SCT Chart

[Phaedrus]

K1w1, given that the latest price of $3.31 is below the nominal 337-340 resistance/support range quoted, the answer must be yes. You will be pleased to know that I have made a couple of fairly ineffectual attempts to reduce my holding of SCT. My heart is not in it though, for the following reasons :-
(1) The 3 year+ uptrend is still intact.
(2) Price action is still above the confirmed trendline.
(3) Prices have not broken below the 300 ema as plotted.
(4) Price action is well above the plotted Trailing Stop.
(5) The On Balance Volume continues to rise.
SCT is very lightly traded and is currently sporting a 4 cent bid/ask spread. Now I remember why I usually avoid illiquid stocks!

[k1w1]

Phaedrus, keep your SCT shares. Macdunks NOG's did him no harm.

Cheers,

K1w1

[k1w1]

Is there now a clear break below the resistance level giving a sell signal on this share to the TA people ?

[Phaedrus]

K1w1, given that the latest price of $3.28 is below the nominal 337-340 resistance/support range quoted, the answer must be yes. You will be pleased to know that I have been reducing my holding of SCT. My heart is not in it though, for the following reasons :-
(1) The 3 year+ uptrend is still intact.
(2) Price action is still above the confirmed trendline.
(3) Prices have not broken below the 300 ema as plotted.
(4) Price action is well above the plotted Trailing Stop.
(5) The On Balance Volume continues to rise.
SCT is very lightly traded and is currently sporting a 6 cent bid/ask spread. Now I remember why I usually avoid illiquid stocks!

[Snoopy]

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

K1w1, given that the latest price of $3.28 is below the nominal 337-340 resistance/support range quoted, the answer must be yes. You will be pleased to know that I have been reducing my holding of SCT. My heart is not in it though, for the following reasons :-
(1) The 3 year+ uptrend is still intact.
(2) Price action is still above the confirmed trendline.
(3) Prices have not broken below the 300 ema as plotted.
(4) Price action is well above the plotted Trailing Stop.
(5) The On Balance Volume continues to rise.
SCT is very lightly traded and is currently sporting a 6 cent bid/ask spread. Now I remember why I usually avoid illiquid stocks!

Aw Phaedrus, I had real hope's we would convert you back to an F/A 'buy and hold' guy and there you go selling out....

Very difficult to know from an F/A perspective where SCT goes from here. Based on their traditional business, I would say SCT has to be near the top of its share price range.

If we get a major downturn in the US and the appliance manufactuerers decide 'on mass' not to update their washing machine production lines, then SCT might be in for a tough couple of years.

OTOH the SCT move into China sounds promising. And if the automatic boning machine takes off, well, who knows how to measure the positive business effects of that!

One thing that seems to be consistant with SCT is that, based on past history, the company news doesn't 'leak out' before the market is fully informed. That would seem to reduce the usefulness of T/A for this particular share.

So with F/A and T/A both looking shakey as the company moves into new territories we might just have to go to the AGM meeting Phaedrus! It's on in Christchurch next week. Stick it in your diary!

SNOOPY

[k1w1]

In or out Phaedrus ? Did Snoopy's FA convince you to keep on holding ?

[Phaedrus]

I am out now. I had held SCT since 2001. Over this time it went from being my best stock, to my worst. The current price is less than it was over a year ago, and it has now broken below my longterm trendline. I am a patient man, but I have my limits.
The fundamentals of SCT still look good to me, but you can't help being struck by the indifference with which the market is treating this stock.
I have been putting the proceeds into NPX, on the basis of the breakout above its recent trading range.

[halcyon9]

why didnt you get a trendline sell break in Feb/Mar 04?



not being smart, just see the 2 dips before if drawn up to them would have seen you out at $2.70?

[Phaedrus]

As I have repeatedly stressed in this thread, SCT is a lightly traded stock. This means a wide bid/ask spread and greater volatility. It is generally accepted that with stocks like this, TA does not work as precisely as it does with heavily traded stocks. You have to give such stocks more than the usual amount of room to breathe.

Go back and look again at the chart that started this thread. Look particularly carefully at the 300 day ema and the 20% Trailing Stop that I was using at that time to monitor the uptrend. Would YOU have sold in Feb 04?

I think not.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

I am out now. I had held SCT since 2001. Over this time it went from being my best stock, to my worst. The current price is less than it was over a year ago, and it has now broken below my longterm trendline. I am a patient man, but I have my limits.
The fundamentals of SCT still look good to me, but you can't help being struck by the indifference with which the market is treating this stock.
I have been putting the proceeds into NPX, on the basis of the breakout above its recent trading range.

Seems to flattening out around 310

Probably needs another announcement (good or bad) to give any indication of where this is going in the medium turn