Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 16 June 2011-

Confirming Strength:

Confirming Weakness:

-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'downtick' in contraction
-Institutional selling action_decreased selling_downtrend remains unconfirmed (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend: 'downtick' in negative_daily inflows 'downtick' in negative (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 21.32 > 15.23 support > 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'uptick'
-New Lows: 70 > 28 danger zone > panic zone 50
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 20 < 180 minimum target
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -8.75_negative NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: -2.69 bearish advantage

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

negative to mixed_oversold intraday bias _risk of high volatility
Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert
-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378 - adding long positions slowy

...the index today still holding above *1253 support just above the March Low *1249 but the bounce of intraday Low *1259 appears unconvincing - suggesting high risks for more downside to challenge current *1253 support/the March Low *1249 as a minimum - possibly extending down to current *1233 support - including the November 2010 High *1227 on the downside

...a successful defense in the support range *1233/*1227 would be the basis for an immediate recovery with the June 1 High *1348 an initial target


Kind Regards

[ananda77]

-SPX 500/VIX (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Trader Update -data point 17 June 2011-

Confirming Strength:

Confirming Weakness:

-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'downtick' in contraction
-Institutional selling action_decreased selling_downtrend remains unconfirmed (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend: 'sidewaystick' in negative_daily inflows 'uptick' in negative (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 22.73 > 15.23 support > 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'uptick'
-New Lows: 77 > 28 danger zone > panic zone 50
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 17 < 180 minimum target-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -8.80_negative NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: -2.69 bearish advantage

----------------------------------

Stocktiming.com recommend:negative to mixed_oversold intraday bias _risk of high volatility

Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert

-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378 - adding long positions slowy

...the SPX 500 extending the short cover off the 200-day MA *1258, but the advance has stalled just above the 15 June congestion *1281 so far - further strength expected above *1281 to challenge the June 14 High *1292/current *1299 resistance

...below *1281 or failing *1292/*1299 suggests high risks for more downside to challenge current *1233 support - including the November 2010 High *1227 on the downside

...a successful defense in the support range *1233/*1227 would be the basis for an immediate recovery with the June 1 High *1348 an initial target

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 20 June 2011-

Confirming Strength:

Confirming Weakness:

-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'uptick' in contraction
-Institutional selling action_sideways' consolidation_awaiting critical data for market direction
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend: 'uptick' in negative_daily inflows 'uptick' in negative
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 21.85 > 15.23 support > 20 stress level_long-term resistance 32.70_D/Vol 'downtick'-New Lows: 48 > 28 danger zone < panic zone 50
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 19 < 180 minimum target-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -7.67_negative NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: -2.42 bearish advantage

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

negative to mixed_oversold intraday bias

Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert
-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378 - adding long positions slowy

...the SPX 500 reversing losses at the Open - extending the short cover off the 200-day MA *1258 - heading towards the 15 June congestion *1281 second time - further strength expected above *1281 to challenge the June 14 High *1292/current *1299 resistance

...below *1281 or failing *1292/*1299 suggests high risks for more downside to challenge current *1233 support - including the November 2010 High *1227 on the downside

...a successful defense in the support range *1233/*1227 would be the basis for an immediate recovery with the June 1 High *1348 an initial target

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 21 June 2011-

Confirming Strength:

Confirming Weakness:

-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'uptick' in contraction
-Institutional selling action_'downtick'_inflection point_awaiting critical data for market direction
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-Short term liquidity trend: 'uptick' in negative_daily inflows 'uptick' in negative
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 19.99 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 24.65_D/Vol 'downtick'
-New Lows: 49 > 28 danger zone < panic zone 50
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 29 < 180 minimum target
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -6.64_negative NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: -1.58 bearish advantage

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

mixed to negative_oversold intraday bias

Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert
-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378 - adding long positions slowy

...the SPX 500 managed to trade higher past the June 14 High *1292 to intraday *1296 - introducing potential for further gains into overhead resistance current *1302

...failing near *1302 suggests high risks for more downside to challenge current *1233 support - including the November 2010 High *1227 on the downside

...a successful defense in the support range *1233/*1227 would be the basis for an immediate recovery with the June 1 High *1348 an initial target

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Creation



A little girl asked her mother: "How did the human race appear?"
The mother Answered: "God made Adam and Eve and they had children, and so was all mankind made".
Two days later the girl asked her father the same question.
The father answered: "Many years ago there were monkeys from which the human race evolved."



The confused girl returned to her mother and said: " Mom , how is it possible that you told me the human race was created by God, and Dad said they developed from monkeys"?
The mother answered: "Well, dear, it is very simple. I told you about my side of the family and your father told you about his."

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 22 June 2-11-

Confirming Strength:

-Institutional selling action_short term downtrend
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-New Lows: 23 < 28 danger zone < panic zone 50

Confirming Weakness:

-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'uptick' in contraction
-Short term liquidity trend: 'uptick' in negative_daily inflows 'uptick' in positive
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 18.63 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 24.65_D/Vol 'downtick'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 44 < 180 minimum target
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -2.86_negative NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: -0.17 bearish advantage/neutral

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

mixed to positive intraday bias

Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert
-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378

...ranging below overhead resistance current *1302 with short term momentum hurdling away from *1299 intraday price action

..high risks for bearish reversal to challenge current *1233 support - including the November 2010 High *1227 on the downside

...a successful defense in the support range *1233/*1227 would be the basis for an immediate recovery with the June 1 High *1348 an initial target

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

Just so long as the 200 MA is defended then I still consider this correction to a based on short-term macro events (read: ongoing noise and rubbish from greece et al (and there's a huge amount of rubbish! another Lehman's? don't make me laugh!), Japan earthquakes, Middle east debacles affecting perceptions of oil supply, spikes in commodity prices driven by fear of currencies and perceptions of short term shortages, Australia floods, etc. etc. ... meanwhile the rest of the world is just getting "battle-hardened" and getting on with business.)

Totally agree Belg
The media have been incredibly negative these last 2 years

Based on what you have read in the media do you think the S&P 500 earnings/index is anywhere near what it was in the euphoria years before the 2008/09 GFC...
.
.
Answer....S&P500 earnings forecasted to be at an all time high in 2011
.


S&P 500
Earnings in prior years: ............. Earnings ............. Historical P/E .... Historical Earnings Yield

2010 Actual GAAP Earnings............ $76.97........................ 16.3.......................... 6.1%
2009 Actual GAAP Earnings........... $50.97........................ 21.9.....................4.6%
2008 Actual GAAP Earnings........... $14.88.................. 60.7.....................1.6%
2007 Actual GAAP Earnings........... $66.18.................. 22.2.......................... 4.5%
2006 Actual GAAP Earnings........... $81.51....................... 17.4.................... 5.7%
2005 Actual GAAP Earnings........... $69.93....................... 17.8.................... 5.6%
2004 Actual GAAP Earnings........... $58.55....................... 20.7.......................... 4.8%
2003 Actual GAAP Earnings........... $48.74.................. 22.8......................... 4.4%

EST 2011 GAAP Earnings................ $92.80.................. 14.2......................... 7.0%

The feeling is from the boffins is that the est $92,80 profit / index is set too high ..not because the economy is ailing but totally the reverse. When the USA population "get over it" and perceive the economy is coming right monetary constraints will emerge to control the anticipated inflation and excessive growth ..therefore interest rates will rise, currency will rise, commodity prices will not necessarily come down, competitive pricing strategies will increase thereby squeezing profit margins and earnings.
In other words when the economy finally comes right as everyone is wishing and hoping for....the Equity Market (share market S&P500) could soften and drop into another cyclic bear cycle. This drop could be large, annualised P/E Ratio trends down in a Secular Bear Market (2000-20??). Inflation (not the economy) is the major driver of the Equity market therefore if inflation increases, the market drop is magnified ..all happening at the time when the economy has "come right" :

Contrary to the media...the best times for businesses in the S&P500 index is probably happening NOW.

Data References
http://www.investorsfriend.com/S%20a...0valuation.htm
http://www-eq.standardandpoors.com/p...0,0,0,1,0.html

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 23 June 2011-

Confirming Strength:

-Institutional selling action_short term downtrend
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-New Lows: 24 < 28 danger zone < panic zone 50

Confirming Weakness:

-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'downtick' in contraction
-Short term liquidity trend: 'uptick' in negative_daily inflows 'downtick' in positive
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 18.52 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 24.65_D/Vol 'uptick'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 55 < 180 minimum target
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -4.25_negative NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock ratio: -0.14 bearish advantage/neutral

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

mixed_oversold intraday bias

Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert
-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378

...SPX 500 failed at intraday *1299 yesterday - consequent rapid slide today interrupted at the 200-day MA current *1261 - bounce off 200-day support *1261 unconvincing_appears temporary

...high risk to follow through lower to challenge March Low *1249_ current *1228 support_including the November 2010 High *1227 on the downside

...a successful defense in the support range *1233/*1227 would be the basis for an immediate recovery with the June 1 High *1348 an initial target

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 24 June 2011-

SPX 500_VIX
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Confirming Strength:

-Institutional selling action_'uptick' in short term downtrend
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Confirming Weakness:

-SPX 500 May 23 'Sell' Alert
-SPX 500 C-RSI 9 < C-RSI 30
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'downtick' in contraction
-Short term liquidity trend: 'uptick' in negative_daily inflows 'downtick' in positive
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 19.29 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 24.65_D/Vol 'uptick'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 38 < 180 minimum target
-New Lows: 49 > 28 danger zone < panic zone 50
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 -5.4_negative NYA-Momentum -Leadership stock ratio: -0.10 neutral

----------------------------------
Stocktiming.com recommend:

mixed to negative intraday bias

Conservative: May 16_upside potential < downside risk = 'go to cash'_May 23 'Sell' Alert
-----------------------------------

Today's Session:

hedged *1378

...potential for very volatile day_including a short squeeze attempt to push the market higher

...the SPX 500 jibed through the 15 June congestion *1281 third time but remains supported above the 200-day MA *1262 with an intraday Low *1270 so far

.....below *1281 suggests high risks for more downside to challenge the March Low *1249 initially - scope yo stretch lower to current *1230 support_December 16 Low *1233 - including the November 2010 High *1227 on the downside

...a successful defense in the support range *1249/ *1233/*1227 would be the basis for an immediate recovery with the June 1 High *1348 an initial target

Kind Regards

[peat]

daily was down pretty hard but at these levels those long wicks from some of the previous days may offer suppor

shorter term looks like a 5th wave ending diagonal also suggesting possibility of a sudden snap back - but the fact that its clearly 5 waves down means we could be on a longer term downward path.

Attachment 3422