OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[bull....]

OCA down 6c from 67c last Tuesday. Who doesn't like a good bit of volatility

Going to get in another buy order asap.

rich studend eh
how much pocket money you spending each time

[ValueNZ]

rich studend eh
how much pocket money you spending each time

Not pocket money lol, I have a part time job whilst studying at uni.

1k each transaction usually.

[mistaTea]

Not pocket money lol, I have a part time job whilst studying at uni.

1k each transaction usually.

What platform are you using? What are the fees?

[ValueNZ]

What platform are you using? What are the fees?

ASB securities for NZX purchases (so only OCA). They are $15 for $1000, $30 over $1000 but less than $10000, and 0.3% for anything above that. Yes, that's more generally more expensive than Sharesies but I wanted to be able to participate in the DRP program. ASB is probably a bit cheaper than Jarden Direct for me (only spending 1k each time), but Jarden Direct is cheaper for anyone making decent sized trades.

I use Interactive Brokers for everything else. Nothing is cheaper than IBKR I think.

Edit:

Screen Shot 2024-04-15 at 4.49.34 PM.jpg

[mistaTea]

ASB securities for NZX purchases (so only OCA). They are $15 for 1000, $30 over 1000 but less than 10000, and 0.3% for anything above that. Yes, that's more generally more expensive than Sharesies but I wanted to be able to participate in the DRP program. ASB is probably a bit cheaper than Jarden Direct for me (only spending 1k each time), but Jarden Direct is cheaper for anyone making decent sized trades.

I use Interactive Brokers for everything else. Nothing is cheaper than IBKR I think.

Edit:

Screen Shot 2024-04-15 at 4.49.34 PM.jpg

That’s still 1.5% a pop. Trying to beat the indexes by 1.5% long term will be hard. Most professionals can’t do it.

As Bogle would say, fees matter.

[mistaTea]

That’s still 1.5% a pop. Trying to beat the indexes by 1.5% long term will be hard. Most professionals can’t do it.

As Bogle would say, fees matter.

Yes IBKR is dirty cheap.

[ValueNZ]

That’s still 1.5% a pop. Trying to beat the indexes by 1.5% long term will be hard. Most professionals can’t do it.

As Bogle would say, fees matter.

Very true. I need to consider whether I need to save up more each time (say 5-10k) and risk having the share price run upward, or continue what I'm doing. Cheers.

[thegreatestben]

I wouldn't sweat it too much ValueNZ, at your age I was busy buying carparts and motorcycles and haven't really got anything show for it than memories. I hope you keep making posts at 25, 30, 35 years of age etc, not to rub peoples faces in it but showing that you don't have get it perfect, you just have to stick to it and start as early as possible.

[Ferg]

Looking at the numbers released today, here are the volumes per half year (HY) and the Year on Year % change (YoY%):

Capture - Copy.JPG

In summary H1 was up 13%, H2 was up 19% and the full year is up 16%. 2 minor red flags being the relatively low number of new sales in H2 at 69 (up 2 on last year) and the 182 new units developed in FY24 versus 153 new sales. This points to more stock build for new units. Hard to say for the resales stocks given we don't know the number of departures.

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bars brief review

Oceania Healthcare's (OCA) FY24 sales update was below our expectations. 2H24 sales softened from a solid 1H24 and is illustrative of the current subdued housing market. While recent commentary on its ‘The Helier’ development has been constructive, it appears the remainder of its new sales inventory is proving a tougher sell in the current housing market. But OCA continues to hold prices steady, and any uptick in sales activity is likely the positive catalyst the stock needs to sell its inventory and reduce debt. We still remain of the view that net debt should fall in FY25 and see this update more as a delay in its turnaround rather than a cancellation. Encouragingly, further non-core site sales at book value provide further support to its book valuation. OCA trades at ~0.45x book value and we retain our OUTPERFORM rating.

What's changed?

• Earnings: FY24/FY25/FY26 underlying earnings down -24%/-9%/-4% on slower new sales
• Target price: Decreased to NZ$0.95 (from NZ$1.02) due to lower annuity EBITDA and higher net debt.

New sales — solid sales at The Helier, softer elsewhere


OCA reported 2H24 new sales comfortably below our expectations, this is despite solid sales at its flagship The Helier development. In February OCA stated in news articles it had applications for/had sold 20 apartments and four care suites at The Helier, up from six in November (only one was settled in 1H24). These sales achieved in the six months since opening constitute ~25% of the apartments at The Helier. We believe this is a solid result, however, this implies OCA sold ~50 units from its other new sales inventory of ~330 units in 2H24. We view this as soft despite volatility in new sales period to period and the current subdued housing market backdrop.

Sales of non-core sites at book value encouraging


OCA's sale of three further non-core sites and a land parcel at book value is encouraging. This provides another data point to support the book valuations; with OCA trading at less than half its total book value we see valuation as attractive. It had seven sites held for sale at its 1H24 result and has sold four of these over the period (only one land parcel settled in 2H24). Of the NZ$40m in proceeds achieved, NZ$13m was received in 1H24, we estimate ~NZ$2m will be received in 2H24 and the remainder in 1H25.

Build rate guidance in-line, net debt higher on lower sales proceeds


OCA's FY24 deliveries and FY25 build rate guidance were in-line with our expectations and company commentary at its 1H24 result. As a result of the soft sales our net debt estimate increases and we move our expectation of peak net debt forward six months from 1H24 to FY24. Unsold new stock remains elevated for OCA and any pick up in housing market turnover will likely be the catalyst needed to sell through this and drive: (1) a reduction in net debt, (2) an uplift in earnings, and (3) a likely re-rating of the stock.