NTL - New Talisman Mine - New board & Directors

[Charlie]

some buyers coming back into play at .018 and .019 .mmmmm

[sandi]

Does anyone know the equation to use to work out what a share price could reach?

[Chippie]

Basic variables are Gold price/oz - cost to extract gold/oz x oz's gold extracted per annum. Then divide by number of shares on issue and apply a P/E ratio for possibe share price.

Obviously a few scenarios for each variable to come up with possible price range.

I did this years ago and in my own opinion decided there was a reasonable chance of 10x current share price (equiv to current price) if they can get average gold production per annum. Then upside if production levels are higher.

But definatley best to do your own research and calculations. I am also sure there are some more qualified people on this thread how probably have some flash spreadsheets with all these scenarios.

[Baa_Baa]

Basic variables are Gold price/oz - cost to extract gold/oz x oz's gold extracted per annum. Then divide by number of shares on issue and apply a P/E ratio for possibe share price.

It might not be a flaw in the calculation, but it has forever been the unknown, the highlighted bit is, just a guess, because there hasn't been any gold extracted for long time, well before this listed 20+ years ago, let alone processed and sold.

NTL cannot realistically be valued as an investment, at this point in time, it is pure speculation at the far end of gold exploration, just find some gold and prove it.

The real value is and will be for some time, the cumulative shareholder losses which can be offset at points in time against earnings, if there are any.

It really has been and still is just a punt, but some glimmer of hope is that this management might just get some of the shiny stuff out of the ground. Even then you're not talking about valuation, as it's never been about valuation, it's always been about what the market thinks the SP should be.

[Daytr]

Does anyone know the equation to use to work out what a share price could reach?

Pretty much impossible as we don't know how much gold they will produce & we haven't had updated costs of production since the 'novel' mining approach has been announced.

In my view the cost of production should be pretty low if they can produce a 65% concentrate underground. I think the last estimate was around $750/toz but that figure is likely to be well out of date by now.

But even if they only produced 5,000 toz per annum at cash costs of NZD1500 they generate $7.5M of free cashflow less management costs etc.

They are never going to be a large scale producer but I would hope they can get to producing at least 4 times that so 20,000 toz pa generating $30M of free cashflow plus.

This is just my guesstimate on the outlook as there is very little detail from the company to make an informed assessment.

So as Baa Baa says it's a punt but with a low market cap it wouldn't take much production for the SP to go up multiples.
If they don't produce then you do your chips.

[whatsup]

It might not be a flaw in the calculation, but it has forever been the unknown, the highlighted bit is, just a guess, because there hasn't been any gold extracted for long time, well before this listed 20+ years ago, let alone processed and sold.

NTL cannot realistically be valued as an investment, at this point in time, it is pure speculation at the far end of gold exploration, just find some gold and prove it.

The real value is and will be for some time, the cumulative shareholder losses which can be offset at points in time against earnings, if there are any.

It really has been and still is just a punt, but some glimmer of hope is that this management might just get some of the shiny stuff out of the ground. Even then you're not talking about valuation, as it's never been about valuation, it's always been about what the market thinks the SP should be.

Ba-Ba, try the early 80's, Crusader Minerals.

[Landyman]

Little bit of enthusiasm on market, with SP going up - I hope and pray for a NZX speeding ticket at some point in the next 12 months - "please explain your price increase". Optimistic, but still a strong chance of doing my dough -DYOR

[Daytr]

Little bit of enthusiasm on market, with SP going up - I hope and pray for a NZX speeding ticket at some point in the next 12 months - "please explain your price increase". Optimistic, but still a strong chance of doing my dough -DYOR

Even better that there is no explanation required as the board announces production is full steam ahead at the lower quartile of production costs and will produce X thousands of ounces per annum.

But that would be the normal way of doing things & let's face it there has been nothing normal about NTL.

[Paint it Black]

Even better that there is no explanation required as the board announces production is full steam ahead at the lower quartile of production costs and will produce X thousands of ounces per annum.

But that would be the normal way of doing things & let's face it there has been nothing normal about NTL.

Looks like the 0.020 asks are exhausted and very thin buying opportunity above that. Haven't seen this upside SP potential for many years.

[Landyman]

After the boss (Sam Sharif) had to sell those oversubscription shares on market, hopefully we see her buy on market in coming weeks - that would really get the SP going!