Using TA to time entries and exits

[Hoop]

workingdad I just noticed your post ...I will reply when I get time unless someone beats me to it

[workingdad]

Thank you Hoop, things have changed a bit with AIR since then but if the 2.15 mark is the new higher low and it starts to recover again going past the 2.27 point it may be more meaningful

[Xerof]

I like to trade charts naked - google that WD, it's not what you think.

AIR - I alerted folks to the bearish Head and Shoulders formation a while ago, then called the bottom at 2.02, physically entering a position myself a day or 2 later. I recommended a stop level, but I'm naughty and don't follow my own protective recommendations, as I like the thrill of the chase. They are put in to save others from themselves if a disaster happens. Ever since then we have had noise, noise and more noise (in the price, not the thread), and unlike the take-out cups you get on airlines, I see a very nice Cup and Handle has formed on my naked daily. In usual circumstances, this should mean a decent rally.

You correctly observed the higher low at 2.15 - good work

[Baa_Baa]

@Xerof good spotting the C&H suggests a price target of about $2.54, depending on where one sees the neckline which has to breakout to confirm the pattern. That target is also the 50% fib retrace.

[winner69]

@Xerof good spotting the C&H suggests a price target of about $2.54, depending on where one sees the neckline which has to breakout to confirm the pattern. That target is also the 50% fib retrace.

250 is 50% retrace - whats the full retracement target?

[Hoop]

AIR has broken out..
Xerof..I.m not convinced this was a bona fide CwithH pattern...It could be lead in to a possible Bump and Run pattern (assumption)...There was a 5 month downtrend which had a 2 day rally (1 week on the weekly chart) ..is that considered long enough to be an uptrend into the start of this pattern?... One of the guidelines for this bullish continuation pattern is there has to be an established uptrend of at least 30% leading into the CwithH pattern...Also...often Chartists look for CwithH using a weekly chart then zoom in into a daily chart. On the AIR weekly chart it is hard to identify a CwithH pattern

To me (splitting hairs here) I think this is a CwithH look alike pattern which probably has similar trading behavioural attributes and outcomes so I shouldn't be too pedantic about it... so Xerof it's good enough for me...Analysing a target price for a look alike pattern?...Hmmm

Bullowski says a CwithH in a bull market environment (NZX50) is not great but reasonally reliable pattern. It has a low failure rate (5%) (<5% breakout rally) but has a poor history of reaching its target price...The breakout has a 42% of a throwback to the cup lip (so not good chance for me to enter again now as a profitable investment)..The percentage chance a true CwithH pattern has in meeting its target price [measure rhs cup lip from bottom of cup] of $2.51 is only 50%!!! ...

Why 50% probability meeting its target price ($2.51)???..

Looking at AIR chart there is a long term (20 month) resistance zone at $2.30/$2.40 with 6 touching points (sign of reasonable strength) and a long term (19 month) resistance line at $2.50 with 7 touching points and one gap..the gap is a powerful point and is also a warning area as this price area will in the future will have a higher probability of producing gap up or down events..

So..resistance areas do affect the price target performance..as will as other resistance lines e.g MA and down sloping trend lines

Bullkowski offers a better price target measurement which divides the TP measurement by the 50% probability figure...$2.39...This price has a 76% chance of being met....Notice this price is at AIR's resistance zone..

Note:.. Bullowski's stats are from the S&P500 analysis
Disc: own none

[Baa_Baa]

250 is 50% retrace - whats the full retracement target?

Apr 11th intra-day high of $3.05

[kiora]

AIR has broken out..
Xerof..I.m not convinced this was a bona fide CwithH pattern...It could be lead in to a possible Bump and Run pattern (assumption)...There was a 5 month downtrend which had a 2 day rally (1 week on the weekly chart) ..is that considered long enough to be an uptrend into the start of this pattern?... One of the guidelines for this bullish continuation pattern is there has to be an established uptrend of at least 30% leading into the CwithH pattern...Also...often Chartists look for CwithH using a weekly chart then zoom in into a daily chart. On the AIR weekly chart it is hard to identify a CwithH pattern

To me (splitting hairs here) I think this is a CwithH look alike pattern which probably has similar trading behavioural attributes and outcomes so I shouldn't be too pedantic about it... so Xerof it's good enough for me...Analysing a target price for a look alike pattern?...Hmmm

Bullowski says a CwithH in a bull market environment (NZX50) is not great but reasonally reliable pattern. It has a low failure rate (5%) (<5% breakout rally) but has a poor history of reaching its target price...The breakout has a 42% of a throwback to the cup lip (so not good chance for me to enter again now as a profitable investment)..The percentage chance a true CwithH pattern has in meeting its target price [measure rhs cup lip from bottom of cup] of $2.51 is only 50%!!! ...

Why 50% probability meeting its target price ($2.51)???..

Looking at AIR chart there is a long term (20 month) resistance zone at $2.30/$2.40 with 6 touching points (sign of reasonable strength) and a long term (19 month) resistance line at $2.50 with 7 touching points and one gap..the gap is a powerful point and is also a warning area as this price area will in the future will have a higher probability of producing gap up or down events..

So..resistance areas do affect the price target performance..as will as other resistance lines e.g MA and down sloping trend lines

Bullkowski offers a better price target measurement which divides the TP measurement by the 50% probability figure...$2.39...This price has a 76% chance of being met....Notice this price is at AIR's resistance zone..

Note:.. Bullowski's stats are from the S&P500 analysis
Disc: own none

Where you out at $2.30?

[Hoop]

Where you out at $2.30?

No... My TA threw me out at $2.175...I used the more sensitive TA due to AIR being so volatile and on the wrong end of the cycle top..I used the "one sniff of weakness and I'm gone" strategy...It didn't work out but I'm not feeling sad about it, as I fell on my feet ... my AIR funds went into CAV accumulation..a far better short term return so far.

[kiora]

No... My TA threw me out at $2.175...I used the more sensitive TA due to AIR being so volatile and on the wrong end of the cycle top..I used the "one sniff of weakness and I'm gone" strategy...It didn't work out but I'm not feeling sad about it, as I fell on my feet ... my AIR funds went into CAV accumulation..a far better short term return so far.

Well done.Good strategy