Using TA to time entries and exits

[Beagle]

Need to keep reminding myself

Yes a timely reminder, thanks. She is a wise one well beyond her years. Gone but definitly not forgotten.

An update....AIR's share price is behaving nicely and exactly as predicted (so far)...Back in August 2016 I had taken a view that AIR's shareprice (unadjusted) has topped out and most common topped out behavioural pattern is a H&R pattern so with a better than a 50% - 50% chance of a H&S pattern forming an chartistist can begin operating an odds on investment play by buying AIR (less risky when the $1.80 support [the neck] is confirmed)..The idea is to keep to the investment plan until AIR's behavioural habits change course away from its predicted course (red dotted line).. until then AIR continues to be an accumulation/hold..Note however that AIR is now halfway up the imaginary right hand shoulder of the on going formation of a possible Head and Shoulder pattern so assuming the more common symmetrical version of the H&R pattern (Right shoulder formation mirrors the left shoulder) accumulating more AIR should now begin to be curtailed back as risk is becoming higher than the reward...Once AIR reaches 2.20 - 2.30 area it's decision time whether to realise the 20% capital gain or watch for a bullish behavioural deviation away from the predicted path (red dotted line) (buy signal) or wait for the TA sell signals and give some capital gains back to the market.

Note on the updated overlay the steep drop as predicted (red dotted line), when using an unadjusted price chart some predictions are 100% certain (e.g 35c drop being the announced dividend + Special)

Thanks Hoop.

[Baa_Baa]

An update....AIR's share price is behaving nicely and exactly as predicted (so far)...Back in August 2016 I had taken a view that AIR's shareprice (unadjusted) has topped out and most common topped out behavioural pattern is a H&R pattern so with a better than a 50% - 50% chance of a H&S pattern forming an chartistist can begin operating an odds on investment play by buying AIR (less risky when the $1.80 support [the neck] is confirmed)..The idea is to keep to the investment plan until AIR's behavioural habits change course away from its predicted course (red dotted line).. until then AIR continues to be an accumulation/hold..Note however that AIR is now halfway up the imaginary right hand shoulder of the on going formation of a possible Head and Shoulder pattern so assuming the more common symmetrical version of the H&R pattern (Right shoulder formation mirrors the left shoulder) accumulating more AIR should now begin to be curtailed back as risk is becoming higher than the reward...Once AIR reaches 2.20 - 2.30 area it's decision time whether to realise the 20% capital gain or watch for a bullish behavioural deviation away from the predicted path (red dotted line) (buy signal) or wait for the TA sell signals and give some capital gains back to the market.

Note on the updated overlay the steep drop as predicted (red dotted line), when using an unadjusted price chart some predictions are 100% certain (e.g 35c drop being the announced dividend + Special)

Very close now.

[Beagle]

An update....AIR's share price is behaving nicely and exactly as predicted (so far)...Back in August 2016 I had taken a view that AIR's shareprice (unadjusted) has topped out and most common topped out behavioural pattern is a H&R pattern so with a better than a 50% - 50% chance of a H&S pattern forming an chartistist can begin operating an odds on investment play by buying AIR (less risky when the $1.80 support [the neck] is confirmed)..The idea is to keep to the investment plan until AIR's behavioural habits change course away from its predicted course (red dotted line).. until then AIR continues to be an accumulation/hold..Note however that AIR is now halfway up the imaginary right hand shoulder of the on going formation of a possible Head and Shoulder pattern so assuming the more common symmetrical version of the H&R pattern (Right shoulder formation mirrors the left shoulder) accumulating more AIR should now begin to be curtailed back as risk is becoming higher than the reward...Once AIR reaches 2.20 - 2.30 area it's decision time whether to realise the 20% capital gain or watch for a bullish behavioural deviation away from the predicted path (red dotted line) (buy signal) or wait for the TA sell signals and give some capital gains back to the market.

Note on the updated overlay the steep drop as predicted (red dotted line), when using an unadjusted price chart some predictions are 100% certain (e.g 35c drop being the announced dividend + Special)

That's what I intend doing. Will hold until I see a 3 day confirmed break below 100 day MA, whenever that occurs either sooner or later and then sell the lot.

[Hoop]

Hi Zouga
I have added KW's opening post on this thread as her valuable reference to which I think you are modelling off...Am I correct in assuming this?..
If you are following KW's basic model then it tells you not to accumulate SUM at this moment with the price at $5.23...It's tempting I know as SUM is resting on the EMA50 support line (also the MA50 line).. I use EMA50 because it is a little more sensitive than MA50 to recent price changes..But there's not much difference comparing the two on the SUM chart (I have not used MA50 on the chart below)..

I have gone a little crazy with the chart below..It is always a good idea to have a few extra (not too many) indicators to confirm one against the other..therefore when signals suddenly occur, a mass confirmation is a very strong signal that must be acted upon..When a stock such as SUM meanders around on a slow downtrend a TAer applies patience.. discipline!!!...wait for the signs...as you see on the chart below most of the time when the buy signals fire off you have not lost much in opportunity.....as always with TA you lose a little bit of opportunistic profit when opting for a lower risk strategy. KW's Model is close to the maximum return for risk/reward strategy..

I'll let use digest the other indicators I have added....google where necessary or post questions and I will answer them.

SUM Status....HOLD, DON"T ACCUMULATE YET............SUM had been in a rising SD channel since listing 5 years ago suffering only one 6 month bear cycle during 2014. Since then SUM has been and still is, in a bull cycle with loose bullish scallop pattern type rises (inverted fish hooks)..These are healthy breathers for a stock after a quick run up (rally). At the moment SUM is in weakness (another breather?) short term downtrend with a hint of a bottoming (not reliable)..watch for a MA50 break it can and often happens during a bull cycle correction (breather)..SUM's recent behaviour has seen respect for the MA50 line..If the MA50 breaks it should be observed as a caution sign, it is not the end of the world as often these are nothing more sinister than extended breathers after a hard run up...
One charting observation which should be regarded as a caution is SUM has had an unusual change in its behaviour ..since March 2016 it's behaviour has become more votatile ...Even though SUM has altered its behaviour it is still showing TAer's with much respect..It is a well behaved TA stock.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>

What has happened since the post above??..

Very long term charting summary:...SUM has been in an up trending SD channel since listing over 5 years ago and the share price has gained over 300%

Medium term to the present summary...(refer to chart below)...A week after the 29th September chart posting (the chart above) SUM's TA wheels fell off triggering medium term sell signals (ema50 & 100 breaks adding to the list of breaks) The new bottom ($4.58) respected the MA200 and the subsequent rally in late November ended up being disappointing, triggering buy signals only to see investors getting burnt (Bull Trap). That rally was a sucker type and was quickly confirmed as such on the 8th December when the MA200 line broke indicating SUM had entered into a Technical bear market cycle...

Since the 8th of December we have seen another bottoming out at $4.45 and this latest rally looks to be wilting at the resistance conjunction point of $4.70 where the MA50 ema50 the new confirmed downtrend line and the $4.77 resistance line (not marked in the last chart) meet. Also there at $4.77 are the Ema 100 and MA200 lines..Conjunction resistances are powerful areas to break through and requres large buying pressures..The momentum (momentum indicator not shown but the MACD is shown) at present shows not much buying pressure to speak of and with the price at $4.61 the falling wedge threatening upward breakout (which is now due..Bulkowski) looks in doubt.

The falling Wedge pattern is a poor performing pattern but does have a 68% chance of an upward breakout...Being noted as a poor performer any upward breakout has to continue onwards and upwards to over $5.00 to alleviate sucker rally fears..even as a poor performing breakout the falling wedge pattern is still seen as a buy signal, however it is prudent to wait for further buy signals (The already triggered MACD may be a tad to quick) to help confirm such as the DMI which it seems will trigger about the same time as the EMA100 and MA200 resistance breakouts..If that happens, both medium and long term investors will enter around the same time which in theory should provide larger than "normal" buying pressure....

Until then we should wait so to minimise another downward risk.

[McGinty]

Have come across a new group on Facebook that is focused to Momentum and Technical entries. There could be some past contributors to this thread that continue to share their wisdom/lessons.

Though I would share in the interest of everyone who is keen to continue learning

https://www.facebook.com/groups/919003914837050/

[Hoop]

Have come across a new group on Facebook that is focused to Momentum and Technical entries. There could be some past contributors to this thread that continue to share their wisdom/lessons.

Though I would share in the interest of everyone who is keen to continue learning

https://www.facebook.com/groups/919003914837050/

More TA discussion about PPH on facebook (see link above)

Disc: holding PPH

[Hoop]

An update....AIR's share price is behaving nicely and exactly as predicted (so far)...Back in August 2016 I had taken a view that AIR's shareprice (unadjusted) has topped out and most common topped out behavioural pattern is a H&R pattern so with a better than a 50% - 50% chance of a H&S pattern forming an chartistist can begin operating an odds on investment play by buying AIR (less risky when the $1.80 support [the neck] is confirmed)..The idea is to keep to the investment plan until AIR's behavioural habits change course away from its predicted course (red dotted line).. until then AIR continues to be an accumulation/hold..Note however that AIR is now halfway up the imaginary right hand shoulder of the on going formation of a possible Head and Shoulder pattern so assuming the more common symmetrical version of the H&R pattern (Right shoulder formation mirrors the left shoulder) accumulating more AIR should now begin to be curtailed back as risk is becoming higher than the reward...Once AIR reaches 2.20 - 2.30 area it's decision time whether to realise the 20% capital gain or watch for a bullish behavioural deviation away from the predicted path (red dotted line) (buy signal) or wait for the TA sell signals and give some capital gains back to the market.

Note on the updated overlay the steep drop as predicted (red dotted line), when using an unadjusted price chart some predictions are 100% certain (e.g 35c drop being the announced dividend + Special)

Updated the chart (manually)..The unadjusted chart is behaving surprising well especially that 2.08 unadjusted support line..
Also in play is the 2.28 support..remember AIR's shareprice is going to be 10c less at the commencement of ExDate (Thursday 9th March)...if AIR hangs around the 2.40 price then goes ex date that 2.28 support is a valuable floor and could be a bullish outcome..

Looking at the latest unadjusted weekly chart it is showing attempts to bust through the bull/bear line at $2.40 (2.41)..If it achieves that goal (remember the 10c hit at ex-date) then AIR becomes an unadjusted Bull and the Bear dies...I mention the unadjusted Bull because on the "normal" adjusted charts chart AIR regained Bull status at $2.20 back on the 4th January 2017 (Price above MA200). The difference (adjusted/unadjusted) is one confirming the other..
Another interesting development pointed out to me today by a ST member (via PM) was the formation of an inverted H&S pattern (bullish)...I had not seen the pattern as it is nearly undetectable on the adjusted daily chart...but it is clearly visible on the adjusted weekly chart..The neckline broke at ~$2.25 7 days ago creating a bullish Target price of 2.25 + (2.25 - 1.75) = $2.75.. (Note:- the chart below sees a 4 pointed resistance line at 2.70 ..not drawn in)

Referring to the unadjusted chart below that inverted H&S pattern doesn't exist but its effects may be seen as a predictor that the break out above $~2.41 has a good chance of happening and the big H&S that is still forming will cease to exist ending my dotted line prediction to the rubbish bin...Therefore armed with these different sets of Technical charts..Even though the chart below still has a forming H&S pattern in play (just) and the AIR shareprice is at those resistance points, overall the differing charted TA disciplines are saying don't sell as indicators and patterns remain bullish

[Snow Leopard]

Your post appears to be about the second quarter down of the right most twelfth of that probably over annotated chart (but with a log price axis).

Any chance we get a more focussed rendering?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Joshuatree]

I thought I might start a little discussion on the usefulness of TA for timing. Now I do NOT advocate trading based on TA alone (tried it, lost a lot of money) but if you have used FA to identify a select list of good prospects, TA can be quite useful at knowing when to buy, when to top up, and when to sell. The following are all examples of some of my recent share purchases and sales.

1. When to BUY
I only ever buy companies that are in an uptrend. (Tried buying downtrends, lost a lot of money). The trick is to know when to enter. Get in too early, and the uptrend may turn out to be a dead cat bounce, or fizzle out. Get in too late and you may miss most of the run. My favourite entry point is when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average and the share price is above the 50 day MA. While you miss the early run, the risk of the uptrend not continuing is somewhat abated. I have tried entries based on just the share price crossing above both MA, but 3 out of 4 picks fail to continue on. I confirm the trend by watching the MACD (needs to be in positive territory).

Example: CGF - entry was in early March, when the share price moved back above the 50 day MA and the MACD turned up ($3.64 - $3.81)
Attachment 4517


2. When to TOP UP
Companies that are on exponential uptrends often present difficulties in deciding when to jump in. I have found that many pull back to a moving average, providing excellent entry points while the stock pauses and gets ready for the next leg up. Again, I use the 50 day average and MACD to confirm the uptrend is continuing, rather than the price decline being the start of the new downtrend.

MFG - has been in a strong uptrend for ages, but it took a breather and retreated to just below its 50 day MA. Entry point would have been end of April when the MACD went positive, and the stock price crossed back above the 50 day MA ($6.94 - $7.14)

Attachment 4518

Another great example is SIV - entry point is end of February ($5.90 - $6.28)
Attachment 4519

3. When to SELL
The first warning is when the share price drops below the 50 day moving average and the MACD turns down. This should put the stock on a watch list - its either a good time to top up, or a sell signal is going to be coming up shortly. If the price drops below the 200 day moving average I usually sell (I say usually, because its not uncommon for traders to try to drive the price down that far in order to trigger a bunch of stop losses, so you need to watch out for this little trick as often the share price rebounds immediately. IIN and CSV are good examples of this manipulation). If the "death cross" occurs (where the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average, this is a signal that the downtrend is now firmly established).

ALQ - I bought into this thinking it had turned the corner and was heading back into a strong uptrend. Alas it was not to be, and in mid-March an exit was signalled ($10.50 - $10.80). Even though the price has rebounded recently, its still a death cross situation, and its more likely than not that the downtrend will continue for a while.
Attachment 4520

I hope others find this useful - its how I make decisions at the moment, its very simple, but pretty effective. Its part of my "get rich slow" investment strategy :-) If anyone else has any examples of when they enter or exit, then please post them.

Reminding myself and anyone else its useful for. HLG ,SUM ,RYM looking shaky for ex re getting in sell zone T/A wise. Others?

[Hoop]

TGH released its full year results today and it's been mentioned by management that it is still on track from the December HY interim results which saw TGH share price drop from $1.55 to $1.30...so reading between the lines and taking Management at their word one would assume that the fair price would be around the $1.30 mark.. but it's not to be... as the share price ex announcement today has been a non event.. ($1.15 +1c )

Chart TA is showing mixed signals...The rally from the 1.05 bottom seems to be showing that this time is different as the TA indicators are showing some promise for the first time since the downtrend started back near the IPO. This gives a hint that maybe the 1.05 is the true bottom....However a few days before the FY Results announcement TGH's rally (which had promise after it broke through it's first resistance level) failed at the second resistance point which just happened to be a conjunction area (trend line + EMA110 +resistance line) which indicated a screaming TA chart must sell signal...but since then the announcement did not cause a gap down... so what's happening??..Those early TAers have probably sold a day or two ago will now be watching too...What we do know is TGH is still in a downtrend trend and this latest sucker rally seems to be played out so we wait on the side-lines until the next positive signals arrive.

TGH is very TA friendly, so breaks and failurers should be taken seriously.