GNE - Genesis Energy

[Joshuatree]

Looks like a big wet windy two days coming but that could be a lot of snow down south as you say.

[fish]

The lower South Island has seen no significant rain since early February and is now in a moderate drought. The problem with a normal winter is that it is cold and rain comes as snow so the water doesn't flow into the lakes until October. A normal winter does not signal normal river flows, a normal autumn would do that.

I notice also SI power prices very high.
So I guess this will persist for at least 4 months with high power prices in both Islands-more in south though.
So is Genesis the only company that can increase generation.
I wonder if the market has forgotten about contact-normally they generate more than they have customers-the opposite to GEN.
Who will do the best out of this situation-?trustpower ?contact ?genesis?

[sideline]

I notice also SI power prices very high.
So I guess this will persist for at least 4 months with high power prices in both Islands-more in south though.
So is Genesis the only company that can increase generation.
I wonder if the market has forgotten about contact-normally they generate more than they have customers-the opposite to GEN.
Who will do the best out of this situation-?trustpower ?contact ?genesis?

I suspect with the rain coming at least in the north island it will mostly be MCY. Their shareprice seems to have that factored in already, I think.
Contact will be kicking their own asses for having decommissioned their Otahuhu B gas fired power station a year or two too early.
They are however running full tilt with whatever they have left in gas - I noticed that they are drawing down gas from their storage facility.

[fish]

I suspect with the rain coming at least in the north island it will mostly be MCY. Their shareprice seems to have that factored in already, I think.
Contact will be kicking their own asses for having decommissioned their Otahuhu B gas fired power station a year or two too early.
They are however running full tilt with whatever they have left in gas - I noticed that they are drawing down gas from their storage facility.

I wonder if decommissioning Otahuhu was a long-term strategic move.power prices were too low.Taking it out has put up prices to their advantage.
As for Genesis are they being forced to burn coal as they have too many customers/contacts too supply.
Has the market taken the wrong message?
Maybe Jantar or snoopy can work this one out?
I certainly dont know

[Bobdn]

I don't know either. I'm assuming (guessing) they've been supplying power to Meridian and Contact as per last year's agreement over the rankine units.

[sideline]

I wonder if decommissioning Otahuhu was a long-term strategic move.power prices were too low.Taking it out has put up prices to their advantage.
As for Genesis are they being forced to burn coal as they have too many customers/contacts too supply.
Has the market taken the wrong message?
Maybe Jantar or snoopy can work this one out?
I certainly dont know

Genesis have a lot of retail customers - if they are on a fixed contract the current high spot prices are no advantage to Genesis there.
I also remember that Genesis is long retail in the South island - so they will need to buy in power from other generators in SI.

[Jantar]

I wonder if decommissioning Otahuhu was a long-term strategic move.power prices were too low.Taking it out has put up prices to their advantage.
As for Genesis are they being forced to burn coal as they have too many customers/contacts too supply.
Has the market taken the wrong message?
Maybe Jantar or snoopy can work this one out?
I certainly dont know

I can not comment on how the companies may be placed. Let's just say that over the past couple of weeks I have reduced my holdings in two of the gentailers

[fish]

I can not comment on how the companies may be placed. Let's just say that over the past couple of weeks I have reduced my holdings in two of the gentailers

Thanks everyone for comments.
I will be frank and open-I have sold a lot of GEN over the past 2 weeks after making good profits and feeling the market had over-reacted with thoughts of big profits for GEN.
I have put that money into CEN mainly but also SUM.
I wonder about MRP making big profits and meridian struggling.
Could you be more specific Jantar as I do value your opinion

[Jantar]

.....
Could you be more specific Jantar as I do value your opinion

Unfortunately I cannot be more specific as events over the past two weeks would mean it would be insider trading. Even I cannot now trade in any of the energy companies for the next 7 - 8 weeks.

[fish]

Unfortunately I cannot be more specific as events over the past two weeks would mean it would be insider trading. Even I cannot now trade in any of the energy companies for the next 7 - 8 weeks.

Jantar I would have thought posting on a public forum information that should be known would be the opposite to insider trading.You clearly know things that should be known by all.Morally wouldnt it be good?

I feel you would be safe to post here but respectfully have to leave it to you