OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[winner69]

Hey Mav …. RBNZ has the number of house sales data which they source from Core Logic …but it always seem to be a quarter behind.

In a spreadsheet as well
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/...cators/housing

[Maverick]

Hey Mav …. RBNZ has the number of house sales data which they source from Core Logic …but it always seem to be a quarter behind.

In a spreadsheet as well
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/...cators/housing

Thanks winner.
Yes , having it miss out Q1-24 isn't too helpful here especially as that is the key to how sales might have dropped for OCA HY2 and MIGHT offer some justification for low OCA new sales numbers . From your link , I think the jump in Q4 -23 up from Q2 and Q3 -23 is fairly benign so it looks like the 8% yoy sales is about right (after all why wouldn't it be) .

You might be interested in this ...I've continue to focus on how these PAC and new cares suite sales corelate with each other .
My motive is that should new cares suite sales be low then new apartment sales just arn`t as bad one would assume. Given we were told a total of these sold were 69.( what are the chances of that winner69 )

The undeniable rise in PAC fees over the years clearly says PAC has become a growing way of life for OCA as opposed to a pure ORA care suite model. The numbers are saying for years , about 20-25% of all care suite resales and new sales are now PAC.

This completely puts to bed any fear that large numbers of unsold cares suites are sitting around empty. A PAC and DMF generate the same daily return (10% p/a) just PAC doesn't come with the ORA capital to sit in OCAs bank account/debt.

I`m trying to work out what this 2HY cares suites new sales might be of that 69.....This is my observations and math ....
a. 20-25% ratio of available new care stock is going to PAC rather than be a new sale.( based on last 3 years of data) .
b. They only had 126 empty ones to sell at beginning of 2HY24,
c. Therefore , these remaining 100 c/s left for ORA sale, they should be selling down over 2.5 years ( being needs based so has always taken that long).

That leaves potential new sales from opening stock for 2hy24 of only 20.

Then add new deliveries for 2hy24 stock which will also be selling on top of these 20...
A. Blenheim care suites (55) got delivered very late so sales might be 5 or so ( big guess here)
b. Newly delivered c/s at Helier (32) will never be "sold" as such , just weekly fees .

It is quite possible total new care suite sales could as low as 25-30 and that would still be healthy.

that leaves scope to have new apartment sales of c. 40-45.

If this actually works out then apartment HY2 new sales will be same or slightly greater than HY1.

The result could be far better and have far better future connotations than the disaster this total 69 apartment / cares suite figure first initially looked like in a pro-rata way.

I'm not stating this will all be true and certainly waiting to see it first ...but the numbers worked from years of PAC growth data is suggests this is actually happening.

OCA seem to be now accepting PAC as part of their repertoire rather than a short term , diminishing , gap filler. There seems a clear consistency in their data of PAC growth.

There's really no reason to have put all this effort in when I can just go fishing for a few weeks for us to be told the result but should these things play out as I'm now think I'm seeing then it should change the way we all see care suits in ORA and PAC ( therefore empty units) in OCAs portfolio.

Just maybe OCA can start reporting how many PACs are in play from here on. There's so much confusion and mystery over this area.

[Louloubell]

There are many (too many) things in life I don't understand. One if these is the poor communication from companies to the owners of the business. Poor communication creates uncertainty and allows rumours and misinformation to flourish. Maybe something for the new CEO to consider.

[Daytr]

There are many (too many) things in life I don't understand. One if these is the poor communication from companies to the owners of the business. Poor communication creates uncertainty and allows rumours and misinformation to flourish. Maybe something for the new CEO to consider.

Spot on.
And too many times poor communication coincides with poor performance.
Companies are all too happy share the positives but not the negatives.
Otherwise called spruiking.

[Baa_Baa]

Underlining when .....are you saying now is not the when?

When it bounces off a double bottom? Oh wait. Short term trade punt with tight stops, for those inclined.