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What has happened since the post above??..
Very long term charting summary:...SUM has been in an up trending SD channel since listing over 5 years ago and the share price has gained over 300%
Medium term to the present summary...(refer to chart below)...A week after the 29th September chart posting (the chart above) SUM's TA wheels fell off triggering medium term sell signals (ema50 & 100 breaks adding to the list of breaks) The new bottom ($4.58) respected the MA200 and the subsequent rally in late November ended up being disappointing, triggering buy signals only to see investors getting burnt (Bull Trap). That rally was a sucker type and was quickly confirmed as such on the 8th December when the MA200 line broke indicating SUM had entered into a Technical bear market cycle...
Since the 8th of December we have seen another bottoming out at $4.45 and this latest rally looks to be wilting at the resistance conjunction point of $4.70 where the MA50 ema50 the new confirmed downtrend line and the $4.77 resistance line (not marked in the last chart) meet. Also there at $4.77 are the Ema 100 and MA200 lines..Conjunction resistances are powerful areas to break through and requres large buying pressures..The momentum (momentum indicator not shown but the MACD is shown) at present shows not much buying pressure to speak of and with the price at $4.61 the falling wedge threatening upward breakout (which is now due..Bulkowski) looks in doubt.
The falling Wedge pattern is a poor performing pattern but does have a 68% chance of an upward breakout...Being noted as a poor performer any upward breakout has to continue onwards and upwards to over $5.00 to alleviate sucker rally fears..even as a poor performing breakout the falling wedge pattern is still seen as a buy signal, however it is prudent to wait for further buy signals (The already triggered MACD may be a tad to quick) to help confirm such as the DMI which it seems will trigger about the same time as the EMA100 and MA200 resistance breakouts..If that happens, both medium and long term investors will enter around the same time which in theory should provide larger than "normal" buying pressure....
Until then we should wait so to minimise another downward risk.
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28th June 2017 post
Just after my last SUM post and chart (above)... Quote .. "...prudent to wait for further buy signals (The already triggered MACD may be a tad to quick) to help confirm such as the DMI which it seems will trigger about the same time as the EMA100 and MA200 resistance breakouts..If that happens, both medium and long term investors will enter around the same time which in theory should provide larger than "normal" buying pressure......It did happen.
UPDATE
Guidance announcement this morning promised very good and continuing growth for the rest of 2017..Mr Market liked it and the price gapped up to $4.83 +18c from last nights close.
SUM has been a bear for 9 months and has been a teddybear so far (cute and cuddly) but like all bears their temperment are unpredictable....Without looking at TA one would've thought the 18c gap up this morning would have see the end of the bear...but this is not the case yet..the gap up did push many TA indicator signals into the marginal buy area and a one lonely charted break (the 4.77 resistance line)..but it just indicates how broken this SUM chart was until today...
What now..???
The gap up today hasgot close to resistance areas and has stalled..SUM still has a lot of work to do..There are conjunction resistances MA's 50 100 200 a neckline and a ~$5.00 resistance (not drawn on chart)..Conjunction areas are hard to break as they need a lot of buyer pressure (momentum)..If SUM does break though the conjunction area, the drop in resistance + that buyer pressure rally will propel the price quickly upwards (physics) as was the case back in late January...
However that gap up today mean't that many of us on the sidelines have missed out..and buying in after this gap up and the price being so close to the conjunction area may not be wise due to the increased risk (rule of thumb: - buy near supports, not near resistances)..Second thing to remember is SUM is still a bear (downtrend and price still below EMA200)
The chart below has a lot of information and is rather cluttered..due to lack of space I have left out..S&R (resistance) line ~$5.00 .. another falling wedge pattern which broke downwards (late May) this time..The falling wedge is mixed up with tilted asymmetrical shaped H&S type pattern both giving a TP of ~$4.25...
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