Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[Financially dependant]

1224 End of day....

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 14 October 2011-

*15% Hedged: *1200

..the SPX 500 managed a new up-trend High *1125 suggesting further upside to test the August 31 2011 High *1231 - index showing early overbought on daily time frame

...although instituions currently trying a positive bias, no directional committment is apparent - the VIX now trading below the minimum 31 comfort level, but a Close below 29.5 is needed to strengthen the instituional positive bias

...until then, risk are high that the market is near a top - a Close below the October 10 2011 congestion *1182 is needed however for confirmation

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 17 October 2011-

Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...Friday 14 October 2011: a bullish VIX Close 28.4

15% Hedged: *1200

...above study shows institutional buy_sell behavior compared to the VIX: a positive institutional bias under construction in line with continued sideways VIX action (note the positve divergence in the buy_sell spread)

...the VIX Close 28.4 will increase the positive bias substantially for a test to take out the VIX 20 support

...as a result, above the October 10 2011 congestion *1182, the market bias remains bullish - and the All Blacks took out the Australians

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 18 October 2011-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...overbought on the daily time frame combined with strong overhead resistance and continuous lack of institutional directional committment (largely reducing selling and weak accumulation), the market failed the October 14 2011 suggested test of the August 31 2011 High *1231 and corrected down

...a violation or better a Close below the October 10 2011 congestion *1182 would confirm a top and signal, the market is vulnerable to a larger corrective pullback to affirm the *1112/*1125 congestion

...depending on institutional comittment, a successful defended *1100 support will set the index up for a re-test of the August 31 2011 High *1231 - potential to move higher towards the 200-day MA

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 20 October 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

15% Hedged: *1200

...the SPX continues to trade/consolidate above the October 12 2011 Low *1186 and the 31 August 2011 High *1130 working its way out of overbought (78% of SPX 500 stocks currently trending positive) slowly- market bias remains positive but weak without directional committment

...a violation or better a Close below the October 10 2011 congestion *1182 would confirm a top and signal, the market is vulnerable to a larger corrective pullback to affirm the *1112/*1125 congestion

...depending on institutional comittment, a successful defended *1100 support will set the index up for a re-test of the August 31 2011 High *1231 - potential to move higher towards the 200-day MA

Kind Regards

[winner69]

Hoop - I take it that this is not good news when trying to pick where the markets are going - copper at 15 month low

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...-1226172448609

[Hoop]

Hoop - I take it that this is not good news when trying to pick where the markets are going - copper at 15 month low

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...-1226172448609

Hi Winner
It's not good news when copper drop as it is seen as an global economic indicator...You get political BS from time to time when USA has a crack at China..one was when China (not the sporting thing..old Chap) trickle dumped US$ and bought copper reserves during the early recovery...however from chart history that's what always happens..... Copper is a good leading indicator to show cyclic changes especially equity change from bear to bull (100% accurate so far in the last 100 years).

What is a very worrying sight is the pause in the equity markets...its like it being suspended and are defying gravity....a bit like those old cartoons when a character e.g Wle-E-Coyote runs of a cliff suspended in mid-air before gravity takes over


The chart below with the 3 indexes relating to each other shows a worrying divergence towards the S&P500 index

[Hoop]

Well....the second confirmation today (first being the MA50 crossover)...the rectangle breakout S&P500 closed at 1238.
Index sitting on the MA200 line....
TA indicators are responding to the index raise and are positive.
Only the networking macro stuff like a couple I drew in the above chart is out of sync...strange??

A smell of a bull trap?

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 25 October 2011-

SPX 50 chart: http://wwwspx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...the SPX 500 broke above the 3 August 2011/17October 2011 key resistance *1233/*1235 to a new 24 October 2011up-trend High *1257 - institutions stay with a positive bias (selling less/weak accumulation) without directional committment

...formidable overhead resistance *1261 ahead!

...above *1220, the index is set to reach out to the next overhead *1317 target going forward, but risks remain for a larger pull-back to re-test the *1220 key support

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 26 October 2011-

100% Hedged: *1258

...the market missed overhead resistance *1261 to leave the 24 October 2011 up-trend High *1257 as a top in place - at least near term - heavy selling pressure followed the intraday High *1254 that closed the index *1229 - below the 3 August 2011/17 October 2011 key resistance *1233/*1235

...the expected larger pull-back to re-test the *1220 key support appears to be underway, supported by the number of very large stocks only leading strong stocks by a very thin margin

...chances are, the market will pull lower to the 21 October 2011 Low *1215 with downside potential reaching out to the 20 October 2011 Low *1197/18 October 2011 Low *1191

Kind Regards