Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[ananda77]

Top of Head Stuff:

...SPX 500 tested *1337 and closed below the 9 February 2012 Low *1344.63 - the VIX testing its 50-dsm and closed bearish *20.79 outside the descending wedge -on a line chart, the first outside Close would be above *19.60-
...as a result, the market may rally once more to test the latest High (the index is heavily overbought in the long term time frame, but has room to move up on the daily) - however, risks are now very high, a corrective draw down has started already - 85% portfolio protection in place

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 15 February 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 14 Fenruary 2012 SPX 500 market continues its sideways trade below the 9 February 2012 High *1354.32 closing above 9 February 2012 Low *1344.63 - staying well clear of the 6 February 2012 Low *1337.52 - downside price action above 9 February 2012 Low *1344.63_the 6 February 2012 Low *1337.52 failed so far to inflict any real damage to the bullish market bias - continuous liquidity inflows near the present congestion Lows has so far prevented the onset of a selling stampede

VIX charts: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX trade briefly jolted above resistance and keeps skidding along above it but real damage so far appears to be under liquidity control unless a more serious challenge to the bullish bias arises

...a Close above the bearish inspired *23.44 level could act as the more serious challenge to the grip of a constant inflow of liquidity - below the *23.44 ceiling, a possible sideways VIX action would be unable to overcome the bullish bias in the market for some 'New Highs' to come yet

...nevertheless, the markets remain heavily overbought in the long term time frame - risks remain very high, a corrective draw down has started already or will become more meaningful in the near future - 85% portfolio protection in place

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

A77, that overbought condition may last for quite a while as many unwind longer bond positions ... I don't see this indicator in a negitive light at this time (or for quite q few months to come for that matter).

...agree, Belgarion could go on for a while longer as the market is in its third leg up counting from the 31 March 2009 - the longest leg - driven by the public investor - so far the market happy with little sell-offs which are actually easy to trade - a big temporary sell-off however is due

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 16 February 2012-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 15 February 2012 SPX 500 set a new intraday congestion High *1355.87, just a fraction below the 7 July 2011 Top *1356.48 - this time round, the sell-off following the Intra High had a more vicious tone to it, but in the end, the bullish bias remains intact above the 6 February 2012 Low *1337.52 key level - despite the roll over in the daily, the hourly market now extremely oversold and some consolidation of todays losses can be expected

VIX charts: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX penetraded the 50-dsma current *21.64 with an Intraday High *21.77, but settled well clear of the bearish inspired *23.44 level

...despite expecting a very volatile challenge around the *1337 key support, for now, portfolio protection reduced to 50% *1337.87 above the 6 February 2012 Low *1337.52_below the bearish inspired *23.44 key level

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 17 February 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the bulls clearly dominated the 16 February 2012 market setting a new 2012 intraday High *1359.02 - unfortunately unable to drive the stake through the 3 May 2011 Top *1359.84, the index dangles precariously below the *1360 mark - denting the bullish show of strength alongside the Dow_Nasdaq companion markets which failed to surpass yesterday's intra Highs -

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX story keeps repeating the bullish mantra unable to close on top of the 50-dsma current *21.47_the bearish inspired *23.44

...the markets remain heavily overbought in the long term time frame - risks remain very high an interim Top is building - portfolio protection increased to 85% *1359

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 21 February 2011-

COT chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...to the 14 February 2012, the dominant driver remains the public investor - larger speculators selling into strength in tune with the public investor driving up prices - reducing their selling when enthusiasm for higher prices is falling

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 left its congestion range with a new 17 February 2012 High *1363.40 above the 15 February 2012 *1355.87 congestion High - heading higher towards the 2 May 2012 Top *1370.58 - price action successfully tested the *1337.00 support level and consequently setting a new bullish inspired *1351_*1355 support range

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...for the VIX trade, a trading range below the *23.44 resistance and above the *18.00 support would be supportive of higher prices

......the markets remain heavily overbought in the long term time frame - risks remain very high an interim Top is building - portfolio protection remains at 85%

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 22 February 2012-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 21 February 2012 SPX 500 market had a first unsuccessful meeting with the 5 May 2011 Top *1370.58 with an intraday High *1367.76 before selling knocked the index back - however, selling did no damage to the bullish trade with an intraday Low *1358.11 - comfortably above the new bullish inspired *1351_*1355 support range

Institutional Selling chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...instituional selling trending up to sideways since January

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...with inflowing liquidity remaining high, the VIX trade appears to move sideways supporting upward price pressure

...the markets remain heavily overbought in the long term time frame - risks remain very high an interim Top is building - portfolio protection remains at 85%

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 23 February 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 22 February 2012 SPX 500 market delivered more downside but still closed above the bullish inspired *1351_*1355 support range
- the trade appears to drive the index up in a step up consolidation mode, delivering excellent trading opportunities in the hourly short term frame oscillating from extreme overbought to extreme oversold - today's violation of 15 February 2012 High *1355.83 with an intraday Low *1355.23 however introduces some weakness to the bullish set-up that could invite more downside to challenge the 10 February 2012 High *1351.21
- trading down to the 10 February 2012 High *1351.21 or lower intraday would deliver a strong enough oversold condition in the hourly to motivate the market into a push past the 5 May 2011 Top *1370.58
- a Close below the 10 February 2012 High *1351.21 with the 6 February 2012 Low *1337.52 as an initial target would be a serious attempt to wear off the extreme overbought condition in the weekly frame

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX currently stuck close to the *18.00 support confirms the continuation of the bullish market bias even during down days

...whatever, in terms of risk, the markets remain extremely overbought in the longer term frame with high risks of a sudden drop in liquidity inflows - portfolio protection at 90%

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

Ananda quote..."...whatever, in terms of risk, the markets remain extremely overbought in the longer term frame with high risks of a sudden drop in liquidity inflows - portfolio protection at 90%..."

I agree...S&P 500 closed on it's 1363 resistance line. Risk v Reward shows far too much risk. Chart formation rising wedge is bearish. Most commentators/investors are too bullish and too complacent (low VIX 16.8).....that indicates most are already "in the market" reducing the amount of future buyers in the short term future (bearish).

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 24 February 2012-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 23 February 2012 SPX 500 market followed the hourly script with a successful test in the low level of the bullish inspired *1351_*1355 support range, rallying off an intraday Low *1352.28. The bullish rally took out the 22 February 2012 *1362.70 on the way and motored passed the 17 February High *1363.40 as well to a strong Close *1363.46
-in the short term hourly trade system, price barely pulled out of oversold with an eleven point lift making it unlikely, the bears will see a lot of honey in a down strike at this point. The immediate attraction for the market is rather to take out the 21 February 2012 High *1367.76 and drive the index past the 5 May 2011 Top *1370.58 into the *1400 Psych barrier

VIX Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the bullish VIX trade supports the go for a higher high before market enthusiasm for higher highs exhausts itself. However, the apparent bullish day also carried a very neutral = slightly bearish Trin *1.04 mark

...the SPX 500 market continues to deliver excellent intraday trading opportunities but remains extremely overbought with no respite in sight in the longer term frame
- high risks of a sudden drop in liquidity inflows remain - portfolio protection at 90%

Kind Regards