SML - Synlait Milk Ltd

[FarmerHamilton]

Late News Item from stuff.

"Synlait Milk to beat targets"

Looks like this was the reason for todays high closing price. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

Today's announcement from Fonterra was SPECTACULARLY good news for Synlait Milk. I estimate that single announcement will probably increase the bottom line by between $10m and $15m for the 13/14 financial year .

WOW !!!

[K1W1G0LD]

Today's announcement from Fonterra was SPECTACULARLY good news for Synlait Milk. I estimate that single announcement will probably increase the bottom line by between $10m and $15m for the 13/14 financial year .

WOW !!!

Yes FH all good news. Its going to be a great Xmas

[FarmerHamilton]

Still holding 64,299 .... but the ones I sold below $3 ... wish I could have those back !!

[percy]

Projected profit of SML.
As per prospectus; $19.67 mil = eps .1344cents gives a PE of 28.87
As per prospectus,plus 20% ;$23.60=eps .1613 cents gives a PE of 24.05.
As per prospectus plus FarmerHamilton's $15mil;$34.67=eps .2369 vents gives a PE of 16.38.
No dividend forecast.Market cap.$567,803,844.
Projected profit of HNZ $34mil to $37mil
PE either 9.93 to PE 9.12.Dividend 6cents,yield 6.98% Market cap $337,596,938.
So SML is valued at $230mil more than HNZ,is earning less [even with FarmerHamilton's extra $15mil of earnings] and is not paying a dividend.
I think SML is a fine company,that is why I brought into them,it is just as I posted earlier that I thought ratios had got a bit stretched,so I sold.

[FarmerHamilton]

Projected profit of SML.
As per prospectus; $19.67 mil = eps .1344cents gives a PE of 28.87
As per prospectus,plus 20% ;$23.60=eps .1613 cents gives a PE of 24.05.
As per prospectus plus FarmerHamilton's $15mil;$34.67=eps .2369 vents gives a PE of 16.38.
No dividend forecast.Market cap.$567,803,844.
Projected profit of HNZ $34mil to $37mil
PE either 9.93 to PE 9.12.Dividend 6cents,yield 6.98% Market cap $337,596,938.
So SML is valued at $230mil more than HNZ,is earning less [even with FarmerHamilton's extra $15mil of earnings] and is not paying a dividend.
I think SML is a fine company,that is why I brought into them,it is just as I posted earlier that I thought ratios had got a bit stretched,so I sold.

Not 100% sure how many kgMS they will process this year. Fonterra announcement was probably worth between 50-70c / kg MS of milk solids processed to SML ... at 30,000,000 and 70c my $10-$15m might be more like $21m at the top ed of my very rough calculation. SML are 100% powder ... no cheese ( AMF is cream by-product which pricing is extremely firm ) and Fonterra made specific mention that they make too much cheese and not enough powder to achieve maximum return on each litre of milk processed.

SML just traded at 420c ... almost a double on 220c IPO now !!

Still holding 64,299

[percy]

Not 100% sure how many kgMS they will process this year. Fonterra announcement was probably worth between 50-70c / kg MS of milk solids processed to SML ... at 30,000,000 and 70c my $10-$15m might be more like $21m at the top ed of my very rough calculation. SML are 100% powder ... no cheese ( AMF is cream by-product which pricing is extremely firm ) and Fonterra made specific mention that they make too much cheese and not enough powder to achieve maximum return on each litre of milk processed.

SML just traded at 420c ... almost a double on 220c IPO now !!

Still holding 64,299

Bugger sold too early!!! lol.
Right forecast as per prospectus $19.67 plus new FarmerHamilton $21 mil gives us profit of $40.67mil or eps of 28cents.
So PE at share price of $4.20 is looking a lot better at 15. Still no talk of a divie.

[FarmerHamilton]

Bugger sold too early!!! lol.
Right forecast as per prospectus $19.67 plus new FarmerHamilton $21 mil gives us profit of $40.67mil or eps of 28cents.
So PE at share price of $4.20 is looking a lot better at 15. Still no talk of a divie.

Yes, but they have already announced ( 30/08/13 ) that they will process more milk than the prospectus forecasts and every extra litre I am guessing could be worth quite a bit of extra $$ to them , especially now that they are "having Fonterra for lunch" on the product split revenue per tonne.

The 2013/14 profit could be a real BLOW-OUT of huge proportions in the right direction ... a few years ago it was in the wrong direction on half the volume and cost a heap !!

[zigzag]

Holy cow !!!

[zigzag]

Bugger sold too early!!! lol.
Right forecast as per prospectus $19.67 plus new FarmerHamilton $21 mil gives us profit of $40.67mil or eps of 28cents.
So PE at share price of $4.20 is looking a lot better at 15. Still no talk of a divie.

Percy. They're always said it will be a number of years before they even consider paying a dividend. FirstNZCap. had a price target of $4.00, before the latest announcement. Hope the weather in Christchurch is as good as up here in Auckland, and all the cows are grazing contentedly in lush Canterbury pastures.

[percy]

Percy. They're always said it will be a number of years before they even consider paying a dividend. FirstNZCap. had a price target of $4.00, before the latest announcement. Hope the weather in Christchurch is as good as up here in Auckland, and all the cows are grazing contentedly in lush Canterbury pastures.

I was mentioning dividend as I thought it was important when I was comparing SML to HNZ for Kiwigold.
Looks as though First NZ Cap are right ,again.!!!
Bit of wind here today.Suppose to have showers,but have not seen them yet.Also suppose to get to 27 today,which will be a hot for the cows too!!!.Next few days are for hot dry conditions.