MCY Mercury NZ ( MRP Mighty River Power)

[robbo24]

Anyone want to speculate as to how many bonus shares will be issued?

Any of the original IPO shares sold won't qualify and on a FIFO basis a lot of holders will dip out and probably don't realise that.

The last report said something like 90% of IPO shares are still held by the buyers.

A lot of these would be institutions that would not get the bonus shares.

Albeit, perhaps a good guess would be: [Number of shares put aside by the Crown for bonus shares] x 0.9.

[robbo24]

considering the shares are currently overvalued I would expect weakness once the new shares are issued.

What's the dividend yield on MRP at the moment? What is a "good" dividend yield? On the basis of dividend yield, at what point does MRP become undervalued?

[couta1]

considering the shares are currently overvalued I would expect weakness once the new shares are issued.

I'd say fairly valued at current levels remember it hit $3.56 a while back and the big boys were happy to snap them up at $3.40 and over on good volumes for a period of time. Looking at the change in weather patterns recently I'd say water levels are in for a good boost over the next few months.

[bull....]

im out of all gentailers now - next 3 mths big risks bonus shares released , te wai point can be announced it is closing I may re-enter after these events pass

[robbo24]

snaps has done much research on this one
The dividend yield has been skewed by a special one off divi that the company did not have the earnings to justify paying....just simply paid to help the government balance the books.

...sure that's technically correct because they will pay it from borrowings but I assure you it will have a big effect on EPS.

Where did the money from the bond issue go snaps?

[couta1]

lol........easy for the big boys to buy when they are using other people's money.
What fundamentals are you using to come up with your current fair value couta.
Yes weather patterns have changed but flows are still below normal.

Analysts consenses low target of $2.97 and high of $3.52 so at the moment we are at the bottom end ( I know its only a guide) I reckon were in for a good winter snow wise so come spring those water levels will get a good boost.

[Baa_Baa]

Morningstar (argh them!) value $2.90 HOLD 10 Mar 2015. Current SP under the 200EMA and indicators oversold, I think it's looking like good value, whether that's fair value or not?

Analysts consenses low target of $2.97 and high of $3.52 so at the moment we are at the bottom end ( I know its only a guide) I reckon were in for a good winter snow wise so come spring those water levels will get a good boost.

[ratkin]

Good news for original holders that plenty of others have been shaken out by the price weakness, will cause less dilution when the free shares are dished out

[couta1]

Good news for original holders that plenty of others have been shaken out by the price weakness, will cause less dilution when the free shares are dished out

There should be no dilution as my understanding is that the free shares will come out of crown stock so already accounted for if you get my drift.

[Snow Leopard]

Lake Taupo levels and flows starting to look better - I hope it continues - maybe the SP is coupled to the lake level?

Also it has been interesting to note that the North Island has been a lot more self-sufficient (that is generating their own electric) than I would have thought for the last few weeks.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger