Auckland housing market

[artemis]

Interesting article in the Herald today.

"Parents could save hundreds of thousands of dollars by forgoing properties in elite Auckland school zones then privately educating their children with the money saved by buying elsewhere, new data reveals."



http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11392191

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK141...isk-for-nz.htm

Auckland housing market bursting-bubble a risk for NZ

[vorno]

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK141...isk-for-nz.htm

Auckland housing market bursting-bubble a risk for NZ

There is only risk if the demand disappears and/or the interest rates hike up. Auckland cannot keep up with demand.
Here's an example from those who rent: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11394453
Also, don't forget migration http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/e...t-economy.html

...Ever since the 2011 earthquake in CHCH - prices have gone mad.
In my opinion, Auckland is the next London - luckily we're no where near their levels yet.

[Valuegrowth]

Will a bust follow the boom? We had a boom in NZ dollar and AUD. Now they are plummeting. I think every asset has cycle. Stock market has cycle, commodity market has cycle, property market has cycle, currency and other assets also have cycles. We didn’t see meaningful correction in housing markets in Australia and New Zealand. Two of the over valued housing markets in the world. In New Zealand, Auckland housing market poses threat to the economy. I think Auckland housing market is more vulnerable now. After oil, gold, NZD and AUD we may see fall in prices in other asset classes specially over valued housing markets in Australia and New Zealand.

[Beagle]

History has shown us time and again that as interest rates get cheaper houses get dearer. Today in the market we have a new mortgage low of only 5.19% fixed for two years, see www.interst.co.nz and last week we had a new 10 year fixed rate by TSB of 5.89%. These sort of things seriously influence the market but by far the biggest influence is the tsunami of Asian buyers which shows no sign of relenting.

[skid]

Just read this. I wonder if this will be the beginning of the great property crash in Australia and New Zealand?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tro...MW_latest_news

"Another possibility is authorities will step up efforts to trap liquidity inside China.
We have already witnessed this in Macau. The gambling enclave has now recorded its eighth months of declining gaming revenues after a clampdown on the movement of illicit funds. Beijing has also been proceeding with efforts to clamp down on overseas property purchases by mainland Chinese that skirt capital controls."

IMO this would be the area that would cause the most damage to house prices in NZ (and many other places)---The new catch phrase is ''Birth Tourism'' (Chinese coming to a western country to give birth and get citizenship to have a ticket out of China.)--Its happening big time in the USA.
I believe in NZ its happening more with students coming for education and then immigrating.

The Chinese Gov. has apparently put an extra tax on Chinese to travel (in an attempt to keep Chinese tourist money in China)

There is no reason they could not pass laws to keep people in China full stop (if it suits them)

Or the respective Governments tightening up immigration laws.

All these things would have an effect on housing--but will they happen is the big question.

I heard a statement once by Tony Alexander that said ''If you do something that makes China unhappy politically--they will make you pay economically''-so it may be more an issue of what china wants,than what NZ wants.

[Schrodinger]

IMO this would be the area that would cause the most damage to house prices in NZ (and many other places)---The new catch phrase is ''Birth Tourism'' (Chinese coming to a western country to give birth and get citizenship to have a ticket out of China.)--Its happening big time in the USA.
I believe in NZ its happening more with students coming for education and then immigrating.

The Chinese Gov. has apparently put an extra tax on Chinese to travel (in an attempt to keep Chinese tourist money in China)

There is no reason they could not pass laws to keep people in China full stop (if it suits them)

Or the respective Governments tightening up immigration laws.

All these things would have an effect on housing--but will they happen is the big question.

I heard a statement once by Tony Alexander that said ''If you do something that makes China unhappy politically--they will make you pay economically''-so it may be more an issue of what china wants,than what NZ wants.

This applies to any large economy. It is amusing to see China being picked on while other Western powers display the same behaviour.

[skid]

China is more powerful economically than alot of other western countries,but your right of course.
There are certainly other countries that would like to have a piece of NZ. and some of them may also have a slight effect on Auckland housing.

[vorno]

China is more powerful economically than alot of other western countries,but your right of course.
There are certainly other countries that would like to have a piece of NZ. and some of them may also have a slight effect on Auckland housing.

*The debt of China (primarily corporations I believe) has raised from ~$7 trillion in 2007 to ~20 trillion now. That's around 282% of China's GDP.

*Also, I believe China is looking to tighten the chains on "money" leaving the country. Hence, it might just have a correction factor here, depending on the numbers of Chinese moving to NZ.

*I can't remember where I obtained said material, feel free to correct me!

[Bjauck]

Another report on the impact of overseas investors on the property market. As usual no action will be taken as MPs themselves are mostly property owners and have time horizons of a 3-year parliamentary term.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...ern-banks-kpmg