reason..and the media (e.g broker reports) are lagging indicators which often publishes the news too late...When using TA, I don't factor in broker reports.

Why??....My old FBU posted chart..notice the brokers overestimated prices on the way down and underestimates the prices on the way up...this is one of many examples..
Therefore..knowing this above example does happen often..one should not use recent past experience bias and totally dismiss the possibility that Forbar's Air price could be too low..the lag example could mean the Forbars price is too high.
There has been research done about this kind of thing about perception bias and valuations..Winner69 and I mentioned it a few year back but I can't recall where abouts on the forum

....Winner we wont dwell on Macquaries 5.94 price will we

I've got AIR back on the watchlist...that's all...

Yes support for AIR at ~$1.90 and also at ~$1.80..

When the market experiences a sudden major correction there is a vibration event (series of overcorrecting events) Market physics stuff...this is the situation when investor (animal survival instinct) behaviour should be tested with behavioural indicators such as the Fibonacci Retractment which has seen 38.2% ($2.34) a goneburger and the next psychological point is 61.8% at around $1.80..(50% is not a Fibonacci ratio)....

...but as Xerof says..AIR could create a support anywhere with any time frame...some people (if enough of them and / or big enough to make a difference) can suddenly buy in and trigger buy signals , TA can only "best guess" where not when...There are psychological $2.05 and $2.00 points to consider as well...

[Beagle]

Thanks Hoop, I appreciate your thoughts. It's also good to be holding several stocks which are a great example of TA in terms of letting your profits run including SCL, CVT and SUM and I was pleased to follow KW's advice and your superb TA skills and get out when NZR broke down through its 100 day MA at $3.60. A long as I have more winners than losers I can live to battle another day, by the way have you got a spare airsick bag I could use, mine is full

[Hoop]

Using the hourly chart ..AIR fired off short term buy signals for the first time in ages yesterday afternoon..$2.06 was the start of it...
Up to 2.14 early today and since hesitated at the short term resistance conjunction (2.15/2.16 from the splat cat bounce and the EMA 50 (period)..

EDIT: We have seen many people buying into this downtrend trying to catch the falling dagger..up to yesterday afternoon there where no buy signals at all during this falling event...Playing around with short term indicators are risky gadgets for the longer term investor...
However if one is compelled by greed and must buy in, technically speaking yesterday and today AIR is showing it's "best" form since the start of the fall..still a very risky play for the inexperienced

Disc: have no Air shares