NZF Group (NZF and NZF010)

[minimoke]

Kinda agree TTG.

Getting into real estate, be it mortgage broker or real estate sales, or knock of cheap legal fees, is a very brave move in the current climate. If there aren't any sellers around (which there aren't) there no point trying to flog something to buyers - there's nothing to buy!

Real estate is in a trough at the moment. Firms need to position themselves for when there is a break out from that trough. I'm not sure now is the time. So that means capital gets burnt until that particular market begins to turn. Even when it does turn I'm not picking any major swing anytime soon. We are moving into winter when house stock tends to traditionally slow down anyway. Perhaps they are planning a Spring/summer upsurge on the back of the Rugby World cup "feel good" factor.

[Tony Two Gloves]

Yes it will certainly be tough, not sure how they hope to sell franchises in this enviroment. Did I read today they were hopeful of having 100 agents by the end of the year?

It looks like NZF have dumped their chairman also according to the companies office. No market announcement - there's a surprise!! So there are only four diretors who happen to be the four biggest shareholders no wonder we are all getting scewed over. I thought they were required to have an independant director being a listed company ?? He is also gone from NZF Money...

hmmmm rats and sinking ships, how does that go again??

[minimoke]

It looks like NZF have dumped their chairman also according to the companies office. No market announcement - there's a surprise!!

hmmmm rats and sinking ships, how does that go again??

Waddel "left" 31 December but it took them till 15 Feb to update companies Office, 3 weeks after their announcement on the notes. Compare when Sclater left after 4 months in the job. That was on 7 Dec with CO updated same day. Or when Barkwill left on 22/9/10 - CO updated same day.

[blackcap]

TTG... yes four directors and four biggest shareholders.... surely they dont want to see their investment down the drain? I surely wouldnt as a director shareholder of a company... They fact they have such large shareholdings still offers me some hope

[getontoit99]

Glad to see the thread has finally come back to something relevant to investors.

The Capital Notes election process is underway and has only six business days to run. This includes time to get your election notices into the hands of the registrar.

Come on Noteholders, time is running short. All the pontifications and opinions in this thread may make the posters feel good - and some of them may even have money at stake - but there are serious decisions you need to make and time is running out.

Your choice # 1:
The nominally safe option (my italics and no opinion impilied) - roll your notes over on the new terms.
These appear to be: Renew on new terms of 6% pa for 5 years, sell on the secondary market if you can before 2016 (likely at a price way below par) or hang on until 2016 and hope NZF decides to redeem the Notes for cash then. If they do, this will be in 2016 dollars. At 2%+ pa inflation the buying power of your capital will have been been seriously eroded.

Your choice # 2:
Elect to take shares at a small discount to a volume weighted average price of 95% of what NZF shares traded at over 20 business days prior to the maturity date of the notes, or if no shares were traded during that time, at 95% of the last price . Important: Not electing to accept the new terms for the Notes will automatically result in conversion of your Notes to shares.

The twenty business day window of volume-weighted share prices to be used to set the Note-to-shares conversion rate, started yesterday (I think). The last price at which the shares traded at to date was 10c. (There may be scope for fun and games over the next few days, either way.).

A rough calculation based on the assumptions that 1/3rd of Notes will convert to NZF shares at 95% of the last traded price of 10c:
Noteholders will acquire about 69 million shares in total adding to the 71 million shares on issue, largely held by founders of NZF and related parties.

As Enumerate put it a few days ago, taking shares could be the "punk" option for Noteholders who are sufficiently disgusted at the rollover terms, and who can stomach moving to pure equity. Noteholders who must preserve capital at all costs need to think particularly carefully about this option.

As Enmurate has said previously here, the Trust Deed allows the company to change its mind after the election process and redeem those Notes for cash, where the holder didn't choose to accept the new terms. A theory put forward in this forum is that this might just come about because the company - which is controlled by the major shareholders - doesn't want to see a share price collapse. Links provided by Enumerate on the Trust Deed and the Investment Statement are in an earlier posting.

One view is that the NZF share price will in time improve, because in part, NZF didn't crash and burn like so many other finance companies, and that the company has a different business model with less exposure to dubious loan backing, than other finance companies. These are some factors for consideration; there may be others.

So there you go; my attempt to get back to the guts of the matter.

Good luck! No one said investing would be easy.

Everything above is my view and my understanding of the situation and obviously I'm not offering advice.

[Enumerate]

Nice summary getontoit99.

In my view the resignation of the chairman should have been formally announced to the market. Wake up NZX!

[minimoke]

(There may be scope for fun and games over the next few days, either way.).

There may well be scope for a bit of fun and games. But if we look at the long term trend this stock has gone from a high of $1.60 down to a 52 week range of $0.10 - $0.21. Bids are now settling closer to the $0.10 of the last sale. There is no good news to push the value up. Any movement over this long term trend of $0.10 should be an indication of market manipulation. Given NZX don't seem too concerned about announcing the suspension of trading in notes note the loss of the Chair I doubt their will be much interest in such manipulation. Perhaps noteholders might like to mitigate loss by buying at $0.10 and hoping to sell at $0.11 for a quick 10% profit in the next few days.

[Tony Two Gloves]

I wonder if the chairman disagreed with the measly 6% offered and the treatment of the note holders and was politely showen the door?

Before Invessi tells me off again.....this is pure specualtion!! I know he has had a stroke last year so presume it may be for medical reasons.

[invessi]

TTG, there is so much unsubstantiated and false comment on this site that it is laughable, you are way off course!

[Tony Two Gloves]

Well that didn't take long......

In fairness Invessi you stated in your post the other day that Richard Waddel was still Chairman when clearly he wasn't and hasn't been since the 31/12/2010. Again a poor job by the company of communicating this which is strange when they plenty of time for ridiculous press releases like "NZF successfully exits the RDGS" which was absolutely rubbish.

Why they did not also press release that founding director and CEO John Callaghan has not played any active part in the business for over 12 months and is not expected to in the future? No disrespect to Mark Thornton but John Callaghan has been the driving force behind the company for some time as anyone there will tell you. This info for shareholders or potential investors is cruical.

They do a very poor job of communicating and only seem to want to release positive info, I think everyone deserves to know the good, bad and the ugly not just the shareholders who are directors.