winner, have another look. Your window is too small. I said the uptrend starts somewhere between July and October, NOT that it completes during this timeframe.
The 2015 uptrend only started in October and finished in December. Just to make the lot full - there are as well 2014 numbers (uptrend September to November) ...
MPG spring uptrends:
2014 September (174) to November (200)
2015 October (130) to December (172) - and it continued after a short dip through to February
2016 June (170) to September (225) - and it stayed through to early December on this level
All data taken from the trend chart (i.e. give or take a couple of days / cents)
... and consistent with the seasonal uptake of building permits during this time (you might remember this discussion).
Maybe my glasses are foggy but w69s chart (to me) demonstrates a lack of trend.
The platue and down trend since the 40% deposit scenario for investors was tabled may have jinxed the theory...
winner, have another look. Your window is too small. I said the uptrend starts somewhere between July and October, NOT that it completes during this timeframe.
The 2015 uptrend only started in October and finished in December. Just to make the lot full - there are as well 2014 numbers (uptrend September to November) ...
MPG spring uptrends:
2014 September (174) to November (200)
2015 October (130) to December (172) - and it continued after a short dip through to February
2016 June (170) to September (225) - and it stayed through to early December on this level
All data taken from the trend chart (i.e. give or take a couple of days / cents)
... and consistent with the seasonal uptake of building permits during this time (you might remember this discussion).
Sorry for not reading your post properly - my bad
I think we talk to different purposes anyway, Maybe we can agree that the MPG has some cyclical attributes with a random seasonal overlay.
I think the start of the up trends you mentioned are more of MPG / market doing than perceived seasonal impacts of building consents. The 2015 up trend started after a please explain and about the time of the AGM which may have given punters some comfort while the 2016 up trend started post annual results which weren't too bad.
Anyway interesting to see where the share price goes from here ...one thing though it seems mid 130s is about as it will go but question is how high might it go over time.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Maybe my glasses are foggy but w69s chart (to me) demonstrates a lack of trend.
The platue and down trend since the 40% deposit scenario for investors was tabled may have jinxed the theory...
That 40% has stalled the property market
What happened when tax changes re property were introduced in 2010 might happen again - consents and house sales took a dive the following year ....as per chart below
As such consents might be weak for the rest of this year and early 2018 (not so good for MPG in the short term)
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Fair point. This is a risk and certainly one of the factors overlaying the annual cycle. Just curious how the government will deal with a dropping build rate (already now ways below where we would need it) in times of a housing crisis.
However - this is a discussion for a different thread.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
Still trades cum a 4 cent dividend until Wednesday 5 July next week. Dividend hounds might be considering their position in the queue
Disc: Doubled down at $1.35 last Friday.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
MPG hasn't been around long enough, personally I would not use the last 2 years of price movements ( great macros behind building sector to gain immense earnings growth ) as a base for predicting how the coming year plays out with the current uncertainty around the industry.
I would buy in the 120s again, would like a damn forecast though.
MPG hasn't been around long enough, personally I would not use the last 2 years of price movements ( great macros behind building sector to gain immense earnings growth ) as a base for predicting how the coming year plays out with the current uncertainty around the industry.
I would buy in the 120s again, would like a damn forecast though.
Not held anymore, got out on results day.
Agree - looking just 2 years back would be a bit thin. However if you go 6 years back (basically to the start of their pro forma reports for their listing), than they have today a (6yr) CAGR of 13.5% ... and if you add the forward predictions the (9yr-) CAGR is still above 10.5%. Backward PE (the same 6 years back) is 18 - and forward PE 10.7; Looks like a solidly growing company in an industry with lots of potential to me ... but each to their own.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
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