Investing strategies and secular bear markets

[Hoop]

Winner, a little more dimension from me to reinforce your secular cycles and the events included within those secular cycles.

Attachment 328

Notes from my pathetic attempt in posting this chart

My chart is a 36 year time frame of the DOW from 1971 to 2008

the 1987 crash was in the 1982-2000 Secular Bull Market cycle.

Over the 36 year graph there are no broken long term uptrend lines

the scale is linear so the data are all out of perportion ... the 2000-02 crash looks bigger than the 1987 crash,which it was not true. The secular bear does not stand out with the linear graph neither. (It needs to be in Log scale)

Primary support at 12000 is very significant.

10,000 is significant as a trendline level

2 vertical lines between 1982 and 2000 show the secular bull market phase

Both 12000 and 10000 look realistically achievable in todays climate.

Secular Bull market ended in 2000 has to be replaced by Secular Bear.

Food for thought

What happens with a crash in a secular bear market phase? Does this alter the historic recovery phase after the crash event? Will the future recoveries such as intra bull market phases within the secular bear phase be shorter and stunted as was the 20003-2007 Bull?
Winner estimates 2014 as an average timeframe for the death of the secular bear...will this give us another opportunity of another intra bull market phase if so it will be short in duration. If no bull then we investors will have to manage a 7 year bear phase with short term raalies (corrections**) which is a long bear period historically averagewise.

Secular phases follow the same patterns as their shorter time frame phases counterparts......so in Bear phases follow the simple 5 down 3 up rule. (5 downturns to 3 corrections**)

** Please note: Obviously, many people deny (or not thinking) we are in a shorter term bear market phase (confirmed last week)...because....The use of the word "correction" in a bear market is a rally event
Thanks Winner for reminding me that we are in a secular bear phase, it will alter my investment strategy a little (assume to 14 year phase as reference)...such as not to too excited when a bull arrives within the next 1-3 years time as it may be stunted as well. This makes following TA, with its trendlines and buy/sells signals even more important over the rest of this secular bear period.

Liz: The NZX didn't respect that mid 3700 support closing at 3664