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  1. #1
    Junior Member omad's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    NZ
    Posts
    22

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post

    I don't know about Market pricing probabilities.. that game seems rigged, Omad ................It's hard enough trying to predict what will happen tomorrow with a single variable e.g the S&P500 index... less alone trying to predict what each of the hundreds of variables and networked variables will do by years end in the market pricing process... how on earth can anyone get a probability of 30% or any probability for that matter.
    Probabilities are what they are, can't be rigged when you can take either side of the trade.

    You would be surprised how well the probabilities work out, my trading is based on it, fundamentals and news are totally ignored, chart patterns and indicators, no thanks. Based on those rigged market pricing probabilities I control my win/loss percentage and month in month out the numbers turn out where they should.

    For the record I'm not all doom and gloom and I'm not saying S&P won't be at 1750 buy end of year, makes no difference to me as long as we get some volatility in the mean time.

  2. #2
    Guru
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Hamilton New Zealand.
    Posts
    4,252

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    Quote Originally Posted by omad View Post
    Probabilities are what they are, can't be rigged when you can take either side of the trade.

    You would be surprised how well the probabilities work out, my trading is based on it, fundamentals and news are totally ignored, chart patterns and indicators, no thanks. Based on those rigged market pricing probabilities I control my win/loss percentage and month in month out the numbers turn out where they should.

    For the record I'm not all doom and gloom and I'm not saying S&P won't be at 1750 buy end of year, makes no difference to me as long as we get some volatility in the mean time.
    Hi Omad..it seems you have a system that works for you..good on ya... ...Thanks for your useful post...as we all on ST strive to be more successful...

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