MEL - Meridian Energy

[mouse]

Closing today, 11 November, at 2.455. I wonder why? Has anyone any idea why? It seems only the other day Meridian was $3.10 almost. To lose sixty cents in a couple of months seems a little careless.

[Stranger_Danger]

Closing today, 11 November, at 2.455. I wonder why? Has anyone any idea why? It seems only the other day Meridian was $3.10 almost. To lose sixty cents in a couple of months seems a little careless.

It is seen as a bond proxy - all such stocks are getting slammed.

The thing is, I don't really see it as a bond/fixed interest proxy, not totally, anyway.

If I buy a bond issued in recent times, all I'll get is the coupon. If it turns out interest rates have been artificially low, I'll suffer a capital loss, unless I hold to maturity.

If I invest in a term deposit, I'll receive a significantly lower yield, despite all the talk of what interest rates may do in future, with no prospect of capital gain.

Unless I buy Meridian at a stupidly high price, I'm likely to receive a far higher yield with some prospect of capital gain.

It was getting expensive at $3 and I wish I'd flicked a few, but I'm closer to buying than selling at today's price.

[IAK]

Wow, electricity demand down 3.5% on last November. Lack of irrigation use reduced November 2016 demand to the lowest November month total in 7 years.
So plenty of water around but reduced electricity demand.

[horus1]

It may be that you are starting to see the uneconomic,???, solar having an affect. Alot is going in. Doesn'
t that make some transmission unnecessary.???

[sb9]

Big turnover for the day, more than 8ml shares traded so far...

[Marilyn Munroe]

The has been chatter on other gentailer threads regarding the current heavy rains and the prospect of them easing the current hydro storage situation in the South Island.

Most of the water Meridian uses comes from spill over of West Coast rain into the headwaters of the Southern Alps. Meridian watchers please remember this misquotation from George Bernard Shaw's play Pygmalion;

"The rain on the plain is rarely Meridians gain."

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[horus1]

so why is the spot price not dropping fast. this is price fixingand should be investigated by the commerce commission.

[stoploss]

so why is the spot price not dropping fast. this is price fixingand should be investigated by the commerce commission.

I think he is saying the bulk of the rain falling is not in the Meridian catchment area . So at the moment there is no extra water in the lakes to increase generation and therefore reduce the spot price.

[boysy]

quite right if you view the past 7 days rainfall noting particularly in meridians catchment areas the rainfall pails in comparison to the rest of the south island.

http://www.metservice.com/maps-radar...ainfall-7-days

This being said the next forecast rain band over sunday evening through monday mid day looks set to saturate meridians catchment.

http://www.metservice.com/maps-radar...forecast-3-day

Additionally it would appear as though the lake levels from which meridian generate have been rising marginally of late.

https://www.meridianenergy.co.nz/abo...ns/lake-levels

[fish]

quite right if you view the past 7 days rainfall noting particularly in meridians catchment areas the rainfall pails in comparison to the rest of the south island.

http://www.metservice.com/maps-radar...ainfall-7-days

This being said the next forecast rain band over sunday evening through monday mid day looks set to saturate meridians catchment.

http://www.metservice.com/maps-radar...forecast-3-day

Additionally it would appear as though the lake levels from which meridian generate have been rising marginally of late.

https://www.meridianenergy.co.nz/abo...ns/lake-levels

Looks like you are right.
I was wrong posting on the CEN forum that I felt Meridian was suffering because they have not generated much power this year-there could be other reasons and its a complexity I havnt studied.
How do you think Meridian is doing this year?