AUDNZD - Five Year Lows

[Mush]

Goldman Sachs analyst is one of the few sensible analysts around - he says NZ don't need any more rate cuts

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...imb-over-rates

I've been debating this with a few colleagues of late. We all know the guvna is playing currency wars for the exporters, inflation is a lost cause as there's not much of that going around anywhere at the moment.
First glance it looks like cutting below the 3% OCR level has caused the NZD to rally (as seen in below graph)

Attachment 8323

However that poses the question, where would the NZD be now if they hadn't have cut further to 2%?

Wheels is in a tough position, reluctantly cutting to keep the currency under control somewhat. Only positive is that the banks are not fully passing on the cut to borrowers/savers so it isn't fueling the housing fire as much.

[Edwood]

Some nice moves the last few days Daytr, big morning star formed on the weekly

[Valuegrowth]

As I said before still NZD has some support. After rates cut instead of going down, NZD went up. House prices also went up and up. Sooner we don't see some sort of adjustment to the NZD, there could be some hard landing at some point. We should see real picture from 2018/19 onwards. By that time we should be able to get clear idea about FED and their policies as well.

[Daytr]

Yep, its been a good week. AUD/NZD well in the money and actually halved my position. Will top up again if we fall back.
Also went short JPY vs USD close to 100 & gold long around $1311. Been some very good swings which is a great trading environment.
RBNZ fighting a losing battle with interest rates and its dangerous as NZ has an incredibly inflated property market.
Both the ccy & property is being impacted by inflows caused by immigration.
The RBNZ can't and shouldn't fight government policy. If the government wants strong immigration, then one of the consequences is a strong dollar.

[Edwood]

Nice work! Happy to be long AUD as a core position and add, plenty of blue sky above. Assuming US raise this year and we get an OCR cut we'll be off to the races!
A Vancouver-style property tax would be a great idea - can't see it happening though, John Key isn't showing much spine on what is becoming a problem

ATTACH=CONFIG]8326[/ATTACH]

[Daytr]

Yeah that's my same thought with the Yen. I can see that going back toward 120 to the USD.
I'd like to see the AUD/NZD strengthen again back toward 1.02. But it seems to like 1.05+ at the moment.

[Edwood]

AUDNZD not looking like coming back yet unfortunately Daytr, might hit some resistance around the 1.072 area - good spot on the Yen, thanks, that has potential
Also potential for NZDUSD to be back around the 0.66 area soon-ish

[winner69]

NZD Hanging in around Aoo.96

Still might see parity ...maybe

[Hoop]

NZD Hanging in around Aoo.96

Still might see parity ...maybe

Yeah....I'm noticing the macro's are looking healthier e.g commodity prices are ticking back up...wool oil dairy metals (iron ore, copper etc)..great news for the big commodity exporting nations like Aussie and Canada (NZ too)..
Parity depends on who would benefit better going forward from here, NZ or OZ? A tough question to answer..both will do well but purely from the macro viewpoint my gut feel favours OZ

[peat]

There is a large bullish gartley on the AUD/NZD cross, but its on the monthly timeframe so could take a while to eventuate, or of course it could fail ;+)