Dow

[Hoop]

Winner..A chart from Chris Kimble, similar outlook from another long time historical perspective.

[leonchai]

The trend line only looks like a straight line because the Y axis is not to scale, i.e 0-5000 is longer than 500-1000.

[peat]

The trend line only looks like a straight line because the Y axis is not to scale, i.e 0-5000 is longer than 500-1000.

log chart?

[winner69]

The trend line only looks like a straight line because the Y axis is not to scale, i.e 0-5000 is longer than 500-1000.

Its called a log scale mate and a better representation than using a normal scale because it reflects percentage changes better.

[Hoop]

Dow ends worst May in 70 years

http://money.cnn.com/2010/05/28/mark...york/index.htm

[Hoop]

The DOW turned into a bear today...broke the 9900 support.
The next question is how mean is this bear going to be ..a nicer short-lived Teddy Bear and then the cyclic Bull market cycle resumes or the cyclic bull dies and another big Grizzly Bear in a cyclic bear market begins

Remember at the begining of the last market recovery the "experts" reckoned there would not be any "V" shaped recovery ...more of a "L" shaped......FAIL

[winner69]

Remember at the begining of the last market recovery the "experts" reckoned there would not be any "V" shaped recovery ...more of a "L" shaped......FAIL

If the experts were right about the L then the V has been a big mistake and needs to readjust to where it would have been if it had been a L .... right?

Or maybe we are having a W after all

[Hoop]

If the experts were right about the L then the V has been a big mistake and needs to readjust to where it would have been if it had been a L .... right?

Or maybe we are having a W after all

"W" stands for wobbly

When nothing goes to how those people want it to go or according to plan, its always classed as a mistake by the other party not them.. Prechter, Roubini the perma-bear kings and today's moment heroes have reckoned the market has been making one big mistake for the last 20 years. Those investor faithfuls have lost a lot of money and lost even more in lost opportunities by following these guys recommendations over the years ..so who is making the mistakes.

For me its easy..rule of thumb.."the market is always right until it proves itself wrong".

Talking about re-adjustments (market proving itself wrong).........Annualised PE (S&P500) jumped up to 16ish from that flash lowpoint of 13 last year (crash bottom) and it was considered back then at 16 the market was considered still undervalued. That same market went to 20ish at the end of March 2010 ..20 was considered overvalued*, and correction time rumours began circulating.
* Crestmont Research had 18.9 as slightly undervalued

At the moment we are in the mid or perhaps towards the later stages of a secular bear market which requires a downtrend in annualised PE with the usual peaking and troughing as we downtrend towards the end of the Secular bear cycle which requires a change in trend to that of an uptrend from the baseline of below 10.
With this sudden bear trend movement together with 80% of the USA companies producing very good profits and bottom lines it could safe to assume that the annualised PE would have dropped quickly back from that 20ish figure at the end of March to possibly 15 now.

So the S&P500 (and probably the DOW as well) at 15 would be considered undervalued again at this moment in time...... so Winner you would assume it to be a mistake by that market if it falls another 20% within the next 6 months?

[Hoop]

Hmmmm...the media has a lot to answer for...Belg. You sound like me before I read and embraced this site http://www.crestmontresearch.com/content/market.htm it explains the mechanics of the sharemarket as well as financial physics.

Have a read of the Crestmont Research site..it may take a hour or two (many hours and many referrals for me)...It's heavy going..but persevere...expect your mind to have your ingrained beliefs twisted around, your media brainwashed beliefs purged under protest and excepting the new correct facts/disciplines will be hard to embrace.. but in the end the "penny drops" and it all starts to make perfect sense.

I thank Winner69 for pointing me to this site a few years back.
After I had read the whole site I was surprised how much false logic (reinforced by the media as being true) I had stored in my memory after 35 years of share investing.

As an educational website I rate it as an A+ (I haven't found one even close to being better).

It covers what you have mentioned in your last post in depth with facts, figures and tables.

Hint:- .....the economy and the share market are not statistically correlated.**

**The site will teach you the reasons why it's not.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Dow in triple-digit comeback

By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
June 8, 2010: 4:10 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks staged a comeback late Tuesday, with the Dow and S&P 500 rallying near the end of a choppy session, following a surge in commodity and financial shares.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 123 points, or 1.3%, and the S&P 500 index (SPX) rallied 11 points, or 1.1%. Both ended the previous session at the lowest point since Nov. 4.