Orion Health

[BlackPeter]

In my view BP the growth simply isn't there like DIL or XRO. Remember this was a company growing at 30% per annum and doing so very profitably. To now grow at below 10% and incur substantial losses, (sure they could trim back R&D but growth might tank if they did) is a completely different situation to where this previously promising company was at.

Lately you'be been talking a fair bit about not owning shares in companies that are in a downtrend. You might like to have a look at the chart mate Keep those stops real tight !

If and that's a big "if" they ever break through to the upside of the 100 day MA I would think that's a better time to have a punt on this pup.

Interestingly, even using a really simple TA technique like waiting for a 3 day confirmed break of the 100 day moving average would have got investors out at slightly more than $4.40 in August 2016.

I guess most trend changes start with a small signals, but clearly it didn't work out this time. I hoped at least for a nice dead cat bounce, but it appears punters are just too desperate to get rid of this stock. SP hit this morning my stop - over and out!

So yes Roger, you have been right - and I count myself lucky in having lost only 7 cents per share ... I am sure, most of the OHE sellers these days are worse off.

[Lola]

I guess most trend changes start with a small signals, but clearly it didn't work out this time. I hoped at least for a nice dead cat bounce, but it appears punters are just too desperate to get rid of this stock. SP hit this morning my stop - over and out!

So yes Roger, you have been right - and I count myself lucky in having lost only 7 cents per share ... I am sure, most of the OHE sellers these days are worse off.

Surely Chris wouldn't have sold unless hes switched to third tier real estate in Dixon St

OHE oversold but probably going lower for a while. Getting off lightly in the blog world compared to DIL at the same stage.

[Beagle]

I guess most trend changes start with a small signals, but clearly it didn't work out this time. I hoped at least for a nice dead cat bounce, but it appears punters are just too desperate to get rid of this stock. SP hit this morning my stop - over and out!

So yes Roger, you have been right - and I count myself lucky in having lost only 7 cents per share ... I am sure, most of the OHE sellers these days are worse off.

Its good your cutting losses and counting your blessings BP...plenty more pain coming for holders I reckon.

[Balance]

Its good your cutting losses and counting your blessings BP...plenty more pain coming for holders I reckon.

Hard to believe the shares were over $5.00 just 5 months ago.

Sobering.

[Lola]

thanks. I'm starting to think this might be a truly epic fail.

so prophetic!!

[BlackPeter]

Hard to believe the shares were over $5.00 just 5 months ago.

Sobering.

It is ... and todays depth looks ... hmm - lets say interesting. No resistance left - and half of the remaining orders are at 40 cents.

Capitulation day looming?

So - what do people think this company actually might be worth? On the plus side: They actually do have revenue ($212m in FY2016) and growth (CAGR around 20%) worthwhile talking about. P/S is 1.3 and their losses might have bottomed out.

On the minus side: They did put a lot (not all) of their eggs into the US basket ... and the new strong man over their (villain of the year, I hear) might not be supportive of their business. Their products would be good for a public health system and they are an alien company. Two four letter words in the current US of A.

So - if we discount the US business and assume they can cut their cost to accommodate just the rest - what is the residual value of this company?

Interesting times ...

[Beagle]

so prophetic!!

You're welcome...if only picking winners was this easy !

It is ... and todays depth looks ... hmm - lets say interesting. No resistance left - and half of the remaining orders are at 40 cents.

Capitulation day looming?

...

What's it worth ? Really tough question to answer in my opinion so I won't try. It once grew at a fantastic rate and there's some fine revenue streams there and there's no question what they're trying to do is a worthwhile business endeavour, provided it can be run profitably. The key question now is what confidence can the market have that this company can be run profitably in the long run ?
Are their going concern considerations ?...my old fashioned steam powered abacas tells me that if a company doesn't have sufficient working capital to run for at least 12 months then there are indeed going concern questions.
Can the CEO and major shareholder be relied upon to run the company in the best interests of shareholders or is the end game here to take it private again and simply use the public as a funding mechanism for the research and development and bleed them dry ? I know this is a highly controversial question to ask but what does it say about the promotors that they had the nerve to bring this company public without a profit forecast in the first place ?
Do good listed commercial disciplines really exist ?
Even if they do,does the market have sufficient remaining confidence in this company and its directors such that a capital raise at any price could be successful ?
I am not at all surprised that the market is experiencing a real confidence crisis. Only the very brave would be buying in such a confirmed steep downtrend.
There is potentially some value there but where I couldn't say so this stock which is best described as "highly speculative" in my opinion could be worth a punt at a much lower price once a 3 day confirmed break is established through the upside on the 100 day moving average.

[percy]

We are very lucky to have such a wide choice of unprofitable companies to throw our money at.
ERD,eps -3.24cents,market cap $103,020,079
IKE,eps -24.39 cents,market cap $24,422,946
OHE,eps -28.41 cents market cap $263,797,347
PEB,eps -5.29 cents,market cap $206,156,427
PLX ,eps -2.28 cents,market cap $17,823,100
PPH,eps -12.46 cents,market cap $370.569,582
SLI,eps -0.9 cents,market cap,$29,262,584
WDT,eps -0.54 cents,market cap $38,227,868
XRO,eps -59.93 cents.market cap $2,407,022,748.
Approx $3.5 billion ???


Disc.Hold a small parcel of IKE .And yes I make the odd mistake too.!!lol.

[Beagle]

Hard to believe the shares were over $5.00 just 5 months ago.

Sobering.

Sure is mate. You'd rarely see a more compelling example of why technical analysis MUST be a part of every investors toolkit.

Very "lucky" indeed Percy. Thanks for the 2017 "pup" list. Any stock making large losses but promising future growth should be treated with caution and a fairly large dose of scepticism IMO.

[Balance]

Can the CEO and major shareholder be relied upon to run the company in the best interests of shareholders or is the end game here to take it private again and simply use the public as a funding mechanism for the research and development and bleed them dry ? I know this is a highly controversial question to ask but what does it say about the promotors that they had the nerve to bring this company public without a profit forecast in the first place ?

I believe you have hit the nail on the head, mate. It is all coming down to what is the real motivation and drive behind the CEO and founder.

You certainly gave enough and plenty of warnings to all in the heady days leading to its IPO.

Quote Originally Posted by Balance (29 October 2014)
Spoke with an investment banker who has dealt with Orion Health before. Arrogant and unrealistic are his comments.

Amen.
Unfortunately proving to be true for those who were prepared to accept this IPO and subscribe for shares without forecasts.