Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[Hoop]

That previous chart was the DOW. Here's the SP500, however my commentary is very similar except the next test is the 38.2% fib. The 50EMA is very close to the 50% not-a-fib providing overhead resistance. Again though, all indicators shown suggest an upside test to come in the short term.

Attachment 7638

Not shown on BaaBaa's chart is the 6.5yr Bull cycle primary trendline coming into view on the right hand bottom of the chart which the S&P500 touched both times on 25 August (1867) and 29th September (1871)..This gives the Bull investors great joy as it reinforces their argument against the cyclic reversal brigade that this market weakness is just another bull market correction...

However this bull/bear fight is not over and the outcome is not clear yet..

The S&P500 is banging on the old dead cat bounce ceiling (also a year old resistance level) at 1996/1998..and it could turn down here...if it pushes on through the next hurdle is the 61.8% Fib at ~2013...61.8% Fib areas are invisible areas where for some unknown instinctive reason investors (as a herd) start to get the Willies...If this area is breached it would be another victory to the Market correction supporters..but the Bull/bearfight would still continue until a record high is achieved.....up until then the risks are high.. very high around resistance areas such as we are experiencing now.

Frostyboy...better next time ..that might not be very far away..eh?

[Baa_Baa]

... the 6.5yr Bull cycle primary trendline coming into view on the right hand bottom of the chart which the S&P500 touched both times on 25 August (1867) and 29th September (1871) ...

I can find that trend line using a weekly chart arithmetic scale, closing price basis, but it's there alright, running parallel and above what I would call the primary trend line from Mar'09.

Attachment 7655

[ananda77]

...past 2020 confirmed, is the point to get bullish

[frostyboy]

...past 2020 confirmed, is the point to get bullish

Hoop: Yep risky times at this level

I find looking at the leaders help. From looking at some of them; if the SPX goes past 2020 this week, it probably won't have legs to go much higher. This is why I really would like to increase my shorts or go short (if I don't cover my existing position) if the SPX500 futures are north of 2,000 to this coming NYSE open.
Some leaders:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=V&p...=1444255377655
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=BAB...=1444255403148
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=AAP...=1444255474236
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=C&p...=1444255726070
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=JNJ...=1444255778108

I don't have an opinion oil but it will be hard for SPX500 to go north of 2000 without oil going up
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=USO...=1444255494219

[Hoop]

Hoop: Yep risky times at this level

I find looking at the leaders help. From looking at some of them; if the SPX goes past 2020 this week, it probably won't have legs to go much higher. This is why I really would like to increase my shorts or go short (if I don't cover my existing position) if the SPX500 futures are north of 2,000 to this coming NYSE open.
Some leaders:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=V&p...=1444255377655
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=BAB...=1444255403148
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=AAP...=1444255474236
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=C&p...=1444255726070
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=JNJ...=1444255778108

I don't have an opinion oil but it will be hard for SPX500 to go north of 2000 without oil going up
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=USO...=1444255494219

Hmmm ..they are all near their respective resistance levels...

Frosty boy I had to add www. in front of your urls to open them

[frostyboy]

Hmmm ..they are all near their respective resistance levels...

Frosty boy I had to add www. in front of your urls to open them

Sorry about that image thing.

If the SPX500 is just above its resistance level, but the leaders are just below their resistance levels, the SPX break up is a fake out.

I saw this in phase 1 of bear 2007/2008 when the SPX500 did a rally to 1458 ,finishing with a spinning top above resistance level that a few turned bullish at. Today the leaders are more of a mixed bag in regards to resistance compared to 2007/2008.

AT 1986 I covered half of the shorts I was holding, which now looks to early(1983)

[Hoop]

Yes Frostboy the fake out when the bulls apply their limited buying pressure to get the index past that resistance point which defines the sucker rally...

Looking at the S&P500 from another angle

Have a look here Frostyboy.....http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$NYA200R.

NYA200R is the NYSE percent of stocks above their MA200...presently, its rather low (28%) as expected (For those in the Bull cycle camp, its not unusual to see <10% during a decent bull market correction). The NYA200R seems to be rallying again after its throwback to test the bottom (15.74%)....Observe the bullish island on the Candlestick weekly chart....Beneath is the PF chart which shows a breakout....but the target marked in as of "now" is 48%, this is a lower high, indicative that the new rally could be the sucker variety usually associated with cyclic Bear market cycles....That P&F 48% target would translate to about 2040/60ish...A bit higher than Ananda's 2020 intra day peak resistance and the 2035 gap resistance area..

But before the above scenario can happen, the S&P500 has to jump a very large hurdle (~1996)...but if it does go north of 2000 we could see that point in time when the Bear cycle brigade will have to endure a period of noisy Bulls chanting I told you so...

[blackcap]

Im not chanting yet but.... S&P is above 2000

[Hoop]

Im not chanting yet but.... S&P is above 2000

It was hard writing my post last night...The TA was showing bullish signs of a resistance breakout yet as I was writing the Wall St futures (-0.4%) were tanking down from the 1996 resistance....but as usual in times of upset Mother Yellen comes to the rescue with a cuddle and soothing words..

Well... Wall St knows the earnings may be under pressure with this reporting round due to kick off.....Alcoa a lightweight metals manufacturer is the first kid of the block and came in with a poor result after the market closed..Alcoa futures dived down..The chart shows Alcoa as a cyclical stock presently struggling to get itself out of a newly formed trough..

Hmmm I wonder how Mr Market is going to react to the possibility of a poor reporting period

[frostyboy]

2000 cleared, phew it was just a healthy correction in a bull market : )

Todays headlines from http://www.marketwatch.com/