Sometimes you have to pay for your education--i should have known better --was all out but went for the bait.
I should have seen the omen when I was talking to a neighbour and he told me never again (AIR)as they froze on the way back from Hawaii (just like we have done several times before --more than a coincidence.) Hell,I dont even like air New Zealand--they are a mediocre airline touting themselves as premium,and charging accordingly)
I wont tolerate more than a 5% loss though --im out (I may be a slow learner in one way --but not that way--Im not afraid to cut my loses,for better or worse)...nevertheless good luck to all
I was out and came back in as well Skid. I've learnt a few lessons along the way too (and still learning) but the ones I remember well are those occasions when I sold too early - only for the share to recover and head back into green territory. There are no doubt times when it just keeps going south and never recovers but I think those are fewer than those who dip and then recover. I guess it depends on the type of business it is. The one share I followed all the way down was Chorus. I bought some at $2.60 and then it went south. I bought some more at $1.87 when it looked like it had bottomed and then it went down to $1.30's. Then it came back and I finally sold when it was in the low $3's. I should have hung on coz now it's just over $4 (another lesson). Not sure if this one was an exception to the rule but I'm now a little hesitant to sell too soon given previous experiences.
I'm down 11.3% on AIR today and 17.5% on NZR but overall - my portfolio is only down 2.4%. So for me - I'm gonna hang in there as I think AIR is still fundamentally sound (albeit 2017 doesn't look as bright as 2015/16). I might even add a couple more companies to increase my portfolios diversity so as to balance the winners and losers a bit more.
Plenty of weak holders to shake out yet, good things take time aye, patience not panic required. PS-Mickey im down 11%on Air and 16% NZR so your not alone.
I was out and came back in as well Skid. I've learnt a few lessons along the way too (and still learning) but the ones I remember well are those occasions when I sold too early - only for the share to recover and head back into green territory. There are no doubt times when it just keeps going south and never recovers but I think those are fewer than those who dip and then recover. I guess it depends on the type of business it is. The one share I followed all the way down was Chorus. I bought some at $2.60 and then it went south. I bought some more at $1.87 when it looked like it had bottomed and then it went down to $1.30's. Then it came back and I finally sold when it was in the low $3's. I should have hung on coz now it's just over $4 (another lesson). Not sure if this one was an exception to the rule but I'm now a little hesitant to sell too soon given previous experiences.
I'm down 11.3% on AIR today and 17.5% on NZR but overall - my portfolio is only down 2.4%. So for me - I'm gonna hang in there as I think AIR is still fundamentally sound (albeit 2017 doesn't look as bright as 2015/16). I might even add a couple more companies to increase my portfolios diversity so as to balance the winners and losers a bit more.
Happy to take onboard advice from others.
You may be right --only time will tell--for me there are a number of things Im not liking in the market as a whole and although AIR may still be fundamentally sound,to many things are pointing in the wrong direction for my liking--It can be @$2 and be fundamentally sound--it aint going broke,but the lofty days may well be over as they are not on easy street anymore imo.
From where im sitting they operate on a strategy of charging premium prices, so we will see if that keeps on working for them in this new environment.
For me ,in this environment a smallish loss and a potential lost opportunity is better than possibly a big loss and the game is never really over--there is always possible opportunities at a much lower price...never know.
My dosh is sitting in my share acc.-yours is sitting in AIR shares--thats the only difference atm.
Can't get this chart out of my mind - it keeps on coming back to haunt me
Didn't want to ruin punters days completely by adding another steep up curve pre 2007
That was a couple weeks ago - chart that went with it below
Somebody just PM'd me and said hey winner your red line ends at 245 which is spooky
But I was being lazy at the time - in the context of a true cyclical that red line possibly will continue to go down ..... sometime in the future to somewhere where it started (but possibly higher because even cyclicals can cycle higher)
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
An OBV chart be interesting for AIR - doesn't that tell whether the smart money is buying or exiting?
Still a great trading share, to be honest i was surprised the SP didn't drop like a stone with initial VAH news, it was and is still unlikely they will sell for a wind fall or come out of it well. Australian market has been cutting back capacity all this year. It gave a golden opportunity for Shareholders to exit. Where the SP is at now looks fully price in. Will it overshoot even more?
Originally Posted by skid
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