RYM vs. SUM

[percy]

So the prospectus planned for 134 sales and 124 reslaes for the whole year

In six months they did 83 and 88

So to meet prospectus forecast they just need to sell 51 more units and 36 more resales. Looks like they will smash it Nice change for a company to obliterate its prospectus forecast, should do much to improve sentiment towards the company

Well I think this result sets the tone for this very well company in the "healthy" retirement sector.

[CJ]

Sparky - dont forget Rym has had a div since start of the year, two Div since SUM IPO'ed. Has SUM had a div yet?

[percy]

Well with my purchase of some SUM this morning I am pleased to have a foot in both camps.
Not being greedy I will leave MET to others.

[ratkin]

Here is a simple chart showing that the performance thus far has been almost identical between the two , although i havent factored in Rymans dividend


Attachment 4053

[ratkin]

Does the chart show up ok? When i view not logged in , cant see it , not sure if i post i upload correctly

[percy]

Does the chart show up ok? When i view not logged in , cant see it , not sure if i post i upload correctly

Just perfect,thank you.

[ratkin]

Just perfect,thank you.

Thats good, wont be able to post anymore charts for a while , am in Cambrils on the costa dorada in Spain, having a holiday , been here three days and weather perfect , cant say i have seen many signs of a recession, quite a few appartments for sale but they not exactly cheap by NZ standards. Even have a Billibong shop down the road, seem to be doing a roaring trade in shorts
If any of you looking for a winter holiday you could do worse than singapore airlines chch to Barcelona , worth it just to oggle the women

[percy]

Thats good, wont be able to post anymore charts for a while , am in Cambrils on the costa dorada in Spain, having a holiday , been here three days and weather perfect , cant say i have seen many signs of a recession, quite a few appartments for sale but they not exactly cheap by NZ standards. Even have a Billibong shop down the road, seem to be doing a roaring trade in shorts
If any of you looking for a winter holiday you could do worse than singapore airlines chch to Barcelona , worth it just to oggle the women

Pity about the charts.
Would it be possible to post photos of the women?
Have a good holiday.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Thats good, wont be able to post anymore charts for a while , am in Cambrils on the costa dorada in Spain, having a holiday , been here three days and weather perfect , cant say i have seen many signs of a recession, quite a few appartments for sale but they not exactly cheap by NZ standards. Even have a Billibong shop down the road, seem to be doing a roaring trade in shorts
If any of you looking for a winter holiday you could do worse than singapore airlines chch to Barcelona , worth it just to oggle the women

Will be there in a few days via Singapore Airlines to Barcelona. Looking forward to it.

[MAC]

Over the last six months I’ve heard RYM described as ”fully valued”, I’ve also heard and used the term “over valued” myself, but I’ve come to a position where I think the term “fully banked” is entirely more appropriate.

The residential healthcare sector is driven by such a significant enduring demographic that many expect growth to continue for a decade or more as the wealthiest generation in history, the baby boomers, work through the process of requiring aged care.

If you are a fund or institutional manager you will have a proportion of your portfolio in shares and in cash.

If as such a manager you see a sector such as this with apparently a decade of consistent forward growth, why would you not wish to compare returns on cash holdings with the residential healthcare sector. Sure, the risks are still higher owning stock than cash, and therefore returns should reflect that risk.

But, with such consistent forward earnings prospects I believe that fund managers are prepared to pay right now what RYM will be fundamentally worth in 2 to 3 years’ time. If they are investing with a long term horizon than any SP price that will provide cash equivalent returns plus a risk margin may well be perceived as a bargain.

The question then becomes thus, how many ‘valuation years’ ahead are institutions prepared to look in assessing the share price they will presently pay right now for RYM shares. It would seem to me, IMHO, that RYM at $6.81 is now valued between 2 and 3 years into the future.

A lot can happen in 3 years and I would be surprised if this trend continues too much further, therefore I’m prepared to describe RYM as now being “fully banked”. From this point forward RYM may continue to remain perpetually fully banked with SP growth more consistent with NPAT growth, ie: with a forward PEG of around 1.0.

When I look at SUM I don’t yet see this effect. The present SP of $3.07 appears to be fairly valued as at HY13, maybe slightly undervalued. This may be for a number of reasons, a prospective Quadrant sell down, the fact that fewer analysts cover SUM, and although SUM is the company awarded by the industry it is RYM that is the market darling.

My expectation is that SUM will though become fully banked just like RYM at some point in the future. Thus, this may potentially make SUM a better investment for the next couple of years.

Interested in the thoughts of other investors.