AUDNZD - Five Year Lows

[Hoop]

Traders trying to push through 95 but being rebuffed each time. Can it hold???

Following on from the 9 month down sloping channel break 3 weeks ago (see my chart post #126 8th Dec).... the NZ/Aus correction has ended and presently at a long term higher high of 0.9510

[BFG]

Yup, nice little breakthrough yesterday. After two spikes higher it slowly ground above .95 up to .9530.

Do we have an upside target price Hoop, or are we intotally blue sky territory? I will be looking to transfer more money across the ditch at the start of 2015.

[winner69]

OMG - an Aussie say parity .... and then more

http://www.smh.com.au/business/marke...23-12cxlj.html

[BFG]

OMG - an Aussie say parity .... and then more

http://www.smh.com.au/business/marke...23-12cxlj.html

I don't see how it could reach $1.05. Both key commodities have fallen drastically. Both governments have announced big losses (NZ most recently). Wheeler will not raise rates again as interest rates will definitely attract even more money to push up an already highly inflated Kiwi. RBNZ has said they're already intervening in the market. I can't see this happening because of all these issues.

And then he goes on to say vs the Greenback it will strengthen! With Oz cutting rates and US strengthening them, with a massively resurgent economy to boot! This guy is smoking some serious hooch! :O

[Hoop]

Yup, nice little breakthrough yesterday. After two spikes higher it slowly ground above .95 up to .9530.

Do we have an upside target price Hoop, or are we intotally blue sky territory? I will be looking to transfer more money across the ditch at the start of 2015.

Sorry BFG for not responding quicker..I haven't had much time lately to view ST posts...and I've just found this one I should respond to.

Referring back to my previous chart.. the TA Targets after the breakout is approx 0.955 for the channel breakout and ~0.97 for the broadening pattern. The trading targets aren't resistance points, they are just points or lines in the sand that suggest there's a ~70% chance of the NZ$ reaching that point after the breakout as long as there are no strong resistances in the way...The broadening wedge pattern target has a strong resistance point in the way...so it would be a much less than 70% chance,,,therefore not a useful target point...and the TA target focus would be on the ~0.955 (the point where Technical Traders may offload [sell])


However it not quite "blue sky" yet...I'm working off an interactive chart* so the figures and dates might not be entirely accurate but it says.. back in Jan and March 2014 the previous double tops (just under 0.95) showed how powerful that historic resistance (~July 1995) was to break...With NZ$ breaking that point recently, will it now be a strong support point??..Theoretically Yes...and provide a much less buy in risk area..
To reach blue sky (assuming since NZ$ free market status) the NZ$ has to break above the ~0.958 * area (Dec 5th 2005)..If the previous historic resistance before that was a guide then reaching "blue sky" could be a difficult hurdle to jump..

If blue sky is reached, there is no existing resistances, so chances of reaching parity would be much improved ...At 1.00 (parity) I would expect there to be a psychological boundary (resistance) area

[winner69]

Psychology around parity is interesting

Take the aud/usd a few years ago. Parity a stretch they said. Never said others. Maybe for a few days others said.

Well it reached parity and went all the way to $1.10 and stayed over $1.00 for more than 2 years

All comes down to rates fundamentally being driven by the relative strengths of economies.

At present the AUD/NZD is going all the NZD way. Those relative strengths of the two economies suggest anything is possible .....maybe parity and like the aud/usd a while ago maybe $1.10. That be exciting

[BFG]

Cheers Hoop. I'm waiting to see if it breaks .955-.958 before buying. If it does, sweet, more bang for my buck. If not, oh well, don't mind buying a downtrend with money already over there from 94-95 days earier this year

[Valuegrowth]

I found very interesting link. Will the Australian dollar go historic low against the New Zealand dollar or go below parity next year?

http://www.smh.com.au/business/marke...23-12cxlj.html

Australian dollar on track to dip below parity with New Zealand

[Daytr]

I think what we are seeing in the Aussie economy i'e dramatic slowdown, we are yet to see here as the collapse of the commodity boom & capex spend is already hitting Australia, whereas the dairy price for instance won't hit until next year. I think the RBNZ rate rises will prove to he a mistake & they will need to reverse them in 2015. Auckland property is being fueled by offshore influences & immigration & higher interest rates hardly affect them.

[Daytr]

I've just picked up some Aussie on the cross.
Could be bottom pinching, but then again I've pinched a few Aussie bottoms my time & its been quite a rewarding experience. ;-)