Orion Health

[Joshuatree]

Thanks for your pro view kiora and your equanimity. always good to get bit of balance and opposing views.

[kiora]

Thanks for your pro view kiora and your equanimity. always good to get bit of balance and opposing views.

Thanks Joshuatree ,its seems that the negatives can displace the positives on the sharetrader sometimes.

[Balance]

Thanks Joshuatree ,its seems that the negatives can displace the positives on the sharetrader sometimes.

Lack of financial forecasts mean the company is not prepared to be measured and judged against stated strategies and goals.

Looking like a NXT listing where it's no care and no responsibility?

[kiora]

Lack of financial forecasts mean the company is not prepared to be measured and judged against stated strategies and goals.

Looking like a NXT listing where it's no care and no responsibility?

OR It could be that Macrae doesn't want to get it wrong and doesn't want another "Gentrack" like incident after listing

[Harvey Specter]

Thanks Joshuatree ,its seems that the negatives can displace the positives on the sharetrader sometimes.

If it has listed last year when everyone was bullish on tech stocks, it would have been different. They could have sold at over $1B and everyone would have been piling in.

[GoldenStag]

If it has listed last year when everyone was bullish on tech stocks, it would have been different. They could have sold at over $1B and everyone would have been piling in.

Yep. I was quite thankful that the instos stood up to Hirepool and voted with wallets closed. It helped bring perspective again.

As I've said before, I view Orion more like Gentrack than Xero with the same traits - software, growth, lumpy sales, sticky customers, potential moat. So, let's look at GTK here...

Market capitalisation
GTK = $150m versus Orion = $720m - $915m ( x 4.8 - x 6.1 )

Revenue
GTK = $40m versus Orion = $160m - ( x 4)

EBITDA
GTK = $14m versus Orion = -$5m - ( x -0.4 ) but looking further back to be generous Orion 2012 = $8m ( x 0.6 )

Don't get me wrong, I really like Orion and its prospects above that of Gentrack. But in a comparison all of the good things like EBITDA and Revenue don't have big multipliers, and all of the bad things like price do have big multipliers. So, stacking one software company against another software company with similar lumpy customers and global growth, you get some strange comparison numbers.

It leaves me wondering where the good stuff is for the investors. Are we just supposed to go "Okay we'll give you money based on how much you say it is worth and when you feel like it, you can give us some money later if you reach your goals in 2020".

[GoldenStag]

Market capitalisation
GTK = $150m versus Orion = $720m - $915m ( x 4.8 - x 6.1 )
Revenue
GTK = $40m versus Orion = $160m - ( x 4)

The interesting this is that if you kept the revenue multiplier of 4 for GTK to Orion and applied it to market capitalisation, then you would get Orion = GTK x 4 = $150m x 4 = $600m.

Now this is an okay price number and would be in the original mooted $550m - $800m price range.

I'd be keen at $600m and also happy to pay a bit of a premium above that because I like Orion's prospects. But it still wouldn't get up to the $720 - $915m range of the IPO.

[kiora]

Yep. I was quite thankful that the instos stood up to Hirepool and voted with wallets closed. It helped bring perspective again.

As I've said before, I view Orion more like Gentrack than Xero with the same traits - software, growth, lumpy sales, sticky customers, potential moat. So, let's look at GTK here...

Market capitalisation
GTK = $150m versus Orion = $720m - $915m ( x 4.8 - x 6.1 )

Revenue
GTK = $40m versus Orion = $160m - ( x 4)

EBITDA
GTK = $14m versus Orion = -$5m - ( x -0.4 ) but looking further back to be generous Orion 2012 = $8m ( x 0.6 )

Don't get me wrong, I really like Orion and its prospects above that of Gentrack. But in a comparison all of the good things like EBITDA and Revenue don't have big multipliers, and all of the bad things like price do have big multipliers. So, stacking one software company against another software company with similar lumpy customers and global growth, you get some strange comparison numbers.

It leaves me wondering where the good stuff is for the investors. Are we just supposed to go "Okay we'll give you money based on how much you say it is worth and when you feel like it, you can give us some money later if you reach your goals in 2020".

Yes I agree with what you are saying Goldenstag. In my view investors also need to assess the potential market and the ranking of the Company in that market.There are others in Orion Health space but they have first mover advantage particularly in the USA ? Which also carries its own risks etc

[Harvey Specter]

As I've said before, I view Orion more like Gentrack than Xero with the same traits - software, growth, lumpy sales, sticky customers, potential moat.

Good comparison. Do you know what GTK historical growth looks like?

[GoldenStag]

Good comparison. Do you know what GTK historical growth looks like?

GTK revenue
2012 $13m
2013 $40m
2014 $38m (forecast)