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25-11-2023, 08:49 AM
#221
Originally Posted by Daytr
So do you think those numbers are improving this quarter?
And if so why?
Hard to predict this with confidence, but they should improve with confidence - and for all the other developments we have been talking about to date, eg., coming tax cuts etc..
At the very least, they should not materially deteriorate going forward - although NZD might be volatile when the Labour cupboard skeletons are bared.
War expansion risks remain, El Nino risks in future. On balance, NZD marches onwards and upwards past 65c...
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27-11-2023, 06:06 PM
#222
AUD hits 3 month highs v USD
How’s NZD doing?
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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27-11-2023, 06:14 PM
#223
Originally Posted by winner69
AUD hits 3 month highs v USD
How’s NZD doing?
We will know more I suspect after the RBNZ meeting on Wednesday
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28-11-2023, 06:36 AM
#224
Originally Posted by winner69
AUD hits 3 month highs v USD
How’s NZD doing?
Breached 61c overnight - also hitting 3 month highs v USD.
Expecting 62c resistance tested this month...
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28-11-2023, 08:57 AM
#225
Originally Posted by beacon
Breached 61c overnight - also hitting 3 month highs v USD.
Expecting 62c resistance tested this month...
Yep just locked in a small short.
I will establish a much bigger position on the long side if we head back towards the recent lows, otherwise I will be stopped out for a small loss.
Adrian Orr has a habit of saying what he thinks, which is a mistake as a Central Banker & Alan Greenspan would shake his head.
Although it appears Orr is starting to learn not to say too much, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear him let slip that interest rates might be eased sooner rather than later.
If he has learnt from his previous fopahs he will keep schtum and it's steady as she goes, the fight against inflation isn't over etc. And the Kiwi should hold or go higher.
Last edited by Daytr; 28-11-2023 at 09:14 AM.
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28-11-2023, 05:07 PM
#226
Or another scenario is the market is buying the rumor & sells the fact. Certainly seen that again & again.
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28-11-2023, 07:45 PM
#227
Originally Posted by Daytr
Or another scenario is the market is buying the rumor & sells the fact. Certainly seen that again & again.
Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NAB, today "... break of resistance at $0.6055 increases the chance NZD has entered a trading range up as far as $0.64."
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29-11-2023, 02:15 PM
#228
Originally Posted by beacon
Breached 61c overnight - also hitting 3 month highs v USD.
Expecting 62c resistance tested this month...
62c breached.
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29-11-2023, 02:26 PM
#229
Originally Posted by beacon
62c breached.
Instead of just taking about it happening soon Orr should just have done it today …like uo to 5.75%
Last edited by winner69; 29-11-2023 at 02:33 PM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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29-11-2023, 02:32 PM
#230
Originally Posted by winner69
Instead of just taking about it happening soon Orr should just have done it today …like uo to 5.5%
Its already at 5.5%.
Damn! Adrian Orr is learning not to say too much!
No slip up, steady as she goes.
Well done everyone else who was long!
I stopped myself out, let it gap higher & reestablished a small short.
Hopefully you find my posts helpful, but in no way should they be construed as advice. Make your own decision.
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