AUDNZD - Five Year Lows

**Hoop** · 19-11-2014, 12:03 AM

Forex is notoriously difficult area to grasp
As you can see from a longer term chart below there's... whipsaws everywhere...no valid support/resistance lines ...no decent trend lines,... and no chart patterns...there's not much to work with...
Showing a broader picture of where the NZD/AUD is heading is limited ...I have added the standard Deviation channel and the 200day moving average.. and even then I would have little to no confidence as to whether a breakout would be genuine ...

So where is the NZD heading?...I have no idea but at this moment it is still tracking within its downward SD channel.

**BFG** · 19-11-2014, 07:28 AM

Hoop, would you then consider the dollar as manipulated then as noted in the gold thread? I know you look for clear indicators as to whether a trade is, but if there is a lack of any sensibility does it also suggest manipulation? I noted a downtrend line over the past year from 95 cent high but there are frequent bull traps with breaks (this could be yet another).

Meanwhile, dairy trade down ANOTHER 3%. There has to be repercussions of this at some point...

https://www.globaldairytrade.info/

**stoploss** · 19-11-2014, 01:47 PM

Originally Posted by BFG

Hoop, would you then consider the dollar as manipulated then as noted in the gold thread? I know you look for clear indicators as to whether a trade is, but if there is a lack of any sensibility does it also suggest manipulation? I noted a downtrend line over the past year from 95 cent high but there are frequent bull traps with breaks (this could be yet another).

Meanwhile, dairy trade down ANOTHER 3%. There has to be repercussions of this at some point...

https://www.globaldairytrade.info/

BFG it might be a case of both the AUD and NZD being weak ...tumbling Dairy prices vs tumbling Iron ore, Oil etc ......reading a few of the posts from KW paints a pretty negative picture over the ditch . My pick is RBA to cut rates , so I would imagine although dairy getting a kicking until housing under control in Auck , RBNZ on hold Kiwi will appreciate vs the AUD over the next year .

**BFG** · 22-11-2014, 05:44 PM

Downtrend line solidly broken this week on lower iron ore prices in Oz and a fifth straight stronger consumer index read in NZ (although GDT auction down another 3% as well).

I am not, however, bringing my money back across the ditch. China just announced rate cuts and ECB announced bond buying (read: QE US style) on Friday and I expect these to help the AUD much more than the Kiwi. I am also expecting a LOSS on the governments books on December 9th rather than a PROFIT as promised. You can't have your country's main commodity tumble 50% in a year and expect that! I highly doubt Wheeler will raise rates further this year if currency wars are still ongoing with a vastly overvalued NZD.

Will buy more soon if strength continues. This can't continue forever.

**Xerof** · 23-11-2014, 09:54 PM

A cursory glance at Hoops's chart and this leaps out..... Sorry moosie

image.jpg

**BFG** · 27-11-2014, 05:50 PM

Originally Posted by Xerof

A cursory glance at Hoops's chart and this leaps out..... Sorry moosie

image.jpg

No need to be sorry, the market being irrational is not your fault!

Previous downtrend line now back in effect. Target is bounce off 93. If it goes that high I'll just shift more across the Tasman, didn't think I'd see another opportunity like that again!

**winner69** · 02-12-2014, 04:38 PM

Originally Posted by Xerof

A cursory glance at Hoops's chart and this leaps out..... Sorry moosie

image.jpg

Chart seems to be playing out ..... spooky eh

Almost back to .93

Maybe the relative economic fundamentals between the two countries is what really drives the cross rate, just maybe. Weird eh

**BFG** · 04-12-2014, 07:54 PM

Originally Posted by winner69

Chart seems to be playing out ..... spooky eh

Almost back to .93

Maybe the relative economic fundamentals between the two countries is what really drives the cross rate, just maybe. Weird eh

I can't see NZD hitting 95 again vs AUD as both Iron Ore and Dairy have been decimated to the same degree, but I still believe RBNZ will stay away from further rates rises while the rest of the world continues easing and they look to drvalue the Kiwi.

I'm betting English announces that there has been a surprise deficit (December 16th) and Fonterra will drastically slashes farmgate prices next week. Sounds like a pretty bug double whammy coming up before Xmas...

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/325977/another-1-payout-likely