OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Joshuatree]

Cheers guys; can't remember what i said back then and not going to waste time looking either but i sold out of RYM too. OCA is the first retirement sector stock I've bought back into atp.

[Beagle]

Cheers guys; can't remember what i said back then and not going to waste time looking either but i sold out of RYM too. OCA is the first retirement sector stock I've bought back into atp.

Noticed when I dug that small sample of my posts out that I shared on the RYM thread that you also observed it had run too hard. At one point there is was on a historical underlying PE of 37 which was clearly too high.

[trader_jackson]

No "inadvertently" at all.RYM are nicely tucked in my "free" hold and forget portfolio.
SUM was also there,but recently having decided I did not hold enough in this sector, I added more SUM,as I like their model, which offcourse is based on RYM's.
I have never bothered with MET,as I think they have management issues, as well as being too concentrated in Auckland and Tauranga.
So I looked again at ARV and OCA ,and decided my original conculsions, that they were on the main part a hotchpotch of mainly small second rate villages were still valid.
Bit like buying a group of Pak'nSave supermarkets,rather than a whole lot of 4 square stores.

Not quit esure I agree with you comparing Pak'nSave supermarkets to ARV and OCA... My thinking:
MET is like the Pak'nSave, they are large, cram people in, may have some products needing fix ups, and not a great deal of all round offering - but it does the job.
RYM is like Foodtown... they are big, sort of sell everything and do everything (high and low quality), with average customer service.
Not really sure what SUM is like... they are sort of the pretty large, high growth, but also highest risk kind of outfit...
ARV and sort of OCA are like New Worlds... you may not think of them when you first think of groceries... they aren't the biggest, they aren't the newest, but often cater to an older generation, but have a high quality offering, and have great customer service.

[King1212]

Not quit esure I agree with you comparing Pak'nSave supermarkets to ARV and OCA... My thinking:
MET is like the Pak'nSave, they are large, cram people in, may have some products needing fix ups, and not a great deal of all round offering - but it does the job.
RYM is like Foodtown... they are big, sort of sell everything and do everything (high and low quality), with average customer service.
Not really sure what SUM is like... they are sort of the pretty large, high growth, but also highest risk kind of outfit...
ARV and sort of OCA are like New Worlds... you may not think of them when you first think of groceries... they aren't the biggest, they aren't the newest, but often cater to an older generation, but have a high quality offering, and have great customer service.

yes..can confirmed that..i visited Arvida village...the staffs are really friendly and happy staffs. Happy staffs offer good service to the residents.

[Beagle]

Must say this is an interesting one though. Without contradicting any of my earlier posts IF they can make their 40% EPS growth forecast for FY18 and get their development program underway and garner some genuine momentum with their outlook into FY19 then the forward PE going into FY19 will be very cheap and we should see a rerating over $1.00, which won't be too shabby a return for IPO investors. Time will tell. Does one believe their forecast or not ?

[King1212]

Must say this is an interesting one though. Without contradicting any of my earlier posts IF they can make their 40% EPS growth forecast for FY18 and get their development program underway and garner some genuine momentum with their outlook into FY19 then the forward PE going into FY19 will be very cheap and we should see a rerating over $1.00, which won't be too shabby a return for IPO investors. Time will tell. Does one believe their forecast or not ?

it is hard to believe the forecast Roger..Until the numbers out then the investors will convince..back then Arvida and Evolve are the same.......numbers out then the SP is stable rising...otherwise you would see the SP is a kind of speculation....

[Joshuatree]

from the prospectus

"approximately 30.4% of Oceania’s Pro forma Underlying EBITDA (pre corporate / other costs)is derived from the sale and re-sale of Units in FY2017F, increasing to approximately 43.8% inFY2018F "

Unless they are misinforming us why not?

[King1212]

Unless they are misinforming us why not?

the question is...can the achieve the sale and re-sale of the units???

[stoploss]

the question is...can the achieve the sale and re-sale of the units???

Must be hard to to be exact on re sales , sure they would know a rough % but generally hard to know when someone is going to die .....

[trader_jackson]

I think what we should be thinking about is, what if they move nowhere (0 growth) and nothing is done in the next year due to cost set backs of what ever you want to dream up... I think it is currently trading at a 15 pe... ie not expensive, possibly the cheapest in the sector... now this is a pretty unrealistic assumption of 0 growth, worst case instead of their being 40% growth (which I am confident they can achieve anyway), might 'only' be 20% growth... still trading very cheaply on a forward basis.

Conclusion: there is likely very limited downside, and alot of upside... all the other listed companies have a far worse 'ratio' of downside to upside than OCA, in my view.

OCA have some great villages, that are well positioned, so I am confident they can achieve their 40% growth.