Orion Health

[Lola]

Glad to see people are starting to wake up to this one. A capital raise looking likely from a quick gander at those numbers, not that they could forecast that, they couldn't (or wouldn't) provide a forecast on IPO day.

Are we looking at the next Wynyard here?

DISC: Never held.

I believe this was a company very highly rated by that man C Lee from Kapiti . He had dinner once with the CEO I think.

[winner69]

Wouldn't want to repeat H1 cash burn of $33m with only $24m in the bank would they

[KiwiGekko]

I believe this was a company very highly rated by that man C Lee from Kapiti .

It looks like you are correct. A quick Google shows he referred to Orion's CEO as a Genius!

[Baa_Baa]

Wouldn't want to repeat H1 cash burn of $33m with only $24m in the bank would they

Doesn't look too good does it, this statement is a worry, very ambiguous:

"Cash balances at 30 September stand at $24m. The net cash outflow for the period of $33m reflects the Operating Loss of $17m and an abnormally large movement in working capital items. The outlook for continuing revenue growth and improved EBIT is such that we believe that the company has sufficient cash and facilities to execute its strategy until profit is generated, which we expect to occur in FY2018."

- loss therefore has a $16m "abnormally large movement in working capital items" (not specified).

and
- sufficient cash and facilities (unspecified)

- barely any revenue growth but "profitable in FY2018" (unspecified).

Very vague, rather disconcerting. Not to mention the acknowledgement of US market 'challenges' and yet it is the largest most critical market to OHE.

No wonder the market is uncertain and giving the SP a right royal hiding today. Down 2/3rd's from IPO. Not a good look, not good at all.

[Lola]

It looks like you are correct. A quick Google shows he referred to Orion's CEO as a Genius!

Churchill WAS a genius, but a poor investor.

[blobbles]

Which may also beg the question, why did they IPO with such a high SP? $5.70 wasn't it? That's a huge market cap for a company making massive losses without a large cash reserve... Jeez, Xero got to that sort of market cap only after Peter Thiel threw another $50m of his own money into it (with others).

Disappointing result in terms of growth, basically flat. I think people are especially wary now after WYN...

[whatsup]

Once OHE is cash flow positive this company will spit out cash by the truck load, the trick is when will that happen, even if there is a need for more cash in the market they are which is massive they should make it, once that happens they will attract many suitors from the U S, but how long will that take?

[winner69]

Baabaa - that working capital movement is mainly made up of $8.7m increase in trade receivables and a $14.2m decrease in revenue in advance. (Note 12 in Interim Accounts)

[Baa_Baa]

Baabaa - that working capital movement is mainly made up of $8.7m increase in trade receivables and a $14.2m decrease in revenue in advance. (Note 12 in Interim Accounts)

Yes thanks, been going through the details and as you say it is specified in the notes, but not in detail, fortunately it's "abnormal" so won't happen again, or would that be 'one-off'? Going to be a long wait for shareholders until FY results in March, which presumably won't be announced until April/May sometime.

I feel for shareholders, this whole OHE thing got off to a dubious start with the IPO pricing and it's been a nightmare since then. Hope it pulls out of the nosedive soon, albeit at some point it will appear to be a bargain buy for those who can assume the (small?) risk that it won't go belly-up.

Just another blow to confidence in the NZX listed Tech sector. Not fatal so far, fortunately.

[Baa_Baa]

Yes, this is (depending on the perspective) either a very ugly (for holders) or a fascinating chart (for everybody else). I guess from a technical perspective there might be a chance for a bounce at the 250 mark, but without positive news I don't see that coming.

From a fundamental point of view - I guess they are not (yet) as screwed as WYN (they do have some revenue worthwhile mentioning - but their expenses keep being higher than their income), but in a way comparable. If they manage to close some of the big contracts in the US they are hoping for, than their share price will move into the stratosphere. However - if they don't, than they will be for a long time in loss making territory with future capital risings in view.

How likely is an "America First" Trump administration to put big bucks into a small New Zealand Software company? How likely is an administration which puts the Rich first to put money into a public health system (which would benefit from OHE software)?

You tell me, but I certainly don't expect any good news from the East Island anytime soon.

Maybe they should book the president suite in the Trump tower and fool a bit with the president elect in his hotel spa around ... this might materially improve their chances?

Well BP, those technicals amounted to nothing (I'm throwing that chart in the bin, there's nothing useful that it can say down here after today) and the market says the news is not good news. Kind of ironic that on the very next trading day after your post, the technical support $2.45 failed bigtime on the HY report news and -45 cents or -18% later the SP is at $2.05. Very unsettling, now the long wait for good news, really really good news.