Orion Health

[Lola]

Posted 13 December 2016 when SP was $2.00.

Many posts before that in which I was overtly critical of the promotors and management for having the gall to being this to the market without any financial projections, (shows disrespect to good financial disciplines and conventional processes in my opinion).
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11349437

Disc: Fur fully intact and well groomed as I didn't go anywhere near this one at any stage.

In my opinion, there's PLENTY more potential for hapless shareholders to get very badly burned with this mutt but best wishes and good luck to all holders, as I feel you'll need it.

I totally agree
How can it be explained by the organisations that give awards to the so called best brokers in the land that First NZ gets often to be number one and Craigs number two yet lemons get hoisted on poor old investors like this one quite often?
All the new compliance nonsense and Black Tie Dinner award nights won't change anything
Best research has always been and will always be good old fashioned wink of an eye

[Balance]

October 2014 Spoke with an investment banker who has dealt with Orion Health before. Arrogant and unrealistic are his comments.

Amen.

Nothing has changed.

[Baa_Baa]

I totally agree
How can it be explained by the organisations that give awards to the so called best brokers in the land that First NZ gets often to be number one and Craigs number two yet lemons get hoisted on poor old investors like this one quite often?
All the new compliance nonsense and Black Tie Dinner award nights won't change anything
Best research has always been and will always be good old fashioned wink of an eye

Perhaps you're right Lola, but few are connected to the wink and a nod! OHE is a despicable example of listing largess and their promoters should be disgraced and ashamed of themselves. What goes round comes round and surely they will suffer incredulity at any future tech (or other) listings on the back of this massive 70+% decline in OHE.

That said, OHE haven't done themselves any favours either. It seems they continue to struggle to adapt from the typical IT company 'sales speak' optimism to public listing where the facts tends to catch up with the reality. This emperor has achieved outstanding successes in NZ and overseas but if they can't cash flow the business, they will have no clothes.

If OHE survive the decline into cashflow illiquidity, debt, delayed sales and receivables, they could be an amazing success for shareholders who get in at the bottom. Sadly it seems that the decline towards insolvency currently seems resolute, however one mustn't underestimate the resolve to make this company a success.

Patience. Who knows, this could eventually turn into the buy of the decade. On the other hand it's looking more and more grim.

[Lola]

Perhaps you're right Lola, but few are connected to the wink and a nod! OHE is a despicable example of listing largess and their promoters should be disgraced and ashamed of themselves. What goes round comes round and surely they will suffer incredulity at any future tech (or other) listings on the back of this massive 70+% decline in OHE.

That said, OHE haven't done themselves any favours either. It seems they continue to struggle to adapt from the typical IT company 'sales speak' optimism to public listing where the facts tends to catch up with the reality. This emperor has achieved outstanding successes in NZ and overseas but if they can't cash flow the business, they will have no clothes.

If OHE survive the decline into cashflow illiquidity, debt, delayed sales and receivables, they could be an amazing success for shareholders who get in at the bottom. Sadly it seems that the decline towards insolvency currently seems resolute, however one mustn't underestimate the resolve to make this company a success.

Patience. Who knows, this could eventually turn into the buy of the decade. On the other hand it's looking more and more grim.

This is Feltex 2 so far
Same players almost
At least the promoter can afford to buy it all back some time
At least that's what I take from his "resolve" expression

[macduffy]

Ironic, isn't it! We lament the fact that promising NZ technology/IT companies don't come to listing, or the few that do, do so on the ASX and not the NZX more often than not - yet we forget that this is a highly risky area when failures occur. Doesn't excuse over-selling by promoters of course but we have to take some responsibility for our actions if we invest in this sector and accept the risks involved.

Disc: Not holding.

[Kay]

Mr trump brings uncertainty...as does the quiet nature of ohe!

I have taken to monitoring their recruitment website.Typically 30-40 vacancies ongoing for the last few months in a fair few locations. But not very many in the USA. Maybe not overly significant.

The share price has been loitering consistently at 200 for long enough to start to bore me. Wouldn't say no to a snippet of info if ohe have any to donate!

Perhaps not the best idea to tempt fate!

[moimoi]

If the profitability forecast for 2018 is still good, as confirmed by the company today, and the ASB $40m working capital facility(s) are still good, as confirmed by the company today, why the need to bring in a minority shareholder to dilute shareholders...?

[KiwiGekko]

If the profitability forecast for 2018 is still good, as confirmed by the company today, and the ASB $40m working capital facility(s) are still good, as confirmed by the company today, why the need to bring in a minority shareholder to dilute shareholders...?

If their forecast is good it'll be the first forecast OHE's management have got right since IPO, especially given they weren't willing to give one initially. With that track record perhaps they have a reduced appetite for risk? Possible, but given the charts trajectory why stop now?

Frankly I wouldn't believe a single thing coming out of this company until they wake up, start making the hard decisions and voluntarily cut their expenses. The first place they could look would be making non-performing teams redundant. I strongly doubt they will though as it was clear to me and a few other outsiders this needed to happen over 6 months ago.

DISC: Never Held.

[Balance]

Frankly I wouldn't believe a single thing coming out of this company until they wake up, start making the hard decisions and voluntarily cut their expenses. The first place they could look would be making non-performing teams redundant. I strongly doubt they will though as it was clear to me and a few other outsiders this needed to happen over 6 months ago.

DISC: Never Held.

You make a very good and pertinent point. OHE decided to expand aggressively - using the $125m raised via the IPO in Dec 2014.

Staff numbers were built up to increase R&D and software development (solutions), pursue sales opportunities to leverage off earlier successes. Makes good sense.

Issue is that OHE has not been able to close sales in recent times after huge R&D spend ($62m alone in F2016!) - and the cash has run out. $125m is a lot of cash to burn over a 2 year period. 9% increase in revenues in interim F17 is pathetically low after that kind of R&D spend and cash burn.

Unlike Wynward however, I believe OHE has significant value still as it has recurring revenue and a customer base. What that value is will be determined by the 'new' investors if they come onboard. $265m market cap looks rich at present as the company is unquestionably in financial distress.

A pro-rata rights issue will be the most equitable way to recapitalize the company, with full disclosure by the company on its future path to be measured by realistic milestones.

[Schrodinger]

Proceed with caution here. The company will be expcted to layoff staff (200?) with the blessing of the board to get cash burn under control and not upset the ASB. That should save $20M a year. I assume the banks will insist on getting the company cashflow positive/neutral. Probably the new shareholders if the raise is done. I think the bank will want a buffer on their $40M facility so layoffs are inevtiable.

What will be really interesting is who decides to put capital in and with what conditions. Ian will be diluting at very unfavourable terms. Will the bank keep its $40M on tap with another outside investor tipping in? This might be crucial as the raise is going to be a massive downround.

With further thought this again highlights the awful governance in software companies. The board should of acted 6 months ago as mentioned by another poster. They must have been 99% sure the contracts were a done deal. Incompetence or ignorance?