OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Rawz]

Glad you’re back SR, thought you had forsaken us.

Have you had a look at TWR?

[mike2020]

OCA without the Sailor is like Gotham without Batman. The streets are safe tonight people.

[SailorRob]

Glad you’re back SR, thought you had forsaken us.

Have you had a look at TWR?

Briefly, just a leveraged bond portfolio and I have no idea about the underwriting. Selling bits of paper with promises written on them for hard cash today can be an extremely alluring business but can also lead to a lot of folly.

At some price it would obviously be interesting but when I have Markel and Berkshire on offer with the ability to invest float into equities and operating businesses and some serious fire power on the underwriting side, it's hard to get interested in other insurance companies. I did own Allstate and PGR for a while until they went up too much.

Their balance sheet would be simple to analyse and predict returns from the investing side and then just multiply the leverage to equity but what really matters is the promises they have made, would take weeks to figure it out if you could even, whats lurking out there that could take a bite out of your equity.

Ultimately I'd say it comes down to trust in management, do they have a 20 year plus track record in conservative underwriting.

If you can tell me what their underwriting will be like over the next few years, give me an average combined ratio, and premium volume I can tell you what TWR is worth. Would prob want to know bond portfolio duration but I can find that.

Banks go illiquid before they go insolvent and insurance companies go insolvent before they go illiquid. Unless they are AIG in the GFC.

Gotta be bloody careful in financials.