sharetrader
Page 43 of 50 FirstFirst ... 33394041424344454647 ... LastLast
Results 631 to 645 of 738

Thread: Orion Health

  1. #631
    Divorced from logic Hectorplains's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2015
    Location
    Christchurch
    Posts
    437

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...+18+April+2017

    Not realizing the current severity of the cash flow crisis ?, you be the judge. One things for sure, if they do manage to get a further capital raise done it won't be close to the current price. Whether there's a relief rally after that notwithstanding an issue at what could be significantly less than the current SP, who can say...

    No matter what you think of Mr Mcrae's stated back to basics approach any company losing money at the rate they are needs to be classified at highly speculative and extreme risk in my opinion. Be careful folks its very easy for a CEO and controlling shareholder to have myopic vision and not being able to see the wood for the trees in terms of the commercial cash flow reality of the situation (in my experience as an accountant for over 30 years), is more common than many might imagine... It must be cheap because its now only trading at one fifth of the share price it once was right ? Not necessarily !
    Hmmm, "troll articles." That's Presidential speak...

    Althou' this is more promising https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/orion-...orset-b-201955
    Last edited by Hectorplains; 18-04-2017 at 10:16 AM. Reason: Add link.
    One chord wonder.

  2. #632
    Member Marilyn Munroe's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Hollywood
    Posts
    415

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    No matter what you think of Mr Mcrae's stated back to basics approach any company losing money at the rate they are needs to be classified at highly speculative and extreme risk in my opinion. Be careful folks its very easy for a CEO and controlling shareholder to have myopic vision and not being able to see the wood for the trees in terms of the commercial cash flow reality of the situation (in my experience as an accountant for over 30 years), is more common than many might imagine... It must be cheap because its now only trading at one fifth of the share price it once was right ? Not necessarily !
    Thanks for your insight Roger but would not the ASB have had a "come to Jesus" meeting with Mr Mcrae and withheld their blessing if he failed "to see the light"?

    Boop boop de do
    Marilyn
    Diamonds are a girls best friend.

  3. #633
    Membaa
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Paradise
    Posts
    1,870

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Marilyn Munroe View Post
    Thanks for your insight Roger but would not the ASB have had a "come to Jesus" meeting with Mr Mcrae and withheld their blessing if he failed "to see the light"?

    Boop boop de do
    Marilyn
    Usually the insights in this type of situation are to fire the CEO and the Board, which may well be warranted for taking their eye off the ball that made this company successful prior to IPO!

    In this case though, McRae has decided, as he is perfectly entitled to do as majority shareholder, to revert to pre-IPO responsibilities and sort out the mess. That sounds a bit like he's putting all the blame on the management that he himself put in place to run the business post-IPO! It also pre-supposes that he can facilitate the reversion to profit! If not they're a goner.

    I agree, that this company has pretty much stuffed up the listing process, the subsequent management, the errant shareholder promises, the sales pipeline and the expense profile of the company. There's not a lot else they could screw up.

    I don't agree though that firing McRae (which can't happen) or the Board is the right solution, however now that they are at the behest of the bank, it will only be successive wins, revenue growth, and cost cutting that will keep them afloat.

    The risks are extreme. The rewards could also be extreme. The Porsche drivers who bought DIL in the depths of despair will be licking their chops at another potential windfall, albeit a few years of recovery that will necessarily follow.

    Don't write off OHE just yet. They are bigger, generate more revenue, and are way more deeply embedded in their long term customers than their recent performance suggests.

    I actually think McRae is the only person that could possibly bring OHE back to life. He's given himself 10 years to do that. A punt into the bottom of the SP, wherever that ends up, might be worth a decade of waiting. Sad though that it's devolved to being a bet on McRae, a mere punt, a bet, like lotto or the horses.

    JMHO
    BAA
    BAA

  4. #634
    Give a Dog a Bone...
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    6,988

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Marilyn Munroe View Post
    Thanks for your insight Roger but would not the ASB have had a "come to Jesus" meeting with Mr Mcrae and withheld their blessing if he failed "to see the light"?

    Boop boop de do
    Marilyn
    Thanks for your thoughts Marilyn. I agree that Judgement day cometh. Banks are fair weather friends. If the bank committee thinks Mr Mcrae isn't following a sound pathway of light, he'll be shown the darkness pretty quickly.
    Banks don't like their facilities being used as a form of quasi equity, he better raise some new equity quickly or...

    I think he's done a truly appalling job of "managing" the resources investors entrusted him with but those that invested without any financial projections should perhaps ask themselves why they had such blind faith in one they didn't know ?

    Excellent post Baa Baa. Investors have good reason to bleat like lambs lost from their mother, sorry mate, I couldn't help myself

    Disc: I see no contrition or remorse for the tremendous destruction of others capital resources so wouldn't entrust him with a single dollar of mine.
    Last edited by Beagle; 19-04-2017 at 12:23 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  5. #635
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    , , Bolivia.
    Posts
    929

  6. #636
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Posts
    97

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    Welding the scalpel...
    https://soundcloud.com/nbr-radio/ori...jobs-rd-budget - Ian McCrae commenting on NBR.

  7. #637
    Give a Dog a Bone...
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    6,988

    Default

    I wouldn't mind betting a couple of bob the bank told him to right size the company. Any way you slice and dice this thing its looks reactive not proactive and is a circa 10% reduction in head count really enough ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 21-04-2017 at 05:13 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  8. #638
    Membaa
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Paradise
    Posts
    1,870

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    I wouldn't mind betting a couple of bob the bank told him to right size the company. Any way you slice and dice this thing its looks reactive not proactive and is a circa 10% reduction in head count really enough ?
    I'd say you're almost certainly correct that now OHE is at the behest of their bank that the bank said strip out some costs!

    It won't be enough in Toto though, to put the company back on a solid footing. If we assume an average of $100k salaries which isn't unreasonable in the IT sector, then 10% of 1200 staff = $12m of savings. It's a good start, but not enough.

    OHE need to show confidence in the top line number as well, confidence that they have a solid revenue stream and a sales pipeline, and when they expect those will be converted to customers. They 'allude' to it by holding onto the statements of moving to profit in FY2017, but of course there is no evidence to support that.

    At the heart of it is where it all started. OHE have pitiful reporting, leading up to the IPO and subsequently. No investor could have any confidence in OHE's future until they realise that 'disclosure' means exactly that! Disclose the numbers, front up to the shareholders with the facts, all the facts, and stop obfuscating the truth.
    BAA

  9. #639
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Posts
    267

    Default

    10% revenue growth and next year coud be profitable.

  10. #640
    Give a Dog a Bone...
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    6,988

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    I'd say you're almost certainly correct that now OHE is at the behest of their bank that the bank said strip out some costs!

    It won't be enough in Toto though, to put the company back on a solid footing. If we assume an average of $100k salaries which isn't unreasonable in the IT sector, then 10% of 1200 staff = $12m of savings. It's a good start, but not enough.

    OHE need to show confidence in the top line number as well, confidence that they have a solid revenue stream and a sales pipeline, and when they expect those will be converted to customers. They 'allude' to it by holding onto the statements of moving to profit in FY2017, but of course there is no evidence to support that.

    At the heart of it is where it all started. OHE have pitiful reporting, leading up to the IPO and subsequently. No investor could have any confidence in OHE's future until they realise that 'disclosure' means exactly that! Disclose the numbers, front up to the shareholders with the facts, all the facts, and stop obfuscating the truth.
    99.99% chance the bank instructed him to do it and agree 100% with the rest of your post too.
    The question investors need to ask themselves is why does it most probably take an external party to give the CEO / major shareholder / directors prudent management instructions that are so obvious to "blind freddy" ? If management and directors have to rely on outside influence to tell them how to run the company in a prudent manner why would one trust them to manage your capital carefully going forward from here ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 23-04-2017 at 12:00 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  11. #641
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,719

    Default

    Fall is relentless and with a C R on everyones mind its no wonder, where is the bottom better question what is the enterprize value ?

  12. #642
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Posts
    267

    Default

    CR? Havnt they got a 50million loan facility?

  13. #643
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,719

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Carpenterjoe View Post
    CR? Havnt they got a 50million loan facility?
    I think so, but Im thinking that their banker ( ASB ) may want more S Hers equity especially as they have/had approx. between $2+ & $6 mil left at the last bus update!

  14. #644
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Posts
    267

    Default

    Suppose it will depend on terms ect. Definitely keeping an eye on this one and buying one or two. Seems like some good value for the brave.

  15. #645
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,719

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Carpenterjoe View Post
    Suppose it will depend on terms ect. Definitely keeping an eye on this one and buying one or two. Seems like some good value for the brave.
    Definitely sub $1.00

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •