TEL (Telecom NZ Ltd)

**George** · 03-03-2009, 05:19 PM

Cheers Macduff/Fish
A 3 yr chart shows that Tel could get back over 3.00
and still be technically in a long term downtrend.
Question is whether the sharp drop since July is overdone.
Needs to get over 2.80 but by then most of the profit is gone.
A small position perhaps!!

**fish** · 03-03-2009, 05:54 PM

Originally Posted by belgarion

Re-entered today.

... looking for 2.20 or below to add more.

I suspect TEL is used as a proxy for the nz dollar-amongst other things-hence the expected further fall in the nz dollar plus negative market sentiment has resulted in this fall rather than any fall in nav or expected profit.

A good time to buy if you want dividend returns in the future

**onlinesid** · 06-03-2009, 07:18 PM

When's the next Telecom dividend? I thought it's 28th feb?

**Major von Tempsky** · 07-03-2009, 08:19 AM

Next dividend is Friday night next week, 13/14 March.

You guys should burn your silly meaningless charts and pay attention to the fundamentals.

TEL is in an uptrend caused by the favourable comparison of its dividend yield % with declining interest rates. Half the imputation credits are expected to be restored in the next September dividend which a rough mental calculation means a gross dividend yield % of 12.5%.
Which bank is going to pay a sustainable 12.5% going up later to 15%? Ditto finance companies and real estate.

The uptrend is disguised by exogenous unrelated shocks from overseas and as Belge says by ****ers who want to use TEL shares as a proxy for speculating in the NZ dollar and by the fact that most TEL shares are owned overseas. That doesn't change the fundamentals, it simply means that more cheap TEL shares are there for sensible NZ investors. Also it's likely that the John Key government will not be inherently anti TEL as Helengrad was, but even sympathetic to getting a reasonable investment return from its huge investments.

**George** · 07-03-2009, 09:51 AM

MVT, if I buy TEL and it is in an uptrend I expect to be in profit.
But from what point did that uptrend start, say 2.50 or higher,
I would now be at a loss???
I didn't get in at under 2.30 because of work and it bounced
but those levels indicate a POSSIBLE multi bottom so still
have a chance, but can't see any uptrend yet.

**Grimy** · 07-03-2009, 10:17 AM

Originally Posted by George

but can't see any uptrend yet.

Yeah, I'm having a bit of trouble seeing it too George. I hold TEL and am certainly looking to add more, but while the SP is heading south I don't call it as being in an uptrend.......

**bull....** · 07-03-2009, 11:05 AM

Telecom is consolidating in a sideways channel at the lows , normally this pattern is bearish but one should always wait for confirmation of breakout direction before acting.

2.20 - 2.80

A break below 2.20 would be very bearish for telecom.

Volume indicates substantial distribution occurring , probably into the hands of the mum and dad dividend yield people as some people seem to think this is a great div story.

This stock is high risk now as govt decision on broadband if unfavourable to telecom may cause the price to gap lower big time on any announcement.

**duncan macgregor** · 07-03-2009, 01:17 PM

[QUOTE=Snoopy;104663].

Yes. I think the winner will be Telecom. The exact opposite to what Mr Market thinks. I backed my bet on Friday by buying more Telecom shares. Perhaps you might be interested in the case against Mr Market...

Since the local loop unbindling announcement the Telecom share price has gone down from around $5.50 to $5 and then $4. This reaction is not an unexpected reaction to 'bad news'. What I think is unusual is the way the price fell: By 10% on announcement and by a further 20% in the month following. If the smart money was really so sure about this 'catastrophic event', why did the market price not fall sooner to $4? Furthermore if you look at the company announcements by Telecom over that subsequent month I can find nothing of consequence. My conclusion is that over this last month the market has been adrift. Mr Market has no idea what the value of Telecom is, except that it is probably between $4 and $5 (a huge range). There is my cue to take advantage of manic depressive Mr Market....
/QUOTE] Now that the share price has crashed to $2-39 it should give the FA people an opportunity to buy lots more in order to access those lovely dividends. Macdunk

**Snow Leopard** · 07-03-2009, 02:12 PM

Originally Posted by Major von Tempsky

Next dividend is Friday night next week, 13/14 March.

You guys should burn your silly meaningless charts and pay attention to the fundamentals.

TEL is in an uptrend caused by the favourable comparison of its dividend yield % with declining interest rates. Half the imputation credits are expected to be restored in the next September dividend which a rough mental calculation means a gross dividend yield % of 12.5%.
Which bank is going to pay a sustainable 12.5% going up later to 15%? Ditto finance companies and real estate.

The uptrend is disguised by exogenous unrelated shocks from overseas and as Belge says by ****ers who want to use TEL shares as a proxy for speculating in the NZ dollar and by the fact that most TEL shares are owned overseas. That doesn't change the fundamentals, it simply means that more cheap TEL shares are there for sensible NZ investors. Also it's likely that the John Key government will not be inherently anti TEL as Helengrad was, but even sympathetic to getting a reasonable investment return from its huge investments.

One could argue that the accelerated downtrend was broken by the [rather tentative?] uptrend shown here.

However I am sure others would argue otherwise.

May your investments and/or trades go with you

Paper Tiger