AUDNZD - Five Year Lows

[Daytr]

love your work winner......amazing how a bit of jaw boning from the RBNZ backed up by banking guru's self interest comments can turn rosie into a pile of muck so quickly.
Mean while our rate stands at 3.5% versus Aussie 2% our unemployment rate is better and the government books are far better than AUS

That might be the snapshot right now Snapiti, but markets project forward & the market is saying the picture going forward isn't so rosy & the RBNZ might narrow that interest rate differential. When you have a yield trade in play, there is a lot of fast money that is exposed to the ccy & some of the sharp depreciation will be flow out protecting capital & trying to beat the pack. So from that perspective we may have seen the worst & may well see a settling down after a very swift 8c move against the Aussie.

[winner69]

yes agree but the markets have firmly priced in expectations of a rate cut now.....I am not convinced we will see one at the next meeting

.......unless Mr Wheeler is 'conned' by all this bank propaganda. They (banks) are dead set on getting lower interest rates, no doubt for their own benefit. Hope Wheeler has some spine

As I said a week or so ago OCR cuts this year will not be good in the medium and longer term.

[dingoNZ]

.......unless Mr Wheeler is 'conned' by all this bank propaganda. They (banks) are dead set on getting lower interest rates, no doubt for their own benefit. Hope Wheeler has some spine

As I said a week or so ago OCR cuts this year will not be good in the medium and longer term.

Strettttttttttttttttttttttch those equity valuation out just a touch more.

You're right, it will end in tears

[PSE]

Wheeler must be planning some different levers to cool the housing bubble surely, so that they don't have to rely on interest rates rising and destroying the last pathetic fragments of our export industry?
At least I really hope he had a plan, if not I am with you guys - seems nuts.

[Daytr]

I'm thinking a rate cut around September, however the RBNZ will also be aware that it takes around 6 months for rate cuts to take effect so they may jump the gun early. They will be pretty happy with what their jawboning has achieved in the last few weeks in regards the ccy especially on the Aussie cross.

[winner69]

Retail sales booming according to Stats NZ retail Trade Survey for March

Even guru bank economists from Westpac surprised - quote 'Indeed, relative to our own expectations this was a modest upside surprise - we were primed for the drop in retail prices but the value of spending was even stronger than we had expected. One consequence could be an upgrade to our GDP forecast. '

[Daytr]

Lower fuel prices are probably the main driver I would have thought.
Most predictions I have read is spending to slow as the Dairy price bust hits home in a few months.

[winner69]

Lower fuel prices are probably the main driver I would have thought.
Most predictions I have read is spending to slow as the Dairy price bust hits home in a few months.

Retail sales even stronger if you back fuel sales out (they were down). The extra cash consumers had might have had them buying more laptops, furniture, and meals out etc. but at th end of the highest even of spending for many years

More to the economy than dairy prices daytr - over time there is very little (if any at all) correlation between dairy prices and economic growth in nz

[Daytr]

Exactly as fuel prices dropped people had more to spend on other retail. So the core retail sales increase of 2.9% was which is a bumper number was largely due to lower fuel prices as I said. Total retail sales were up a healthy 0.3% on the previous period.

Retail sales even stronger if you back fuel sales out (they were down). The extra cash consumers had might have had them buying more laptops, furniture, and meals out etc. but at th end of the highest even of spending for many years

More to the economy than dairy prices daytr - over time there is very little (if any at all) correlation between dairy prices and economic growth in nz

[winner69]

Exactly as fuel prices dropped people had more to spend on other retail. So the core retail sales increase of 2.9% was which is a bumper number was largely due to lower fuel prices as I said. Total retail sales were up a healthy 0.3% on the previous period.

Comparing March quarter this yearvv March quarter last year. Actual sales and non of this seasonally adjusted stuff

Fuel sales were down $176m (impact of lower pump prices)

All other sales were up $1.108m ($1.1 billion) or 7% more than last year last year

So plenty saved on fuel but heaps more than what they saved was spent on other things.

The average quarterly increase (over prior year) in core sales has been about 4% - the 7% (close to 6% if we assume that savings from fuel was spent on treats and shouldn't be counted) in March is much stronger than that. I say really strong

Or are we arguing different things?