Using TA to time entries and exits

[RupertBear]

Thank you so much for your helpful replies. Much appreciated

[Zouga]

Hi I am interested in buying into ANZ and it looks as low as its been in a year however from a TA perspective I would be interested in your feedback. My own observation has been the re testing of support at $24 ish. Thanks.

[percy]

Keep your powder dry a little longer,as the SP is below both the 100 day EMA and the 200 day EMA.
ANZ,AX SP$22.79 100 day EMA $24.48,200 day EMA $25.61.
ANZ,NZ SP $23.78 100 day EMA $26.33 ,200 day EMA $27.70.
If you are really keen wait until the sp goes above the 100 day EMA before buying.

[Baa_Baa]

Hi I am interested in buying into ANZ and it looks as low as its been in a year however from a TA perspective I would be interested in your feedback. My own observation has been the re testing of support at $24 ish. Thanks.

ANZ is in a steep downtrend, very risky entry. That $24 support is a good observation, a double bottom right on the 61.8% fib retrace from the post-GFC lows in 2008! Watch for a bounce or a break down, one defines the risk the other defines the opportunity, it could go either way, wait for confirmation. The 200MA is fairly safe but it's a long way above here around $27.

jmho

[Beagle]

FWIW I agree with Baa Baa and Percy on ANZ. Banking stocks worldwide are under pressure because of Brexit and the fear of bank disruption within the Euro Zone. Both from a technical and fundamental perspective an investment in ANZ at this time would appear to carry a substantial amount of risk.

[Zouga]

Thanks to you all. I will wait patiently for an opportunity here

[Beagle]

Standard and Poors very recently placed all the Aussie banks on negative creditwatch. Chances of some downgrades are pretty good IMO.

Hoop - Would you like to share your updated thoughts on a TA basis on AIR's current situation ?

[Zouga]

I am also watching AIR with interest but am yet to be convinced in the uptrend. According to KWs strategy for buying AIR is still a risk but I would appreciate your feedback.

[Hoop]

Standard and Poors very recently placed all the Aussie banks on negative creditwatch. Chances of some downgrades are pretty good IMO.

Hoop - Would you like to share your updated thoughts on a TA basis on AIR's current situation ?

I am also watching AIR with interest but am yet to be convinced in the uptrend. According to KWs strategy for buying AIR is still a risk but I would appreciate your feedback.

Correct Zouga...there is no uptrend..there's been no higher high and no higher low...KW empathises MA200 line as a bull / bear cycle indicator...when a stock price breaks above the MA200 line that stock enters into a new bull market cycle..AIR needs to be above $2.70 at the moment to gain Bull Status...

AIR is a bear and as long as it stays a bear expect it to exhibit bear behaviour and feelings
..Rallies falter at a resistance level (Sucker/Relief)... followed by lower lows, it's not uncommon to experience some lows of the capitulating variety.
..Medium to long trend lines are down-sloping
..MA200 line is down-sloping.
..MACD spends more time below zero than above zero (above zero are sucker rallies)
..Investors experience the feeling of disappointment/frustration/ bewilderment... (fear only occurs during a capitulation event)
..Sudden change of mood behaviour e.g disappointing announcement during a rally.
..Good news seems to go unrewarded.
..When the stock finally looks like it's coming right the media publishes another round of bad news.
..Sudden bursts of irrational behaviour.

Roger..The chart below is not very inspiring..AIR has stopped it's steep descent and gone into a holding phase A descending triangle pattern has formed. These patterns are slightly bearish as 64% break below the pattern and 36% break above the pattern...External influences help the odds..such as global market rallies would increase the chances of a breakout above the pattern... The bad news is a descending triangle can act as a continuation pattern, which for AIR indicates the pause before the next phase downwards..

All in all the chart is in limbo at the moment...if AIR can close at $2.20 then there is a rosier picture because of the breakout but it really has to get above the $2.30 to become remotely exciting to a medium term TA buyer (higher high)...really needs to be over the $2.40 major resistance area..

AIR has a lot of TA and Charting hurdles to jump over...As usual the best TA buying in strategy is to wait for buy signals.

[Beagle]

Thanks Hoop.