OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[777]

75c and end of trading.

[Beagle]

Unbelievably surprised is probably the two words that best summarise it for me... the best value retirement stock by a blue mile even if it does have lower underlying growth than the likes of SUM... quite possibly one of the cheapest stocks in all of the NZX.
Wouldn't be to surprised to see the stock track up over the coming days as people put a 'more realistic' value on it

You actually believe their forecast ? Don't you think its a little odd they'd bring this to market so close to their end of year for 31 May 2017 ? Guess why ? So they can say, look, we got that forecast right. It's the 40% growth in underlying earnings for FY18 that I for one am taking with a grain of salt. Call me a hardened cynic if you like, I don't honestly care but they've been trying for years to float this thing and if they hadn't of forecast 40% growth nobody would have been interested.
Huge vested interest to make that FY18 growth forecast ! Tegal or Feltex Mk2 in my opinion.

[sb9]

75c and end of trading.

Yes, might be the blooper of the year. Never a good time to list in month of May, as per famous saying goes "Sell in May and Go Away" .

[bull....]

Unbelievably surprised is probably the two words that best summarise it for me... the best value retirement stock by a blue mile even if it does have lower underlying growth than the likes of SUM... quite possibly one of the cheapest stocks in all of the NZX.
Wouldn't be to surprised to see the stock track up over the coming days as people put a 'more realistic' value on it

I thought it was pretty expensive at 80c anyway it was a good result for maquarie selling as they had been trying for a while.

[sb9]

I thought it was pretty expensive at 80c anyway it was a good result for maquarie selling as they had been trying for a while.

Will be interesting to see what happens when it start to trade on ASX soon...

[hardt]

Flat growth for FY2017 and *forecast* growth of 40% for FY2018... sounds nice, hope they can pull that off.

Will wait for the IPO buzz to die down before putting any money down for the long run.

[couta1]

Flat growth for FY2017 and *forecast* growth of 40% for FY2018... sounds nice, hope they can pull that off.

Will wait for the IPO buzz to die down before putting any money down for the long run.

Growth of 40% for FY2018, yeah right, it ain't going to happen.

[Joshuatree]

Sounds very bullish, however they did double their gross profit last year compared to the year before.

What have you heard since to change your opinion so strongly.Definitely not a fact as you make it sound.

[couta1]

What have you heard since to change your opinion so strongly.Definitely not a fact as you make it sound.

Huge effort required to maintain wages to revenue ratio below the ideal percentile, especially since extra money to pay Nurses and other staff to line up with caregivers increase will squeeze their profits further. Developing their sites will help in the future but not over the next year.

[trader_jackson]

You actually believe their forecast ? Don't you think its a little odd they'd bring this to market so close to their end of year for 31 May 2017 ? Guess why ? So they can say, look, we got that forecast right. It's the 40% growth in underlying earnings for FY18 that I for one am taking with a grain of salt. Call me a hardened cynic if you like, I don't honestly care but they've been trying for years to float this thing and if they hadn't of forecast 40% growth nobody would have been interested.
Huge vested interest to make that FY18 growth forecast ! Tegal or Feltex Mk2 in my opinion.

When you look at Tegal or Feltex, they had a few problems, but mainly: the market they were in had 'questionable' dynamics, and their product was very much the same as other products they were directly competiting against. (I won't bother talking about debt levels, or the fact they were a quick flip PE)

OCA is different.

Their villages are high quality, they have great locations, and the market around them is favorable... yet like ARV, everybody is sceptical if they can make it work. I agree with part of this scepticism, there are somepoints I don't 'like' either.

I am not sure it is good to get harp on about how impossible this 40% growth forecast... because before this growth, they forecast negative growth, for good reasons as well. (I won't bother going into how ARV beat both IPO forecast profit, and had triple digit growth from FY15 to FY16)

OCA are currently trading at just 14.7 Underlying NPAT, with FY18 underlying NPAT of just 9.6... even if they had no growth and missed their forecasts by miles, they are still the cheapest in the sector today, and paying a dividend well above a bank term deposit rate.