AUDNZD - Five Year Lows

[winner69]

So right, winner!

Too many commentators who automatically see the half full glass as empty. But then, they're probably talking their own books!

Yes definitely pushing their own barrow, macduffy. And the crowds are joining in.

Westpac put out their Local Knowledge Report today. Of the 20 economic series they monitors net 30% (difference between % rising less % falling) are rising. Not often that high. Heaps more things doing better than last month than doing worse - glass more than half full.

But because it's slightly down from previous report the commentary is all about the sky falling in and we must have interest rate cuts and all that - wonder what their motive is?

[Daytr]

What is doing better? The obvious from me is sheep & beef, tourism (lower dollar), so yep agree its not all negative, but be interested in hearing what other industries you think are doing better ?

[macduffy]

What is doing better? The obvious from me is sheep & beef, tourism (lower dollar), so yep agree its not all negative, but be interested in hearing what other industries you think are doing better ?

Well, for a starter, any business, in any industry, that exports, is benefitting from a lower NZD!

[Daytr]

Yeah sure, so they are benefitting from a weaker economy in a sense.
That's been my bias from the start.
Kiwi much lower & will benefit NZ as an export led economy.
Kiwifruit did very well this year.

[winner69]

What is doing better? The obvious from me is sheep & beef, tourism (lower dollar), so yep agree its not all negative, but be interested in hearing what other industries you think are doing better ?

Daytr, here's that Westpac report and the suite of the 20 things they look at

You not this Michael guy are you .....commentary is very much what you are saying. I mainly have a look at the pictures .....more things going up than down is what I see

You don't need to read the last few pages by the way

https://wibiq.westpac.com.au/wibiqau..._July_2015.pdf

[Daytr]

Haha, do you think if I had a real job I would be spending so much time on here!
Interesting he used agricultural out in tons rather than dollars, which would be a much better chart to use.
What is quite apparent is that we need to host another world cup!

[Daytr]

Interesting pullback in the Kiwi/Aussie cross after Key did the NZ economy no favours yesterday after the market interpreted Key's comments that the Kiwi had moved to far too fast. Doesn't the market realize this guy was in sales, not a trader! ;-)
Either way its presented what I think maybe an opportunity prior to the RBNZ decision on rates.
If they cut 50, watch the cross blow out back toward at least 1.14.
Eventually I think we are heading to 1.18 but possibly quite a bit weaker as that would really only be an historic average rate against the Aussie.

[JBmurc]

Yeah sure, so they are benefitting from a weaker economy in a sense.
That's been my bias from the start.
Kiwi much lower & will benefit NZ as an export led economy.
Kiwifruit did very well this year.

Yes a major boom for the exporters margins increasing from the currency weakness ...sadly many have to deal with lower commodity prices
still could have been so much worse had the NZD stayed high ... looking forward to 1.18 AUD / NZD should finally get a pay rise

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/20/commo...n-decline.html

Commodity currencies: Who's the ugliest of them all?

[winner69]

At this rate might need to get ready for those parity parties